Dean has a Slight Lead in SC and FL

Dean Leads in SC and FL
From National Journal's Hotline (subscription required):

Dean “has taken a slight lead” in SC over John Edwards in a new Zogby poll that found “no clear favorite” — Dean had 11%; Lieberman and Clark 9%; Edwards, Al Sharpton, Dick Gephardt 7%; John Kerry 4%; Carol Moseley Braun 3%; and Dennis Kucinich .3%.

Dean now “leads” in FL, with 16%, compared to 15% for Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman. The polling company poll for Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times also found that Pres. Bush would beat the five leading Dems in head-to-head matchups by 8-18%.

http://blog.deanforamerica.com

realized that under Dean their Taxes are gonna go up yet. Middle Class folks that is. Don't worry, their gonna figure it out. If you think Dean is going to win Florida or South Carolina with a Middle Class Tax increase, your dreaming....

I't O.K. to keep up hope anyway. I don't even think you'll be California Dreaming concerning that one issue.

and everything else we had in terms of property taxes, education taxes, and health care costs went up, so the tax cut which the average was $300, really didn't offset that.

Anyone in the middle class who has kids got a tax cut. I have a friend who has four kids that got a huge break because of the increases in the child credit.

Middle class families, especially those with a lot of kids, definitely saw a tax break. Single people and married couples without kids didn't see much at all. Hence, the averages.

You can repeat Dean's "but your other taxes went up" mantra all you want - while it's certainly true, many voters will have a very difficult time seeing it that way. Politics is all about sound bytes and the media is going to relentlessly claim that "Dean wants to raise your taxes" whether it's a legitimate claim or not.

Chimpy's tax cuts may have made it a tad easier for middle class families to raise their kids, but it will make it a lot harder for those kids to raise theirs a few years down the line.

Fixing the mess Bush has made is going to take years, if not decades.

It is simply Bush foolery. Pay a little less now, so that you're kids can pay alot more later (all that interest). We are mortgaging an entire generation here.

If people don't understand that, then it is up to the successful candidate to teach them and expose Bush.

In most interpretations of the term, there really was a tax cut. A married couple I know who has four kids is going to save thousands in taxes this year. Sounds like a tax cut to me. Claiming otherwise is misleading, even when framed in the argument that other taxes were increased or that future generations will be paying for it.

I think that claiming that there was no tax cut is a bad strategy. Most people are aware that the tax cuts caused huge deficits and will likely hurt the economy for decades.

That should be the message, not a misguided claim that there was no tax cut in the first place. I realize that that's Dean's message, but I don't think it's going to be wildly successful.

:shrug:

$60,000 or so a year. They're getting a HUGE tax cut.

Don't get me wrong - I think the tax cuts were a horrible idea and were dreadfully biased toward the rich. But, claiming that no one in the middle class got a tax cut is just plain false.

Because it can be demonstrated that the middle class tax cut is not fair to everyone in the middle class. And those of US in the middle class who got SQUAT know we got SQUAT. And people tend to be fair minded in public, even if they aren't here.

I said that claiming that no one in the middle class got a tax cut is plainly false. Most couples in the middle class with kids got a tax cut; some of them were huge.

Everyone bitches about Bush manipulating words to mean what he wants them to mean. Claiming that there was no tax cut for the middle class because of the increase in taxes elsewhere is just as misleading. There most certainly was a tax cut. Was it fair? Of course not. Did I ever say it was? Nope.

Don't get me wrong - the tax cuts were a terrible idea and were intended for no one but the rich. Any benefits the middle class received were merely by accident or because of the efforts of Democrats in Congress.

Zip, zero, nadda, nothing. I'm a single mother and the only tax break I get is Earned Income Credit. I'm glad I don't live in NH and own a home, that's for sure. Their property taxes went up statewide by over $100 million in one year thanks to Bush's income tax cuts for the people who don't really need them as much as they need to be able to afford their property taxes so they don't end up losing their home.

Oh, and thank you Howard Dean for my annual renters rebate tax break. Now THAT is the kind of tax policy that REALLY helps people.

