Hello! I am brand-spankin’ new here… (Posted by proxy for new DUer Wazzoo)

…and though I’ve been lurking for a little while, this will be my very first post. (I wanted to post this in its own thread, but board rules won’t let me—sorry to tag this long-winded post onto someone else’s thread, and this seemed like the closest in subject matter).

Anyway, I’ll say up-front that I’m consider myself an “Independent”, but thought that maybe some of you might be interested in the perspective of someone who wasn’t a member of the “hard-core party faithful” (pardon me in advance if that was a wrong assumption). But I wanted to make some personal observations about the upcoming Presidential election. Please tell me if some of you think this analysis (from your perspectives) is completely off-the-wall (but please be gentle with me because I’m a fragile newbie).

In the 2000 presidential election, Bush won to a large extent because the Nader folks (3 million votes) split off from the Democrats. From all I've read, they're decidedly NOT going to take the chance of doing that again, and will almost certainly vote for whoever the Dems put up this election.

Additionally, I think it highly unlikely that those who voted for Gore last time out will have converted to Bush supporters this year (given Bush's policies and Dems' traditional opposition to his approach), which--taken with the Green vote--suggests that whoever the Dem nominee will be will start out ahead of Bush by 3-4 million votes. (Assuming they will vote again this year, a reasonable assumption, I think).

Now add to that two things...First, from what I’ve read, the Dems (Dean, Sharpton, and the "Hip Hop Artists" in particular) have been pretty successful in registering new voters; And second, Bush's policies have turned off alot of the "traditional” Republicans (so-called Rockefeller Republicans) and “right-leaning Independents." At it's most basic, Rockefeller Republicans believe in fiscal conservatism, smaller government, personal responsibility, meritocracy, lower taxes, states' rights, a foreign policy where the US is not the world's policeman, and a domestic policy where government stays out of the personal affairs/choices of citizens. Most of all, they do NOT cotton to being deceived, and are not at all comfortable with the “neocon” takeover of the party (which is why you might hear a lot of “I’ve been a conservative voter but I’m NOT supporting Bush next year”). For reference, probably the most widely known "Rockefeller Republican" today would be Colin Powell.

Taken together, and added to the Dem base mentioned above, suggests to me that whoever the Dem candidate will be will have ALOT more support going into the election than Bush will. (I believe this explains, in part at least, why the "unnamed Democrat" does so well against Bush in the polls. Regardless of who the Dems put up, a number of people intend to vote against the current President, as I see it).

So the question then is "Do you think enough ADDITIONAL people feel so much better about the world under Bush's Presidency that they'll either switch their vote from what they did last time (unlikely), or that if they didn't vote last time, they like him and approve of him so much that they'll come out and vote for him THIS election?" (also unlikely). We're talking about several million votes here for Bush just to break even with the Dem candidate, let alone to win the election...I just don't see it happening.

So just looking at the raw numbers, I think this is a pretty strong indication that Bush will lose, regardless of who the Dems put up…especially if they pick a relatively strong candidate (who doesn’t shoot himself in the foot of course), and if the core party members present a united front.

As I said, I’m an Independent, with many of those “Rockefeller Republican (fiscal conservatism/social liberalism) tendencies. And, truth be told, I despise what’s been going on the last three years, and think GWB has been absolutely wrecking the country, so my analysis here may very well be biased against the President.

But it really DOES seem that way to me. Comments? (please be gentle).


--BTW, I would definitely fall into the ANYBODY BUT BUSH category, which is why I posted here.

But let's not forget something: for the sake of simplicity let's say those 3-4 million voters all come from California. In that case we're still screwed. We have to hold every state Gore took and aggressively go after a few more. I vote for Ohio and West Virginia.

real believes in some type of govt. you like? Do you have a feeling on how people should live their lifes? Just what are your thinking ,if you say your not of any party.I am always interested in people who do not know which party is for them.I my self sat down and had to work this all out for my self. I had always voted GOP as every one in my family did. When I sat down and really found out just what I wanted for my children and my country I found I was a DEM.

I think you make some very valid points .
My grandparents are Rockefeller Republicans
and didn't like poppy so they voted for perot .

They do not like jr either .

It's quite rollicking here, as you'll see.

Welcome to DU!

I don't think we can assume that all the people who voted for Gore will now vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is. The Sept 11 attacks have changed the political landscape. Bush and Rove have done a good job at keeping the American public scared into thinking that there is a terrorist behind every tree and that only he can protect America. I still think that this will be the major issue during the campaign.

Don't let the spreaders of juvenile mind mud discourage you from posting.