Sanity Check: Will Bush Win in 2004?

Realistically, do you think Bush will win in 2004? I'm really interested in everyone's reasons, yea or nay.

Do you think the capture of Saddam, if it actually occurs, will be a factor in 2004's outcome?

Whether you feel he will win or lose, please explain why. What factors either are or will be in play for that outcome. Please don't simply say it's a gut feeling. All gut feelings are based on something and I'm really, really interested in what that something is.

Personally, I go back and forth. Right now I really don't know. I don't want to get my hopes up lest they be dashed big-time.

Bob D.

Job losses are too great, and, even with Saddam caught, Americans will continue to die in Iraq, and the most we'll find is a soda can's worth of mustard gas. Not to mention the historical trend that the loser of the popular vote loses again.

I'd say no, he doesn't win. Just about any Democrat beats him.

But then, I never imagined the vote would be so close last election either. I've given up trying to predict. All I know is, Dem's better unite, mobilize and vote.

I *think* people are getting the message. I just don't know. :shrug:

...he will be in jail by then, so no, I don't think he will win.

I think he is vulnerable if the economy is weak and if we are still taking casualities in Iraq and there is no exit strategy.

Iraq isnt exactly Vietnam, but I think you could make a similar case for an long-term low intensity war of attrition begining to develope.

If we do somehow put down this low intensity guerilla actions and we have a clear timetable for getting out of Iraq I think Bush could win.

The economy Im not so sure about. We are out of recession, at least according to the economists, but we still have high unemployment.

Maybe, a year from now, the unemployment situation will have moderated a bit, and Bush can spin the economy his way.

I'm leaning toward the democrat. The high unemployment and daily deaths in Iraq are turning off more and more voters. Bush's dishonesty will also alienate a number of additional voters.

is going down in 2004. I bet 100.00 on it. I live in a strong right wing area, and they are starting to see the light. B-)

sad that we have to wonder if they are up to it.

There have been so many choice opportunities, but all Repugs have to do is accuse the Dems of using it to gain political points. The Dems seem unwilling to counter with the notion that pursing the truth in deception on this scale is the responsibility for any government to act on, regardless of partisan allegiance.

in 2004. America will cease to exist as we know it.

That seems like a no-brainer to me.

The democrats are so disorganized and without backbone, it seems impossible for him to lose.

I'm not sure I can really see what woudl make him lose. His spin-doctors are geniuses.

things will get bad. I can just imagine what this group will do if they don't have the pressure of trying to win a second term on them. Social programs will disappear.

the american public have some bizarre affection for the mutant king.
more to the point -- there are way more americans just like bush than i had previously imagined. way to quick to pull the trigger and shoot somebody for reasons like oil and bigotry and vengence for those who don't care to think.
not to mention all those characters out there who actually believe that destroying things like social security will actually benefit them.
not only that -- if it's close they have the voting machines rigged in their favor and we all know where the supremes stand.

I think dubya is going to win by a hefty margin. The economic oligarchy has seen a good return on their investment in him the first time around, so they'll REALLY contribute this time. He'll end up with 3 times the money of his Democratic opponent and win going away.

He is a shoe in. It's a done deal. Whoever is the Dem candidate. stick a fork in him. Game set match.

Explain yourself

if things continue pretty much as they are. Why? He beat up (or maybe caught by that time) Saddam, a nasty Arab guy who was responsible for 9/11. He locked up a bunch of other Arab guys, thus preventing another 9/11. He's a tough guy; if a liberal had been in office during 9/11, said liberal would have given the Arabs every thing they wanted (an actual quote from a conservative I know). He's not a slippery character like Clinton and the liberals. He doesn't lie like Al Gore and the liberals.

Its way too early to predict who’ll win in 2004 because the election will depend on how 4 things are perceived by the voters in the fall of 2004:
1) The economy
2) Iraq/Afghanistan/domestic terrorism
3) Who and how the Democrats select a candidate
4) Presence of a major scandal

Bush is likely to start with 4 advantages:
Solid support from his conservative base (all those judges!) and the Tax cuts
An appeal to independents as a moderate because of the No child left behind and Prescription drug benefit laws.
A post convention bounce in Sept, long after the Democratic July bounce has faded
An early ad campaign running from June to Aug using his $200 million primary war chest to paint the Democrats as negatively as possible

The Democratic nominee will probably start with 3 advantages:
Solid support from his liberal base (all those judges!), the Tax cuts, The Patriot Act
More registered Democrats than Republicans, especially after major Voter registration drives among blacks and Hispanics
The most energized base since Kennedy in 1960

The election will depend on how many of the following are true:
1) The economy is improving, even slowly
2) Iraq is stabilized (i.e. less than 1 soldier killed per week) or Osama is killed/captured
3) The Democrats don't unite behind a candidate that appeals to independents (either because he is perceived as "too liberal" or because the convention is in turmoil between a "moderate" and a "liberal".
4) No serious scandal (i.e. one the average voter perceives as a scandal) occurs

The Democratic nominee wins easily if at least 3 of the above are false.

Bush wins easily if at least 3 of the above are true

If only 2 of the above are true it will be close, and will come down to the 16 closest states from Gore/Bush in which the margin between them was less than 6%.

steal the election in 04, like they hijacked 02 and flat out stole 00.

Next question?

No one raised much of a fuss about the last time -- and since then they've even gotten better at stealing elections and keeping a straight face about it -- so WHAT THE HECK makes you think this time will be any different? IMHO -- it will be even worse!

Tell this to your grandchildren: not only did you did the presidency stolen in 2000, but again in 2004 -- EVEN though the economy was in a nosedive, the US was in an eternal quagmire, our administration kept sending jobs overseas, and people kept losing and/or got more insecure.

The upside in the inevitable theft of the presidency 2004: the f***er will be impeached in 2006, latest, 2007.

If not "Next Year in Washington!", it's "Next Year in Stockholm!" for yours truly....

Let the End Times Roll.

an uphill battle for us. It's been one hell of a ride, eh? The Mepublicans don't seem as fractured as the Dems.
You have to remember that there are a LOT of fence sitters out there (I'm sorry, but that must be a strange, schizophrenic mindset). Most of us here are hardly moderate liberals, so when in DU it's easy to think that you are witnessing a groundswell of support for such progressive ideals as gay marriage, universal health care, legalization of drugs, environmental protection over property rights etc. We aren't even close, yet. The fence sitters most likely will be stirred by their economic health, and may even run from candidates that flirt with the above-mentioned ideals. The recall election of Davis should make this nation sick, and maybe it will. Same for the redistricting issue in TX. Actually, in the latter case, 2/3 of those polled disagreed with this Mepublican power grab.

Stolen election in 2000, no question. Phony excuse for empire building, duh. But with the deafening roar of silence from those who would call themselves statesmen I am left with the sinking feeling that, somehow, by hook or by crook, he'll pull it off again. Wish I was more optimistic. Hope I'm dead wrong.