My Thoughts about the California Recall

Should Davis actually be voted out, I have a very strong feeling that the Democrats will be given a very big gift. I am sure that at least 2 major candidates--Arnold, Issa, Riordan, and Simon--will appear on the ballot against one another. And when you consider the fact that there are bound to be a few nobodies that siphon off even more votes for the major Republicans, Davis might be be governor come November. They'll have to do nothing more than find a popular Democrat and they'll have the govenorship.

Of course, that's if Davis is voted out of office.

... ex-husband of Arianna, Republican, multi-millionaire, former congressman.

Issa will almost definitely be on the ballot, and it seems to me that he has no chance unless the votes get spread REALLY thin.

However, if people vote "Yes" on the recall, then Davis is out. Doesn't matter if there are 100 Republicans on the ballot vying to replace him.

So, the main things now are:

1) Defeat the recall effort. Get people to vote "No"

2) Get people to unify behind a single Democratic/Liberal candidate to replace Davis in case he is recalled.

3) Do whatever we can to ensure an accurate counting of the votes.

I keep forgetting that. Why? I don't know.

Let me rephrase my statements.

If things get really bad, and it's clear Davis will lose, and some other Democrat, like Feinstein, is on the ballot, I think he or she would win.

I look at it two ways. Either the NATIONAL DNC has decided to draw the line in California by keeping any DEMS off the Ballot. OR we could go down in a BIG THUD. With only Republicans on the Ballot a Republican is sure to win. (Unless ever DEM that votes NOT to recall Davis ALSO votes for the Green Canidate or some other candidate. THe first is a BIG risk BUT the rewards are great. Basically we would get a huge BOOST by beating back a CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT. Resisting temptation to get a DEM to run is really the way to go. Because we need momentum, and the Repukes are pumping themselves up so high that the crash would be all the more fatal. One more thing. With a chance to VOTE NO on the recall and ALSO vote for someone to replace Davis should he loose, the Party should run a stealth campaign to have all people also vote for either an acceptable candidate or someone/anyone that is not a Repuke. Davis is sure to get at least 40% of the people to VOTE NO. If everyone of them votes for the same person on the candidate ballot there is not a chance of them loosing.

I think the Republicans in California are going to pay dearly for this.

... they just may not be big-name Dems or political insiders or what have you. All you have to do is plunk down $3500 or collect 10k signatures to get on the ballot. I considered doing so myself, but I think that ultimately would just play into the Republicans' hands.

Either way, note that I said "Democrat/Liberal" in my original post. If there is some way to get a very large chunk of the left to unite behind a single candidate, be it Democrat, Green, Peace & Freedom, or whatever... then we've got to do it.

thats behind our governor Gray davis .fuck this other bullshit

The polls show that 51% of the people will vote for the recall and 42% will vote against. Assuming the Democrats run a single candidate and that everyone who votes no votes for the Democrat, we get a Demcorat that gets 42%, and probably wins the election because Arnold and Issa will split the Republican vote.

However, the people voted for Davis in 2002 (an now regret it) and thus he should never be replaced, even by a more progressive Dem. Do I get that right?

is not a right wing chikenhawk and has the right to fight for his position, And likewise we have the right to recall any puke who arrempts to replace him. this is another coup attempt by sore loserman to steal another election and further destabilize a state hated by the gop because of its progessive govt.he is term limited. no doovers for puke scumbags.

As long as the voting and countnig machines are fair and everyone who wants to vote can vote, there's no stealing.

And recalls are meant to ensure that people whom the people don't like for reasons other than crime - e.g. not fulfilling campaign promises or not showing enough leadership skills - can be gotten out. If only we could do that to Congressmen and presidents...

P.S. call CA progressive when the three strikes law gets repealed.

"As long as the voting and countnig machines are fair and everyone who wants to vote can vote..."

