Dean can and WILL beat Bush.

I've seen so many posts offering examples of why Dean cannot beat Bush. Since I don't personally know the people who offer these little anecdotes I can't address them. All I can do is go by what my experience tells me, and what my gut tells me.

I have an email pal from way back (3 years, but that's way back in Internet time). We started out arguing, found common ground in non-political areas, and are friends now. This is an excerpt of an email that he sent to me:

I am a registered republican and I will vote for Dean or the General and no one else. Why? Because we are at war and we need fighters to protect and lead us against this destruction of our nation by these blatant traitors.

It's funny that a registered Republican seems to have more resolve and determination than many Democrats. His eyes are on the prize! Some of Clark's supporters make me think that they would be overjoyed to see Dean lose to Bush.

Make the links to Saudis an issue. Make vested oil interest an issue. Tear the whole thing wide open.

Don't laugh at it-explore it.

I am so sick of hearing that Dean can't beat Bush (most recently spoken to me by my hardcore Dem friend.)imho, the question should be "can anyone beat Bush?" and I have to believe the answer is yes because the alternative is to roll over and play dead and I'm not ready to do that yet. Nor am I willing to "wait out" another horrible Bush administration. It does not behoove any of us to buy into this "no one can beat Bush crap".

I don't think we can lose with a Dean/Clark ticket, but I don't know if this will happen. now you may flame me.

Let's see what happens.

I know Clark has stated no to VP? I do wonder if someone who is so used to a power position (military general) would be up to being considered "second in command."

Yeah, Clark said he didn't want to be VP. I can understand this but I hope perhaps he changes his mind should Dean or another Dem win the primary.

Here is my simplistic analogy: I like Dean. I like Clark. Dean has domestic experience. I'm concerned by his lack of foreign policy experience, because when Bush is ousted in 2004, we are going to need someone extremely skilled in international relations. I believe Clark has these skills. But I am concerned that Clark is lacking on the domestic experience side. In this case, it wouldn't necessarily be first and second in command, but more of a partnership.

I am probably dreaming. World peace plan to come later ;)

them. It's would be tragic to leave some of these heros on the bench for this short homely bumbling ex drunk preppie from a state with less people than an urban county. Even Bush has a stronger biography than Dean.

sorry, Dean has an MD, which beats the hell outta Bush's purchased MBA (can he even spell MBA?) so it's clear you have your own anti-Dean reasons. your anti-New England bias is pretty blatant as well. don't blame the state--in case you haven't noticed, our last two presidents were governors.
I'm amazed at the number of psychic people who know who is going to win and who is not. I don't know who will win, I don't even know who I am going to vote for in the primary!

It's (sic) would be tragic to leave some of these heros on the bench for this short homely bumbling ex drunk preppie from a state with less (sic) people than an urban county. Even Bush has a stronger biography than Dean.

You must really be proud of yourself (or extremely desperate), but I think your post violates the rules around here. I'm pretty sure the purpose of DU is not to tout Bush over other dems. Wouldn't you be happier in freeperville?

First of all, Dr. Dean bummed around for one year after college. Need we count the years that Bush bummed around?

Dr. Dean raised his hand when asked if he had smoked marijuana. I don't know if he's gone into any details, nor have I heard that he had an alcohol problem. Bush abused alcohol and, according to some reports, cocaine. Bush himself says he stopped drinking at age 40.

Dr. Dean's family was well off, and he could have chosen to stay in the family business, but, instead, chose to study and become a doctor. His medical college was one that stressed public service.

Dr. Dean set up a practice in VT and had a successful one with his wife. Bush's business dealings were usually set up with the help of friends, and they were all failures.

Both men went to Yale, and both were born in the Northeast. Texans I know (and I know ones who are fifth and sixth generation native born) call Bush a carpetbagger and say there's no way in the nether regions you can call him a Texan.

thanks ;-)

geoorge's DUI. how many others do you bet he would have had if his pa wasn't who he was?

There's no question that in an honest election, Chimpy is going to the pokey.

The problem is that all indications are that the 2004 election is not going to be honest, thanks to our friends at Diebold, and as Gore showed, winning an election doesn't mean a regime change.

But face facts he may be able to squeak out a victory. The odds or 35 to 65 percent he won't. I am a gambler, but I lot the odds to be in my favor.

