How Clark can win the Dem nomination...

As many of you know, I am a staunch Dean supporter. I still haven't changed my mind. But the belief that Dean is unbeatable is simply wrong.

Dean will almost certainly win the New Hampshire Primary. But that doesn't mean that he has the whole thing locked up.

Here's how I see the scenerio:

If Dean wins Iowa, then Gephardt is out. Gep has to win Iowa. No points for second place.

Dean/Kerry have to win New Hampshire. Again, no points for second place.

I think either Clark or Lieberman has to win South Carolina.


The easiest way to the nomination is still with Dean. If he wins the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries...then he wins the nomination right there and then.

However,

If Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire. And if Clark surpasses Kerry as number two in New Hampshire (which is entirely possible) then that will breathe life into the Clark campaign.

It will become a race between Howard Dean and Wesley Clark. Then the South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, Delaware and South Dakota primaries will become very important.

If Clark wins SC and the majority of the others - he will have the momentum. If Dean does, he will become unstoppable.

If Clark wins big on this night, then a few days later the primaries in Michigan and Washington will become crucial.

If Clark wins Michigan he will become the frontrunner.

During these primaries it is certain that the vast majority of candidates will drop out. If Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman, Edwards and even Sharpton throw their support behind Clark - you may see a huge lift in his poll numbers.

At this point the Clark campaign may become unstoppable.

Either way, I see the race coming down to Dean and Clark.

The only person with a shot outside these two is Gephardt. If he wins Iowa and does well in Missouri, South Dakota, Oklahoma, etc. He may have some momentum to go on. Although, I still don't see him winning the whole nomination.

Media's lack of patience with the primaroes notwithstanding, primaries did not start yet. We did in 2 months more than most didn in over 1 year. And picking up steam - in spite the cone of silence media put on us (ex polls where Clark leads - NBC/Wall street heve NOT been reported)

Thank you. I enjoy reading all of the possible scenarios.

then win Tennessee, and do well in Virginia and Michigan a week later, particularly if gephardt is out by then,

this would put him easily on an even keel with Dean going into Super Tuesday. I can definetly see him winning California and Georgia, with second in NY.

If it isn't over by then and it still looks like Dean and Clark are split, then Clark would clobber him in the next set of primaries.

on 3/9, it's TX, LA, MS, and FL

and I think he could lock up the nomination. Gotta hand it to Dean - I do love the fire in his belly. But I don't think he's going to be successful here in the south.

let him be involved in the campaign for Clark by all means. He can command his followers in Iowa and New Hampshire, both states republicans are hoping to win.

Thanks for the thoughtful breakdown...