The upcoming election to recall Gov. Gray Davis is raising fears of a Florida-style fiasco because counties have less than three months to get ready and are still in the middle of a switchover from punch ballots to electronic systems

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030725/ap_on_el_gu/davis_recall_voting_2

Counties across the state of California are scrambling to get ready for the recall election in October ... Many counties are worried about new computerized voting...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/kpix/20030725/lo_kpix/7302

partner dies that is progressive, I can sue for wrongful death if my partner is gay bashed to death, that is progressive Farm laborers can go to arbitration- that is labor law. too bad about 3 time felons i voted against that law, but it is hardly my criteria.my partner is now elegible for health insurance thru my company- that is more progessive than most of these states

This needs to be fought tooth and nail. It's a complete subversion of democracy to have some guy spend a million bucks to force the state to hold a 35 million dollar recall election after the Governor has suffered through years of corporate-sponsored smear campaigns.

However, fighting against the recall does not inherently mean we can't also support a replacement candidate.

...it depends on who the polls will indicate will replace him. If it's Camejo, then the ony thing I have to say to Davis is "so long, sucker." If it's Issa, then I'll probably force myself to vote for Davis.

As I said in another post:

This needs to be fought tooth and nail. It's a complete subversion of democracy to have some guy spend a million bucks to force the state to hold a 35 million dollar recall election after the Governor has suffered through years of corporate-sponsored smear campaigns.

who will be the Kingmaker? Bustamante is the only choice I will write him in. But then there's all the arianna people and the gop clone Camejo people many of them will vote for recall, foolishly thinking that they have a chance.

He was elected for heaven's sake. He should finish his term. Democratic elections are soon becoming a thing of the past.
Steal the Presidential election in Florida, and now steal one in
California, no big deal, right? Let a Democrat just try it once.

I am all for uniting against the recall.

However there will be another, separate question on the ballot. I feel it's good to be united on that front as well.

Why only unite on one ballot issue?

If we don't get behind a single candidate on the replacement ballot, then we're playing right into the Republicans' hands. That's the way they want the issue framed. That's what they've been pumping into the media. They're trying to ensure that they've only got one election to win/steal.

Solidly in our column. By putting the office of governor in play and basing the outcome on how many republicans run or if we can find a popular Democrat is too iffy a proposition.

If Davis can still resign and pass the office to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante it might be the best thing that could happen. We do not need a Senator to resign and run for governor of California, so the party is caught between hoping for the best and losing a critical player on the national scene.

whoever gets the most votes of all those idiots who put their name on the ballot wins.. Davis' name will not be one of them (this is how I understand it)

I hope to God people get out and vote and tell the repukes undermining the electoral process is not ok and shut the whole thing down.

See right above.

This is a recall election. There will be two questions on the ballot.

The first one is should Davis be recalled (Yes/No).

The second is who will replace him if he is recalled. These votes will not be talled if the NO vote carries on the first question.

Davis cannot be a candidate to replace himself. To remain in office, he must encourage Californians to vote NO.

The Democrats are determined not to run a replecement candidate. It's a very risky strategy. Insofar as it puts all the eggs in a single basket, it is a foolish one.

See right above.

They'll have to do nothing more than find a popular Democrat and they'll have the govenorship.

Like persuade the DNC to support that Democrat. Perhaps if Davis is racalled, the Democrats ought to recall Terry McAuliffe.

we dems chose Davis and WE want to keep him. A HALFWAY ACCEPTABLE DEM may cause more people to vote for recall than already are. with potentially the same result.

... there will probably be quite a few. Read my post above.

The should run a candidate who is sure to draw most of the votes from those who oppose the recall.

I agree that Davis should be retained, even if I'm not nuts about him. He has comitted no malfeasance. This is a partisan attempt to redo an election.

However, let's be realistic. Davis is very unpopular and a lot of those who vote in this election are going to think that just not liking Davis is good enough reason to remove him from office. His retention is no sure thing.

a reason to mark the recall box and further split our vote. cause believe it or not there will be Dems who will think that we will be able to pull that one big name dem idea off, not gonna happen, enter one enter all ,and we are through. Division is what you keep preaching.

1. Davis is unpopular. His survival is problematic regardless of who runs against him.

2. There will be two questions on the ballot. The first is whether Davis should be recalled. The second is who should replace him if he is.