Does a single Dean critic ON THIS BOARD know what the word "fact" means?

can comprehend it. Dean critics know all about the facts. And the fact is Dean is not our best hope for beating Bush. I am sorry you won't wake up from your Dean sugar induced coma. Lay off the Vermont Maple.

edit--whoops

I needed that laugh, especially after a stressfull day yesturday.

I think you should look it up.

;)

fact is not odds, fact is not speculation, fact is not opinion.

Just helping you out, Captain Lazy.

Muther #!%%&^*$#. Still haven't recovered from your Dean sugar induced coma eh?

And now you're just boring.

You're like that kid in the class who repeats the same joke over and ovre, convinced that it's funny. Except it isn't your joke. You didn't even think it up!

And yes, captain lazy. I've known some intellectually lazy people, but DAMN! I've never met so many people who don't know what the word "fact" means and refuse to LEARN.

I found it outrageous and rediculous when TrueAmerican said that so I had a little fun with it. Dean supporter here :hi:

I don't even know who I'm fighting against anymore.

*Hangs head in shame*

You said it, and I ebelieve it, but I don't call it a fact. Only idiots throw that word around not knowing what it means.

The truth of the matter is, they really don't know their asses from their elbows because they can't even describe what kind of politician Dean is accurately. The critics don't have the facts straight about events here in Vermont. First they say he's too liberal (totally false) then they say he's too conservative (totally false again). Now they're back to claiming he's too liberal. If it weren't so damn pathetic it would be funny just how wrong Dean's critics are.

Who knows better about who Dean is and what the facts about him are than Vermonters? How often does every elected Democrat in a state endorse a candidate they worked beside for 20 years? I don't see all the elected Democrats from Massachussetts endorsing Kerry. I don't see that happening for ANY of the other candidates. Everything I've ever read on here about other Vermont politicians has been fawning praise at how wonderful and great they are. Guess what...they know Dean better than any of Dean's critics. Every elected Democrat from Vermont you have ever heard of endorsed Dean. All of them. If he was really the miserable bastard some here would have us all believe then why, pray tell, is ALL of Vermont's elected Democrats supporting him?

:eyes:

I am psychic.

Are these set somewhere? Las Vegas? Or just your personal gut feeling (with perhaps a tad bit of bias?)

I find it interesting when folks from any campaign proclaim such things - as fact - when of course there is no basis for such numbers. Seems to do nothing but through up more derision - which will harm us in unifying behind - and collectively working our behinds off on behalf of - WHOEVER the nominee is - and in the end this will be required be that candidate Clark, Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, Kucinich, etc.

A Republican said something nice about Dean and Clark???

That's it! They're TRAITORS! They're obviously pandering to the extreme right wing now! I'm switching to Lyndon LaRouche!

</sarcasm>

Thanks, bitchkitty. Nice thread!

I'm mostly concerned with winning the election. Right now I'm leaning towards Clark. He's impressed me when I've seen him, and I think he has the best chance to win.

A nice logical argument supporting Dean is the type of thing I need to read. I like Howard Dean and what he has done. If I had to vote in a primary right now it would be close. I'd vote Clark.

But if Dean wins the nomination I want to believe he can win. So no flames here, make the case. I want Bush out!

We all want Bush out.
All power to the people.

http://home.earthlink.net/~lthieman/howarddean/

She keeps it continuously updated.

More facts and logic:


* Money
* Momentum
* Grassroots organization that can't be beat -- every state (In GA this past weekend, we estimate we reached 2000 people with our canvassing efforts-- what other candidate comes CLOSE?)

* Authenticity -- people see an honesty and integrity in him that they don't see (haven't seen) in any other politician.

* Hope again. We Dean supporters are no longer afraid for our future -- unless Dean isn't nominated.

* Fabulous, pragmatic, DOABLE policies

* Jui jitsu defense style -- e.g., letting a judge decide re sealed records was brilliant -- took it right off the table

* Fighter -- takes the fight directly to Bush and was the first to do so, giving cover to others to do so

Etc., etc., etc.

People are hungry for the truth -- and they get it from Dean.

Thanks.

Just what I was asking for.

I want the nominee whoever it is to beat Bush. We are asked at times the question on whether we think Dean, if nominated can, or, if we feel he is the strongest candidate to do so. All my answers are given as I see them. Dean can, but will need to buck the trend of the last 40+ years of southern Dems being the ones that beat republicans in the presidential races.

http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=10881&security=1%22%60ws_iv_ctrl=1321

It's an amazing speech for a Democrat to deliver in these times. Please read it if you haven't already. Dean addresses what you are saying. If this isn't the message to buck that trend...