And it is off the mark IMO. Indeed the state and local taxes will make a big difference to people. When you get a little (and I do mean little) bit less out of your check each month, it is not a big thing. But when that great big property tax bill shows up even bigger than before, that is noticable.

In a middle class household it is those tough nuts to crack, the bigger lump sums like property tax bills, that hurt. When they get bigger and heavier they are much more noticable than that extra $14 every two weeks that you keep in your check.

Those "refund checks" some families got were really advances on their tax refunds. They'll be long forgotten as things get more difficult. With record levels of debt accumulated by Americans, I expect that will be real soon.

Julie

I'm not stating my opinion. It is a FACT that everyone who has kids and makes enough money for it to matter got a tax cut in the form of an increased child credit.

Do you dispute that?

Here's an extreme example: a middle-class couple in South Dakota with 5 kids lives in a $70,000 house in a small town. 5 kids x $400 increase = $2,000, assuming they make enough money to write off $2,000 in taxes.

Tell me again why that's not a tax cut?

Further, because SD (like many states) has NO state or local income taxes, their income tax liability is unaffected. An increase in personal property taxes won't come anywhere near that $2,000. In fact, property taxes on the entire house will likely be under $2,000.

I'm sorry, but this whole "there was no middle class tax cut" claim is a crock. Don't get me wrong - the tax cuts were a horrible idea and the only middle class benefits were an accidental side effect, but claiming there was no tax cut is flat out wrong.

it's how it's going to be perceived by people in South Carolina, and Florida. A rollback of the entire Bush Tax package is nothing more than a losing strategy for Dean in the South, period.

Also...please note a repeat of what I posted yesterday...South Carolina has the highest percentage of Veterans per capita than any state in the nation, with Florida coming in second. Dean has only started making grass-roots in roads into South Carolina. Edwards is the most organized, and Clark is already formally on the ground as well.

Nope, S.C. will be Dean's Gettysburg with an opposite outcome this time.

Most of them are Republicans (and won't be voting in our primary), and besides, most supported AWOL Bush over war-hero McCain in 2000. I doubt they're going to come out in force to save libruls like Kerry or Clark. Mark my words: Howard Dean will be the 2004 presidential nominee.

but it won't be due to South Carolina, and I'll tell ya what there are a hell of a lot of pissed off Vets in South Carolina because of Bush's Veteran's policies, and even more in Florida. But, you make my point for me...it will be the Dean's campaign's elitist attitude that will cause them not to take Southerners and Veterans seriously, and it will be their bitter end in the south.

has EVER been "due to South Carolina"????

insider in SC? :eyes:

But I have read a great deal about that state and its political landscape.

Your state has crossover voting, and they can vote however they want in the election.

I'll repeat one of my posts from earlier.

I think Dean left himself an out on the tax issue in the general elcetion by saying he would repeal the Bush tax cuts--that does not mean he would not offer up his own more progressive plan of taxation. Can you imagine the power of a message of MORE money to the middle class when people are actually paying attention. This is just a hunch. I know nothing for sure.

better than what he is currently doing. If he doesn't start speaking to the Middle Class and soon concerning this one issue, I fear he is finished among southern states and swing voters. He may have a "win without the south" national strategy, but with the number of candidates running for the nomination, how is he going to do it without the south and without swing/undecided voters, the most being middle class Americans? Don't get me wrong, I like Howard Dean as well, but I support Wesley Clark because he specifically says that he will repeal the Bush tax cuts for people who earn over $200,000 a year, and leave Middle Class America's current taxes alone. You can't get much more specific than that.

Dean says that he will repeal the entire Bush tax package, and when asked wouldn't that be raising taxes on middle class Americans he still stood firm an said the whole thing has to go.

O.K. I know that individual state sales taxes, property taxes, etc... have increased for middle class Americans but he needs to specifically express, very clearly how middle class Americans are going to benefit from his economic strategy. Right now to the average Joe it looks like their taxes are going to go up, period.

Am I still missing something here? I mean the GOP and Rove are excellent at smoke and mirrors, and people are damn tired of it, they want specifics for once.

Howard Dean's campaign MUST spell out the tax shift message better than they have so far. I am confident they will.