3. The Democratic party -- so decreed by Terry McAuliffe, one of the wizards who brought the Democrats so much success last fall -- will not run a replacement candidate. That effectively reduces the two questions to one -- the one which the Democrats are more likely to lose.

4. If Davis is recalled (and that isn't a very big if), he will be replaced (if we're lucky) by someone like Peter Camejo or Arianna Huffington, but just as likely by someone like Darrell Issa or Bill Simon.

5. Polls constistantly show that Dianne Feinstein would save the day for the Democrats in any worst-case scenario.

In short, if you don't engineer a safety valve into this machine, it is likely to explode on you.

From a post of yours on another thread:

any gay person who does not support davis needs to be sent to stay in Texas, and any union person who does not needs to go to north carolina, and any Indian who doesn't needs to visit wyoming, and any chicano who doesnt support Davis needs also to visit TX.

If you think Davis is the only person in California who stands between California and the fascist wing of the Republican Party, then your strategy makes sense. However, you and I both know that isn't true.

Whether you or I like it or not, he's very likely to go down. If he's replaced by one of these yuppie fascists who have actively pushed the recall, it's all of our funerals. That will be especially true for those you name.

Also, in reference to your title, where have I ever said I want him out? I am voting NO on the recall. I will thank you to not put words in my mouth.

who is the Kingmaker? no time for a primary. Dianne wants her seat, what will prevent non top tier Dems from splitting thevote ?

However, polls have consistantly shown that Feinstein would easily win among replacement candidates.

Her presence on the ballot would not change my decision to vote NO on the recall. However, it would make me feel a lot better.

The mere presence of a 'mainstream' liberal on the 2nd ballot question can increase the likelihood that a Californian voter will vote in favor of the recall. Indeed, if the 'liberal' vote is split and the Repugnants exercise heavy-handed discipline and keep their number of candidates to one, it virtually assures that the recall will succeed and the Repugnant will prevail.

The key to understanding the positions taken, IMHO, is the realization that the 'left' is nowhere near as autocratic as the 'right'. The 'left' has almost no chance of keeping the number of 'left' alternatives to one. Zero is the only chance. Once just one Democrat appears on the ballot, the dike will break and leftists of all stripes will jump in.

The majority of California voters must be presented with a "parade of horribles" on the second question in order to gain the marginal "no" vote on recall.

A "safety valve" defuses the "parade of horribles" and offers a figleaf rationale for voting "yes". Furthermore, it's a virtual certainty that just a single "safety valve" would rapidly grow into a crowd.

The mere presence of a 'mainstream' liberal on the 2nd ballot question can increase the likelihood that a Californian voter will vote in favor of the recall. Indeed, if the 'liberal' vote is split and the Repugnants exercise heavy-handed discipline and keep their number of candidates to one, it virtually assures that the recall will succeed and the Repugnant will prevail.

Yes, it could. However, Davis' approval ratings are in the low twenties. There are a lot of people who are likely to vote to recall him regardless of whether or not there is a mainstream Democrat ready to take his place or not. Democrats should make their plans recognizing the possibility that Davis is going down.

The key to understanding the positions taken, IMHO, is the realization that the 'left' is nowhere near as autocratic as the 'right'. The 'left' has almost no chance of keeping the number of 'left' alternatives to one. Zero is the only chance. Once just one Democrat appears on the ballot, the dike will break and leftists of all stripes will jump in.

The Democrats appear to be disciplined at the moment. The same mechanism that is now keeping the Democrats from running anybody would keep them from running more than one candidate. Thankfully, the Republicans don't look too unitied right now. A single Democrat in whom anti-recall voters could select would easily frustrate the desires of the far right to seize the governor's office.

Polls up to now consistantly show that if Senator Feinstein were a replacement candidate, she would win.

Keep in mind that these same polls are also consistantly showing that Davis is going down.

I understand the strategy of not running a replacement candidate is to make the existing list of possible look as unpalatable as possible. Unfortunately, too many Californians find Davis unpalatable. The strategy isn't just risky under these circumatances, it's foolhardy.

