Predictions: when will Kerry drop out

I just can't see Kerry winning NH. The newest poll has him behind by 30%. 42% (Dean) to 12% (Kerry). 9% goes to Clark. Which means that Kerry may even finish third.

I just can't see Kerry sustain such a humiliation. Coming in second is not enough when you're from MA. By the way, he trails Dean there too.

I see Clark as the only man who can potentially stop Dean. If he comes in second and wins South Carolina. There is a chance for Clark. If he finishes third in NH and loses SC he's done too.

I think Kerry is smart enough to see the writing on the wall. Will he put his house up to win the NH primary and then lose everywhere else?

Kerry is done. So the question is, when will he withdraw?

He still has a bigger chance than some of the other guys.

We are trying to stop Bush, not Dean. Never lose sight of that.

Does he have a death wish? He will be murdered in the press if he loses NH. That's what people here don't realize. These polls will change dramatically after the first couple of primaries.

Remember 2000. McCain was at about 10% in the polls nationally and jumped to like 33% after winning New Hampshire.

There will be a vaccuum after that. The first couple of primaries will separate the men from the boys.

damn good point!!!!

But don't tell anyone else that. ;)

I've heard that before but don't buy it. Gepthardt was always supposed to win Iowa. So even if he does, it won't make a hoot difference if Dean comes in a strong second. Which he certainly will, if he doesn't take the whole thing.

Then where will Gept go?

Dean will certainly win NH. And the media will keep talking about him. No one will be talking about Gept. who will probably finish fourth or fifth.

Then South Carolina and some western states. Gept won't win any of those either.

One week after New Hampshire, three statesneighboring Missouri have their primaries. Gephardt will do very well there, and this will carry him a ways.

MONEY talks!

Please note that Gephardt's funds are painfully low.


He's going to get bitch slapped (monetarily) by Dean in Iowa in the coming weeks.

Gephardt this quarter -> 750k
Dean this quarter -> 8-10 million (perhaps more)


No matter how good a candidate Gephardt is, know that MONEY talks. And in this case, it screams.

Iowa + Gephardt win = 50 mill in free airtime

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February 3

Arizona -- Dean
Delaware -- Dean or Lieberman
Missouri -- Gep
New Mexico -- Dean
North Dakota -- Gephardt
South Carolina -- Gephardt in at least top three
Oklahoma -- Gephardt 1st or second

February 7
Michigan -- Gep
Washington -- Dean?

Gephardt would beat Dean in Michigan. And that question mark beside Washington is laughable. Dean's lead there is HUGE. And the last time I checked, Dean was ahead of Gephardt in SC.

Clark is leading in SC and he is doing what he can to get the rest of the states on Super Tuesday.

You know damn well that Gep is going nowhere. Dems will never vote for someone without Foreign Policy experience to counter Bush.

The Gephardt scenario is about as objective as one can make it. Democratic Underground isn't representative of real-life Democrats, you know.

Look at the numbers, and do the math.

"Dems will never vote for someone without Foreign Policy experience to counter Bush."

Dude, this is a liberal primary. Dodging the draft, for instance, is like a badge of honor.

A fitting end to his career would be to defeat Mitt Romney in 2006. Unfortunately, Kerry has a giant ego and he'll probably stay in the presidential race until he is utterly destroyed.

I've always been scared shitless when my candidate is 30% ahead of his nearest rival.

This I really want to hear.

good response to that tired canard.

and may not do as badly as we now think he will in NH. Plus, he has the money to continue as long as he judges feasible. A lot of Democrats have a very high opinion of Sen. Kerry, so I wouldn't count him out too soon. (Btw, I am a very committed Dean supporter.)

Just a kindly suggestion.