One point all Democrats need to make is that the increased child tax credit is really the Democratic Tax Cut! The one part of the tax cuts which has had a significant benefit for the middle class was put in the bill because the Democrats insisted on it (it was never part of the Bush proposal -- he was too busy focusing on cutting exactly those taxes which have the biggest effect on his welathy contributors (i.e., the highest marginal rates, dividends, and estate taxes). I suggest Dean distinguishes the child tax credit as the Democratic tax cut and clarify that he wants to roll back "Bush tax cuts" which is everything else.

Secondly, Dean should hammer on the fact that Bush claims that the deficits will vanish in ten years, but his "rosy scenario" is predicated on the tax cuts automatically expiring (which they will currently do under the sunset provisions). Furthermore, the RNC wants to refer to Dean's proposal to roll-back the tax cuts as a tax increase. If we use that definition, then Bush supports a tax increase everytime he claims that the deficits are temporary (since his plan includes the pre-planned rollback of the cuts). We need to make Bush answer the question, "Are you for tax increases or permanent deficits?" We cannot allow Bush to continue his "fuzzy math".

Regards,
Schmendrick

since they've done work for the dean campaign. sorry, but there's no way this poll is unbiased

Innnnnterrrressstiiiing........;-)

;-)

Break out the DEAN IS REPUBLICAN meme!

;-)

Give it a rest. Zogby is one of the most respected polling authorities on the map. Don't hate them just because they might not be telling you what you want to hear.

it's all over.

Fat lady has sung.

;-)

You are correct. It's over. BIG IF. Lots of work to be done.

:wtf: this really caught me off guard.

it's just that it REALLY suprised me.

but congratulations.

:hi:

Some of us from NC and GA have been making regular trips to SC to help the effort.

It's really something to see people take these matters into their own hands. Thousands of people traveling thousands of miles. Knocking on doors.

It turns out wee Dean fans are smart, intelligent, and well meaning.

It also appears that we make compelling arguments.

Go us!

Dean in SC---so that'll definitely help him with the black community there.

His father certainly would.

in Congress, and if he endorses Dean in S.C., trust me, the ripples will be felt in the black community.

but it's good news about Dean's "slight" lead. ;-)

SC is right next to NC, and was supposed to be the state that would help him break out from the middle of the pack. If he loses NC, he is finished.

;-)

Some of us expect to see Clarks numbers get much better over the next couple weeks, his late start, campaign ads running for 1-3 weeks. A case can be made that all things considered he is doing remarkably well.

Good luck to everyone's pick and May the best man win.

He's polling second, 2 points behind Dean (well within the MoE), and there's still a lot of campaigning to be done.

Other polls have Clark out in front in SC, so as a Clark supporter, I don't see this as bad news at all.

The only candidate who should be gripping a little is Edwards, who really needs to start protecting his "home turf"...

whereas Clark has been doing some campaigning there, and he's still two points behind Dean. Dean's opening offices there soon, hiring staff, and the endorsement by Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. is really going to help Dean a lot. I expect him to rise in the polls when he starts to do heavy campaigning there. ;-)

are the places where Dean isn't campaigning yet.... look at NH and Iowa to see what happens when teh Dean machine focuses on a state.

What are we up to... about 50,000 hand wirtten letters so far sent to Iowa and NH? We have so many people offering to help now that some folks are being redirected to help in the campaigns of local dems running for congress and state level positions.

It's a wash. Clark has had his office there a bit longer, but outside of a couple of speeches, it's not like he's targeted that state yet.

Like Dean, he's been relying on surrogates to get his message out there.

I think a margin of error lead in a single poll is hardly anything to get too worked up about one way or the other :)

:shrug: I'd call that active campaigning.

I hadn't heard Clark was starting ads in SC.

Still, I wouldn't say this poll is bad news - it puts my man in a virtual tie for the lead, and other polls have him doing even stronger.

I learned long ago not to put too much faith in a Zogby poll (or any single poll, for that matter). :)

:hi:

For some reason last night I kept on thinking "Dean is going to be ahead in SC soon." I don't know where the thought came from, but it just kept on popping up in my head.