Nothing could be further from the truth, IMHO, particularly in California. At this point, Huffington could be regarded by some as somewhat 'left'. To understand this, one must merely look at how ultra-right the prevailing Repugnants have become in California. This, of course, has marked their precipitous decline. Pete Wilson, Simon, Dornan, et. al. It's amazing to find these hydrophobes so close to the Pacific Ocean. In the Northeast, Feinstein would be running to the right of Lowell Weicker. In California, she's a 'liberal'. Jerry Brown, who's not even as far 'left' as Kucinich, is regarded as 'extreme' in California.

Again, in the other thread (my "Findlaw ..." thread") I've treated the 2002 Gubernatorial Election as though it were a 'recall' and see some very interesting numbers.

Time will tell. Prognostication is more art than science.

EDITED to add link

I hardly consider Dianne Feinstein "left" by any standard. In California, she's not a "liberal" but a centrist (Senator Boxer is a liberal).

Your Findlaw thread is very informative. Thank you.

... of Californians (I was one until 5 months ago) view DiFi as much or more 'left' than Gray Davis. I don't. You don't. I lived in Silicon Valley, but my cousins who live in SanDi ego (and are now, finally, anti-GOP) would certainly call her that and agree that 95% of their neighbors do also. That perception is what I allude to when I speak of 'left' alternatives on the ballot of (possible) replacements on a recall.

I'm often bemused that Jerry Brown is only seen on the "left-right" spectrum and is not seen for his northerly position on the 'authoritarian-libertarian' spectrum (a bit like DiFi who's to his right but about as northerly as Brown).

If either of us had any objective way of verifying that, and if I were a betting bunny, I'd take you up on that.

Actually, I regard them both as centrists. I believe most of those I speak to about these matters do as well.

but he's pro gay rights and pro-choice

THE VOTE IS TWOFOLD...VOTE YES/NO ON THE RECALL AND THEN VOTE FOR REPLACEMENT CANDIDATE... what is so hard to understand?

If no Dem or left-of-center candidate runs, then the Pukes could win with some utterly small fraction of the vote.

First, this is a one time vote. Winner take all, so to speak, is that correct???

Either the No's take it and Davis remains Governor.

Or, Yes takes it and the one with the highest votes is Governor. Is that right?

If that's right, they absolutely should run another Democrat. I don't see any way possible that there will be more total No votes than total Yes votes. If each yes candidate had to separately beat the total no to retain Davis, then the strategy would be good. Otherwise it really is a bad idea not to run a Democrat.

Either the No's take it and Davis remains Governor.

Or, Yes takes it and the one with the highest votes is Governor. Is that right?

That is correct.

If that's right, they absolutely should run another Democrat. I don't see any way possible that there will be more total No votes than total Yes votes. If each yes candidate had to separately beat the total no to retain Davis, then the strategy would be good. Otherwise it really is a bad idea not to run a Democrat.

That's what I'm saying. It is foolish for the Democrats to rely on the voters retaining a governor with an approval rating in the low twenties.

Personally, I don't thnk Davis should be recalled. The recall was instituted so that the people could directly remove a corrupt and incompetant official if the politicians do not. While I don't believe Davis is the best governor we could have, he is guilty of no malfeasance.

However, there will be a lot of people who vote who think that the current situation is sufficient evidence of malfeasance that Davis may not survive. The Democrats could make a move that will assure that a Democrat, not Darrell Issa or Bill Simon, will be the governor.

I will vote NO on the recall question. However, it would be foolish for me to stop there. I will also vote for the liberal/left (even centrist) candidate with the best chance of keeping a yuppie fascist out of the governor's office. Right now, that looks like Peter Camejo. Next week, it could be Arianna Huffington. If the Democrats stop listening to Terry McAuliffe, maybe it will be Dianne Feinstein.

It's my understanding that if you vote NO you cannot cast a vote for the successor, that only YES votes will be counted. I may be wrong, but that's the way I undetstood it to work, further tying our hands.

You must vote either YES or NO in order to vote for the successor. In the article that anchor's TahitiNut's thread, there is some question as to whether this is constitutional. However, I believe very few people will go to the polls in order to vote for a replacement candidate who do not also vote one way or the other on the recall itself.

