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My prediction...NOTHING REALLY CHANGES

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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:27 AM
Original message
My prediction...NOTHING REALLY CHANGES
I think people may be overstating the impact of this. This is very good news, but it'll be out of the news within a week or two. The insurgency is not going to end, and while Kerry and Clark may get a short boost from this, I still think that in all likelihood, Dean will still win the nomination. Bush will get a short boost of abt 10 pts in the polls, but in a few weeks his ratings will come back to around 50 % with re-elect #'s of 45-50%, and there will still be a close race.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. Yep, the Michael, Kobe, Scott stories are just too juicy
That tabloidization of American media works both ways, you know.
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kalian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
2. My prediction...I think the next scam is in place....
this "Saddam" will lead the "coalition" right to the "WMDs".
Remember, they've had enough time to plant those things...the
questioning about the WMDs has gone into oblivion...the sheeple have
forgotten about the WMDs...and now, just in time for Xmas, Saddam
AND the WMDs will be found....


Just wait and see...
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WhoCountsTheVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. WMD are in Syria, will invade right before the elections
Count on it. Didn't Clark say they were planning this anyway?
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creativelcro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
17. Planting WMDs is a definite possibility.
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Pastiche423 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #17
33. WMDs can be planted
But their fingerprints will lead right back to the good ole U. S. of A.

I listened well to Scott Ritter.
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caledesi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. Yes, I heard Scott Ritter talk about this too.
How it would be very difficult to plant WMD because there is a "fingerprint" on them and he also mentioned that a third party would have to inspect the WMD.
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WhosNext Donating Member (315 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
3. Yes, nothing has changed. Dean will still lose, now even more horribly.
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. So, you think the insurgency will end?
My my.

I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can make you a great deal on.
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WhosNext Donating Member (315 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #7
14. I have a bridge to sell you
if you think Dean has a chance in HELL. This is the guy that said getting rid of Saddam was "good, I suppose". This guy will get KILLED. Did I mention he's from Vermont, is 5'8 and is a horrible debator?
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. only 5'8"????????
MY GOD what was I thinking sending him money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just don't tell me FDR was in a wheelchair, because I might faint!!!!
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. how this equates to Dean is beyond me....this does not justify an illegal
invasion.

What it does do it gives the US people a feel good for capturing a dictator and a chance for us to hopefully have the troops home soon.
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WhosNext Donating Member (315 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. LOL!
You dont think this is advantageous to Bush?? GIVE ME A BREAK

Saddam's image will be all over the magazines and newspapers and media etc. This was Bush's war and now he has his guy. It will look justafiable.
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youngred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #9
20. not at all
There are no WMDs found
This is still an illegal war and occupation
There is still no Osama...the man who actually attacked the US
This does not legitmize things
This does not repair our image...and it may damage further if the trial is handled poorly

The bump won't last more than a few months before people begin to realize that today is no different than yesterday...except one less dicatator walks the streets
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WhosNext Donating Member (315 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. You think everyone thinks and has the same opinion as you
The vast majortiy of the public isn't as informed as you.
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youngred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. well as the troops keep dying,
the power and water don't come back, we keep feuding with our allies in Europe, the economy keeps tanking and that Osama guy still walks free, people will notice eventually.

The bump isn't big enough to last him through 2004.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
youngred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #3
12. come now
can't we be above the petty bullshit for even a little?

Jeebus not everything connects to the candidate wars
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youngred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
4. I agree
Bush gets a boost, but that falls by next year. It does not prove WMD, it does not solve the problems of the occupation, it does not legitimize the war, it does not allieviate tension with our allies, it does not mean the war is won, it does not do anything.
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ulysses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. exactly.
The sound and fury today is just that. We've been here before.
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
5. You are correct. I'm amazed at how DU in general has been co-opted
by Kerryites and the thinking that the invasion of Iraq to capture Saddam (no, WMD, no, make the world safe, no protect israel, no protect the U.S.) was/is justified or geopolitically a good move.

I don't even think Smirky will be euphoric when he makes his little speech today. His minions have told him this is going to be a disaster and he needs to get the hell out of dodge before November 2004.

Let the bloodbath in Iraq continue.
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Exultant Democracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
6. You are probably right.
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DemNoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
10. Go outside and look up
Havnt you seen the sky is falling? Your supposed to run about in a mindless panic wailing how all is lost. Then after you finish that phase you find a way to blame it all on Dean.
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Kitsune Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
13. As another DUer said in the LBN thread, Ho Chi Minh died Sept. 3 1969.
Give it a couple weeks, once the Saddamgasm wears off and Iraq is still a bloody nightmare, and we're still getting US soldiers killed every day, people will wonder why the hell we still have our people there getting shot at when we've done what we came to do.

If Saddam was not an idiot, and I have no reason to believe that he was one, he specifically designed any guerilla organization he may have created to outlast him, nay, even thrive without any central command structure.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
16. My fearless headline predictions for tomorrow:
US Captures Saddam (Page A1):
Two US Soldiers Killed In Bomb Blast (Page A 16)

For the following week:

Military Releases Details On Saddam Capture (Page A1):
Suicide Bomber Kills Three Americans, Nine Iraqis (Page A 24

For the following month:

Saddam's Life On The Run (Page A1)
Violence Spreads Throughout Shiite Regions (Page A 21)

We're still not going anywhere, and neither are the Iraqi guerillas.
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number6 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #16
27. Haliburton Corruption probe p. 86 (very)small print
..
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SmokeyBlues Donating Member (385 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
18. Maybe now that Saddam has been captured...
not only will he reveal the location of all his nasty weapons of mass destruction, but he'll also reveal the location of all the American jobs that have disappeared since *hole and his gang hi-jacked the country. We can only hope, can't we?
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TexasPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
21. Bush will pick up a good percentage
Impacts:
last poll i remember, 62% of american voters felt going to war was a good thing. That number is going to go up.
50% feel Bush has mishandled Iraq - that number will go down sharply (much moreso than when he did the fake-turkey dance)

remember that graph where it tracked all the presidents popularity over time - and how George was all about big spikes? Well - this is another big spike.
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angee_is_mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
23. things will change
it will get worse!!!!!
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Kenneth ken Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
24. agreed
The invasion of Iraq was still unnecessary, and remains unjustified. The lies used to invoke support for the invasion remain lies. The US is no safer with Hussein captured than we were before the invasion. The invasion increased anger/hatred toward/of The US; and that remains unchanged.

The biggest obstacle to removing the Bush* misadministration is still BBV.

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number6 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
26. I agree
..
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AnnabelLee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
28. I agree n/t
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LittleDannySlowhorse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 02:31 PM
Response to Original message
29. Yep
I don't think this really changes anything, except that when the attacks on coalition troops continue, our fine government won't be able to blame it on "Saddam loyalists". If anything, it will crystalize the fact that the Iraqis simply don't want us there and are attacking us because they view us as an occupying power. This changes nothing.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 04:11 PM
Response to Original message
31. Even after September 11th Bush's re-elect only went up to 56%.
This will be much less than that.
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Kamika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-14-03 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
32. I totally agree
This came at the wrong time .. people are too busy christmas shopping, michael jackson story, celebrating christmas.. and also capturing saddam was hardly anything big, a guy that lived in a mudpit.. the bushjunta are trying to make it out like we caught hitler.


It will be blown over when nothing new happens
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