;-)

All the scuttlebutt I've heard was that Edwards was polling a lot stronger in SC.

Still very early, and very tight. But I would've guessed he'd be doing better than 7% at this point in his neighboring state.

I wonder if this poll was directed at likely primary voters, or just a general straw poll...

:-)

and my hubby runs the CharlestonforDean website. I think we are doing fine and are motivated. Most of us are transplants and have moved here due to weather, medical conditions or cash flow. I see very few locals following Dean but most of the real locals are republicans but don't understand why but they are.

We have a huge flux of people yearly. It use to be Florida but now we are the retirement kingdom. We actually had my small town listed as one of the top places to retire , I believe published in Fortune mag. Edwards appeals to the locals but they are mostly spoken for.

I'm in Chas. too.

I think you'll find, as you talk to more and more people in the area, that there are quite a few non-repubs here.

Very good-looking site your husband has going there. I'll definitely be exploring it. I'm still undecided - leaning Dean one day, Clark the next, Kerry from time to time, and wishing the country was ready for Kucinich.

And hey, welcome to Charleston!

Would love to know if the states that have the
biggest Dean Meetups have the largest support
for him.
Hard to tell anything now because no vote has
been cast....

New York City (7442 members)
Washington, DC (4723)
Boston, MA (3425)
Seattle, WA (3388)
Chicago, IL (3279)
Portland, OR (2876)
San Francisco, CA (2738)
Austin, TX (2374)
Minneapolis, MN (2371)
Burlington, VT (2320)
Alameda County, CA (2281)
Philadelphia, PA (2237)
Denver, CO (1869)
Atlanta, GA (1846)
Hollywood-East LA, CA (1801)
Santa Monica, CA (1757)
Baltimore, MD (1677)
San Diego, CA (1613)
Raleigh-Durham, NC (1584)
Houston, TX (1560)
Phoenix, AZ (1488)
Dallas-Plano, TX (1411)
Northern Virginia (1298)
Montgomery County, MD (1291)
Orange County, CA (1223)
Columbus, OH (1202)
Santa Clara County, CA (1201)
Kansas City, MO (1178)
North Suburban Chicago, IL (1171)
St. Louis, MO (1166)
San Fernando Valley, CA (1146)
Pittsburgh, PA (1136)
Sacramento, CA (1135)
St. Paul, MN (1077)
Detroit, MI (1069)
Albany, NY (922)
Manchester, NH (911)
Nashville, TN (901)
Madison, WI (855)
Cleveland, OH (853)
Tucson, AZ (847)
Hartford, CT (836)
Providence, RI (832)
Milwaukee, WI (808)
Ann Arbor, MI (772)
Suffolk County, NY (766)
Newark-Jersey City, NJ (759)
Santa Rosa, CA (758)
Dade County, FL (752)
Boulder, CO (745)
Northern NJ (739)
Orlando, FL (736)
Cincinnati, OH (721)
New Haven, CT (715)
Tampa, FL (708)
Broward County, FL (699)
Fairfield County, CT (688)
San Antonio, TX (679)
Portland, ME (677)
Westchester, NY (663)
Bellevue-East Side, WA (657)
Springfield, MA (654)
New Orleans, LA (652)
Indianapolis, IN (646)
Marin County, CA (639)
Rochester, NY (624)
Lowell, MA (608)
Louisville, KY (596)
Albuquerque, NM (590)
Trenton, NJ (587)
St. Pete-Clearwater, FL (585)
Salt Lake City, UT (576)
Des Moines, IA (557)
Fort Worth, TX (557)
Lebanon, NH (555)
San Mateo County, CA (546)
Charlotte, NC (544)
Oklahoma City, OK (541)
Pasadena, CA (533)
West Palm Beach, FL (532)
Everett, WA (523)
Middlesex County, NJ (518)
San Diego North County, CA (514)
Las Vegas, NV (505)
Richmond, VA (500)
Marietta-Roswell, GA (492)
Poughkeepsie, NY (476)
Greensboro, NC (473)
Long Beach, CA (472)
Riverside, CA (462)
Asheville, NC (455)
Buffalo, NY (453)
Wheaton, IL (450)
Eugene, OR (444)
Worcester, MA (427)
Spokane, WA (418)
Keene, NH (411)
Syracuse, NY (409)
Lexington, KY (407)
Ithaca, NY (404)

that Dean will be competitive in the south. If he has momentum from Iowa and NH, I can see him winning SC.