Of course, it wouldn't hurt to have a Southerner veep on top of it - Clark/Graham/Edwards/Landrieu

We have nine candidates we can really get excited about. Support Clark by all means - I hope he gets some killer fundraising this Q & the race stays close. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Thanks for posting that - I have been so busy I haven't been to the site in days.

anything wrong. I was pointing out the election trends.

Until I decided that Dean could not beat Chimp--and this took months of watching him, listening to him (I've met him several times over the years), and thinking about it.

Here's the problem: If Dean would have run on his actual record of mainstream pragmatic progressivism he probably could have overcome the problem that KKKarl is going to use to beat him, which is shoving national security down Dean's--and America's--throat.

Can't do that to Clark for obvious reasons. Plus, if you compare Deans's record and Clark's positions--they're about the same level of "liberalness."

Whick is why nearly every whore we complain about on DU is bashing Clark and saying Dean is "inevitable." What is that? C'mon. Be honest with yourself. If you are you don't need me to answer.

I still love Howard Dean, but I'd rather beat Bush. I know this really pisses off the Dean people, but everyone who's opinion I respect (and is not on the Dean payroll) agrees that it's a 10 pt. Chimp win if Dean is the nominee. Hard core Dems are pissed. Too much of the rest of the country isn't.

Republicans and Libertarians in my area. They ask me about Dean, and so far they are impressed with his positions, especially on health care and balancing the budget. Granted, mine is a small sample, but these people seem to think Bush policies have weakened rather than strengthened national security.

The only way I see national security being a win for Bush is if, God forbid, a terrorist act takes place on this soil. Any candidate, be it Dean, Clark, Kerry,Kucinich, or the others, could ask, "Why hasn't the anthrax terrorist been caught?"

I have to believe what my own experience tells me. What else should I go by? People who claim they overheard a conversation in a coffee shop? I'm supposed to say, Whoops, my bad! and vote for Kerry or Clark? Am I supposed to take the word of the media? I don't think so.

Dean's going to win, and like I said, there will be many unhappy people on this board. When he wins the nomination, will they continue the smears and bullshit? Will you be among them?

do that he has to paint himself as a centrist in order to win the heartland. He has to bend on that Tax Issue for the Middle Class, period.

Clark changed from "Let them do the software in India" to - We're going to review totally the current tax code, and repeal tax incentives to corporations that export jobs from this country, and we're going to give tax incentives for corporations that create jobs here in America.

Why can't Dean bend on his Middle Class Tax issue, can someone tell met that?

because other than repeating that over and over, I find your posts to be reasonably well considered.

In answer to your question, here's how I see it:

If you do the budget math, you'll see that in most cases that so called "middle class tax cut" is eaten up by other shifted and externalized costs. What you'll get back (if you're truly middle class) from repealing ALL of the Bush tax cuts will be well in excess of the paltry amount you save on your federal income tax return. You need to look at the big picture and consider just what you're giving up to get the paltry bones that the republicans are tossing you.

I already know it. I have a family I budget for every month. But, it's not me I'm talking about here, it's the general electorate who are going to see that spinned as a tax increase for the middle class. Hell Rove is going to spin it that way anyway, the republicans have always done that, but why give them needed evidence. Hell I'm trying to give the guy a chance at winning the general election, can't anyone but me see that?

He's able to very clearly and concisely make the connection between the tax cuts and the rising costs in other areas for the middle class. That's all it's going to take to get people to see through the phony tax cuts. Dean is the only one I see REALLY pushing this and making that connection for people. The others are too damn focused on the same old same old failed techniques of focusing on the wrong issues. Dean focuses on the right things and it pays off for him in supporters.

or heads will explode.

because he IS a centrist.

I'm a dean supporter, and I agree that he has to back down on the middle class tax cuts. Do exactly what Clinton did and raise only the top rates. Also make corporations pay their fair share. No more Bermuda and Cayman tax havens.

A good example of corporate treason is Chrysler. Back in the 80's when they were about to go under, the gov't guaranteed all of their loans so they could get back on their feet. When they bought Daimler-Mercedes, they became a German company to avoid U.S. taxes.

Really, they did have the juice and they took over.

Germany is a somehwat "interesting" location to avoid taxes ;-)

(OK: the taxes aren't that high - the social security and thus labor is expensive)

... I'm continually surprised at the people who don't see why Dean is doing so well. He's figured out what all the Washington brain trust could not, and now they are playing catchup.

