Let's face it, capture of Saddam doesn't change anything

except it gives Bush a short lived propaganda victory. It doesn't change the fact that the US is bogged down in Iraq and lives are being lost. That $88 billion or more is being spent per year to keep our troops there and rebuild the country. It doesn't change that fact that the US is hated by many there and Saddam's capture will probably lead to more, not less, violence. It doesn't change the fact that the US government lied to us and the world to go to war. It doesn't change the fact that no WMD have been found (the reason the administration gave for the war, not to liberate the Iraqi people from Saddam). It doesn't change the fact that the US "war on terrorism" was sidetracked due to the Bush family vendetta against Saddam and that Bin-Ladden has yet to be found.

I don't see this changing anything regarding the 2004 presidential election either. It doesn't change the fact that the war was unwise and international pressure would have accomplished the downfall of Saddam eventually and that our troops are still sitting ducks in a unstable country. It doesn't change the fact that the good will the US had in the world after 9/11 and in Afghanistan evaporated due to Bush pushing a war which actually took the focus off the real war on terrorism.

Bush will probably get a bounce but I think it will be very short-lived--as short-lived as his "Mission Accomplished" appearance on the USS Lincoln.

If a few months from now things are as messy in Iraq as they were a week ago I do not think the capture of Saddam will be of much use to Bush.

If anyone can screw this up, Bush can.

MzPip
:dem:

I don't see how his capture is bad for Iraq in any way.

he has loyalists and they will still be loyal to him even if he is behind bars. I don't see how it stops the violence.

If he was inciting violence, hopefully it will lessen now.

he wasn't a force I don't think. The militant Islamists
as they call them are religiously and culturally motivated
and they aren't fighting for him. They hate him. He's a
secular Arab and has always been a force against them. I
think this will free up the situation and make it more
likely than less likely to be safe over there.

Musslim countries want the "invaders" out of Iraq?...I doubt if the capture of Saddam will change that...:shrug:

eom.

but do not expect it. From what I have seen the violence there likely has several sources. From a look at Saddam, it seems unlikely he had all that much of a role in any of it.

Assisinations, RPG and IED ambushes could certainly be, at least in part, Bathist remnants. Suicide bombings are not Bathist style. Bathism was a secular movement. Secular movements rarely inspire suicide attacks. The recent up tick in this type of activity suggests a radical islamist component to the action.

The impact of capturing Saddam on the ground is a big unknown. It will become clear in the weeks to come. I fear it will be less positive than I hope for.

he is a ragtag looking man who I doubt had much of a way to communicate with his followers and order them about in any meaningful way. Let's hope for peace, but I'm afraid the only way it will truly come is if the US gets out of Iraq.

to go downhill. there was a bomb and 17 were killed/hurt today in
baghdad. perhaps the bombers don't get cnn.

by the way, parading saddam's medical inspection on television is
a violation of the geneva conventions.

when many people are not paying atention to the news. Also, had this been a positive discovery of WMD, it would have done far more damage to the eventual Dem nominee.

It's bound to affect Iraq and the presidential race sigificantly.

...because many people (the same ones who think Saddam and Osama are pals?) are now convinced that the ex-President has been behind all the anti-U.S. guerrilla warfare in Iraq, and/or that the average citizen hasn't been showering Our Troops with rose petals because they were afraid that Saddam would eventually come back and exact revenge. According to this line of thought, the fact that we have Saddam behind bars means that resistance will rapidly decrease, the populace will rally to the U.S. side, and that we'll soon have a friendly democratic government there and be able to come home.

This will last as long as it takes to become obvious that we're still being attacked, and that Iraq remains as unstable as before the capture. If we're still getting attacked as often by the time of the Iowa caucuses, any positive bump (and I'm sure there will be a substantial one) for Bush's ratings will be long-forgotten.

Bush will remind people that he caught Saddam on a regular basis. I fully expect the events of the trial of Saddam to follow a schedule laid out by Karl Rove. A couple weeks before the general election you can look forward to hearing first hand testimony of the millions of people that Saddam killed and how lucky Iraq is to have him gone. Count on it--they will milk this thing for all its worth.

If the Democrats nominate an anti-war candidate this changes everything. I'm surprised people around here don't see that. If Bush runs against a person who opposed the war he will be able to say very simply (and accurately) "If (X) were President, Saddam would still be sitting in one of his palaces." It makes us look weak on national defense, no doubt about it.

No more will they have to fear his return. That's a pretty big change.

It changes everything.

Dean has little, if any, chance of winning now.

If we don't accept that the 2004 election is about war and terror, then we might as well give up now.

Maybe I'm naive, but in a way, I think this could hurt him. Think about it. There is no longer the possibility of Saddam returning to power in Iraq. Which means there is no justifiable reason for us to occupy the country. We no longer have to "protect" the Iraqi people, Saddam is no longer a potential threat to us, there are no WMDs ... so why will we have to stay? That question's going to be asked many times as our soldiers continue to die.

this war is still a miserable failure and a tragic mistake.

They should have captured Saddam back in March, anyway, but Rummy fucked everything up.