but he's BARELY even been campaigning in SC! But he's about to hit it hard, hiring staff there, opening offices there, and he'll even be there in a few days in Columbia with Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Watch for his numbers there to shoot up very soon.

some heads to explode on this website if that happens.

;-)

Drawing in the South bit by bit.

;-)

You are so tireless in your support - it's amazing.

*crosses fingers*

In Charleston market, anyway.

Actually, the only ads I've seen locally are for Edwards, running for a while now, and for Clark, fisrt seen this past week.

Clark and Lieberman were both here in Chas. last Sunday, btw. Clark was opening a local office, and the news report showed him outside on a stage speaking to what looked like a fairly large crowd. Then they cut to Lieberman in a grocery store standing behind two shopping carts - one cart overflowing, and one empty. He was explaining how the empty cart exemplified the current regime (my word), and how the full cart exemplified how good things would be under his admin. No offense to any JL supporters, but that 15sec clip of him almost had me dozing off. I saw very few people there.

FWIW

"We see a further retreat by other candidates into a 1- or 2- state strategy," Trippi continued. "However, we are continuing with our 50-state strategy, because that is the only strategy that can win the nomination and defeat George Bush in the general election.

"Continuing with that strategy, beginning on Monday we will begin a sustained television ad buy in South Carolina, and we'll stay on the air through the South Carolina primary. Also on Monday we'll go up on the air in New Mexico, and we'll stay up through February 3rd. In both states we're adding considerable resouces in terms of organization and grassroots efforts on the ground. And within the next 7 to 10 days, we'll also go up in the state of Arizona and the state of Oklahoma. Those two will also stay up until the elections there.

"We have plans for Missouri, Delaware, and North Dakota. As we develop those plans we'll make you aware of them...........Also on Sunday, we'll be starting a 30-minute program in Madison, Wisconsin. The show has bio information on the Governor, talks about his positions, and encourages people to join our grassroots efforts. We're building a strong grassroots campaign in Wisconsin, and this is an idea that came from our Internet supporters. Someone suggested it on the blog as a way to reach out to more people, and we thought it was an interesting idea and we decided to try it. If it works, we'll expand the program into other states like Washington to continue building national support for Dean, but the first instance of that is in Wisconsin this Sunday."-----Joe Trippi

I'm still undecided, but have good feelings about Dean.

My mom, whose more anti-Dem than pro-repub, and who has sworn she would never vote for a Democrat (rush made her hate Clinton) says good things about Dean, sincerely. Blows my mind when she does that.

Thanks for the info.

I should say good on Dean though for gaining in SC in this poll.
I am surprised but good on Dean.

It's funny though, whenever anyone has a poll where their guy's
number looks the biggest, they are right there to say "so and so
leads..." irregardless of the MOE. Clarkies are no better than
the Deanies on this for the most part so this is a not a slam
against Slinkerwink.

;-) I said that they were in a statistical dead heat even though Dean has a slight lead. If I'd really wanted to pump it up, I could've said, "Dean has a MAJOR lead" but at least I'm politically realistic.

if he actually finishes behind Braun and Kucinich? Anyone? :)

insisted that New Hampshire was still up for grabs----the Kerry campaign is so blind to reality.

Dean takes slightlead over Edwards....

Then the second paragraph shows Clark within the margin of error.

Hmmmmm...an accurate first sentence would read: "A new poll shows a three way statistical tie in SC and FL, with Edwards in third place..."

it is a "slight lead"-----are you saying that the poll is biased now? Geee....now the Clarkites are claiming every poll is biased when Dean comes on top ;-)

The Feldman Group poll for Greenville Magazine has Edwards in the lead in South Carolina @ 17%. Guess who is second?

Mr. Sharpton!