When my father, who voted for Goldwater, Nixon, Reagan and 2 Bushes now says he can't take it anymore and wants to vote for Gephardt. I'll have to work on him a little and get him to switch to Dean.:wtf:

:kick:

then he has broken that 'party barrier' which often (on a gut level) prevents even considering doing so. If he has broken that barrier (intellectually) in favor or Gephardt, chances are - even if Gep isn't the nominee, that he will seriously consider another democrat (and whoever that nominee is) - when he might not have been willing to do so in the past. That is good news.

No freaking way will Dean beat Bush. He is flip flopping on many positions and is only pandering to the left of the left in our party. I can't believe Al Gore backed this idiot. Anyone who thinks Dean is presidential material has their head in the sand, or up their butt. Kerry is a much more likeable guy and doesn't act like the lunatic that Dean does. If Dean is nominated our only chance with be Hillary in 2008.

I approach EVERY prediction on this board with stainless steel skepticism. After all, this is the home of "Bush is toast! Drip Drip! Drip! Just like Watergate! He is going DOWN!" after the latest scandal erupts (think Enron, Plame, etc.).

Plus, I remember all of the summer of 2002, right up until Election eve, "We're going to get back Congress!! I GUARANTEE IT!" Oops.

A year ago, I had an enthusiastic Kerry supporter flame me royal because I expressed serious doubts about his national viability as a candidate. She also guaranteed/promised me he would be our next president. I am not above saying 'I told you so'.

I don't want to dismiss your optimism about Dean, or his chances. But your Republican friend is the exception, not the rule. Too many Republicans are loyal to the party no matter their opinion on Bush. They are generally lockstep kinds of people. We Democrats are not, hence our infighting (I scoff at all the Rodney King wannabes who wring their hands at our lack of unity on here - do they know their U.S. History? No, we can't not all just get along).

Believe what you will, but when you make a DEFINITE sounding prediction, with ABSOLUTE certainty, you leave yourself open to criticism and skepticism.

I hope Bush will be defeated, by whomever, and you are right, pending whether Dean gets the nod. But I will be here to say 'I told you so' if things don't go exactly as predicted. Seen it all too often on here, and I will continue to be a pain in the ass about it.

of the election, especially with electronic voting in play. However, I think it's ridiculous to adamantly state that Bush will beat Dean, which many people on these threads are doing. They're offering anecdotes and reasons, columns and the like - like I said, I have to go by MY experience, MY feelings, and MY instincts. They've been pretty right on in the past. I think Dean's going to win. Could I be wrong? Of course. (but i'm not) ;)

So does that mean we will cancel each other out? :o :-)

I learned through experience during the 1992 race. It was in January, I was in college, and every Democratic candidate had a table of supporters in the Student Union Building. I chatted with each group, picked up their literature, and expressed our mutual wish that we get Bush Sr. OUT.

So I remember back in my dorm room, looking at Clinton's campaign lit, and saying "Seems like an okay guy, but he doesn't have a chance!" Then he went on to make a weak showing in Iowa, and finished THIRD in New Hampshire. No surprise there. Still, he was dubbed "The Comeback Kid" because third was better than expected.

We all know how Clinton made many of us look foolish with our predictions. I learned my lesson. :spank:

So I guess my take is I have NO IDEA what is going to happen. I will work hard for my candidate, hope for the best, and if another candidate gets the nod, I will vote for him/her. We can agree on wanting Bush out, and that is as good as a start as we need.

I will add that I can TAKE an "I told you so!" too. My skin is thick enough, or I wouldn't be a political junkie. :-)

I turn into a 3-year old when I'm wrong. I used to throw the Monopoly board when I lost. I stabbed my sister with a pickup stick once because she had more.

Just kidding! (kind of)

And a Dean/Clark ticket could win too.

Dean said "it's okay to lie to the american people", something about national security. WTF he just let bush off the hook.

I watched it and didn't hear him say that.

Dean could'nt look straight at the camera when he said it. He looked as if he was bought off.

I think you must have taken this out of context, if he in fact said it, because that's the kind of thing that would be all over the place if it were true.

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I'am left/right -9.4846(-0.5709) pragmatism +1.4060 (+0.0846). I hope you know what it is I just posted, if not you may be, so go and get yourself tested (if not).

Has he been anointed while I was not looking?