It is very, very important to get that word out. The misconception that you held until reading this post plays into the rightwinger's hands. Such a misconception increases the possiblity that, if the recall should carry, a Republican will replace Davis.

It sure smells like it!

NO! Your right to vote and be counted on the second question is not based on how you vote the first question!

While the election law, as written, pretends to require SOME vote (either yes or no) to the recall question in order to vote on the second, it's highly questionable whether this is an unconstitutional infringement of voters' rights. IMHO, it is.

No voter should be required to vote at all (let alone one way!) on one ballot measure in order to vote on another.

...but the people don't. Counting on having a governor with an approval rate of 20-something percent isn't exactly the way to go, methinks. And besides, there's nothing wrong wtih kicking out an elceted governor with whom the people have become disenchanted; that's exactly why there are recalls.

.

I changed my comments.

No to Recall, Yes to Impeach Bu$h !!

I think it would be good to see a lot of signs like that in California.

This is a CLEAR and blatant NATIONALLY organized attempt to overturn the results of the last election in 2002. If it works here they will continue after all the other blue states. It is nothing less than a COUP and further, it's the opening salvo of the war for the future: they want to DESTROY us, and a lot of you folks still haven't gotten the message.

Screw alternatives.
WE ARE GOING TO SHOVE THIS RECALL DOWN THEIR GREEDY THROATS.
:grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr:

...and I thought that liberals weren't fanatics and opposed wars, whether hot, cold, or ideological...

Tell me, please, how I can help.

and slapping down the anti davis& " i am against the recall, but" & put the green candiate in...posters that are popping up from trollville all overthe place. There can be no second Dem candidate. we have had no primary ;If someone trys to decide, it opens the door to Division.We must dance with the one that brought us.

Perhaps it's you who is creating division?

I personally feel that yours is just the attitude that Republicans want Dems to have. It helps their chances. That's why they've made a point of framing it that way in the media.

I am staunchly opposed to the recall. I made a point of telling my entire class the other day about the corporate-sponsored smear campaigns against him, etc. etc... in the process getting a few people who had been on the fence pretty angry about the whole thing.

We can simultaneously get the message out there that the recall is WRONG and that we need to unify behind a single candidate.

By not being willing to even discuss the candidates on the 2nd half of the ballot, this becomes a MUCH easier campaign for the Republicans to win.

who stops the others from running and splitting the vote?

Polls consistantly show Feinstein easily winning among replacement candidates.

As you might guess, I'm no big fan of hers, either. But I will vote for her to prevent someone like Issa or Simon from becoming governor by abusing the recall process.

Seems fair enough to me. We elected him. Let him choose his own replacement should this obnoxious recall pass.

recall adventure is costing the California taxpayers?

Thus, it's conceivable that California taxpayers will foot a bill of around $60-100 million.

(The California Constitution provides for reimbursement of the personal and political costs borne by the target of a recall should the recall be rejected by the voters.)

especially considering that the only reason they pushed the Recall was because they lost the last election

The man freaking lost the election in 2002! It's take loads of gall, huge balls, whatever, to dare to support a recall to oust the man who won the governor's race so that the LOSER of that race can have another shot. What nerve!

Simon ought to be embarassed and keep his name off the ballot. He already lost an election, fair and square. To try to become governor now by manipulating the process is despicable.

(in Los Angeles) that supported Simon in 2002 are inviting him back as a guest on their radio shows.
They slam Davis for the problems with the economy and treat Simon like a god damn angel that can solve the state's problems.

Radio talk show hosts just don't get it. The same candidate that they supported in 2002 lost and is going to lose again. Why bother wasting time in re-enacting what happened last year. Move on already.

The longer the "parade of horribles" on the ballot, the more likely the recall will be defeated. Failing that, pray for the least horrible.

This is a Republican Putsch, plain and simple.

Any Democrat who particiaptes in this charade should be singled out as a collaborator.

In Simon’s race against Riordan during the primaries.

if they don't put ONE charismatic, high-profile, smart, tough, leader on the ballot to take all of the Dem votes

while the republicans split theirs between several candidates.

It's so simple- it's obvious.

Get with the program.