If Toutatis really would hit Earth, would the media or guv'mint tell us?

:shrug:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=4179

10,000 kilometers away? WOW.

Just found my own answer, sept 29th.

four times the distance as the moon from earth. We'd know many YEARS ahead.

~ daughter & grandaughter of astronomers

So if it's 6,000 miles away, and six miles in length (from another thread), then it should take up about 1.7 arc minutes of the night sky, right? Should be visible given it passes by the dark side and the major axis is perpendicular.

One AU = 149,597,871 Kilometers. It is supposed to be .0618 AU.. which is, yep, 9245148 Km, I accidentally divided by 1000. A nasa engineer I am not.

or look at the 4 Lunar Distances they say will be it's closest point.

1 LD=183,000 KM
183,000 KM x 4 =1,536,000

Which is 954,000 miles. Give or take a few.

That's a lot, but it's closest approach is on the 29th, which isn't all that far away. And, as it gets closer, Earth and Moon gravity will have some effect, although that's already been taken into account.

But, they aren't all that good at calculating the effects of gravity and acceleration. Pretty good, but not perfect. And, 4 LD's is pretty damn close when you look at the rocks they're watching. 20, 30, 50... those are comfortable distances, but some people still get nervous.

And, this thing is BIG! Much bigger than most of the wimpy little rocks that have come so close lately.

But, they give it "0" impact risk, so either they are bullshitting us to avoid panic, or it's pretty well going to miss.

Personally, if it's going to whack us, I'd rather not know. Ain't a damn thing I could do about it, or prepare for the effects. Most of the world will die, and whoever's left is going to be in for very interesting times. It could be big enough to set off some interesting volcanoes and earthquakes. 4 to 1 it'll hit in the ocean, and the tidal waves will knock out everything close to water. It'll probably break up, too, and three or four pieces will hit. What if it whacked the Moon?

Read "Lucifer's Hammer" in the short time we have left.

(SHIT! I just paid off a bunch of bills...)

"Read "Lucifer's Hammer" in the short time we have left."

I like that it deals with the aftermath rather than the events leading up to the event. I love Niven and Pournelle stories.

why are they so sure it's a definite 0?

Granted, it probably won't hit unless conditions and gravity are just enough. But given the proximity, it is certainly theoretically possible.

If it whacks the moon, then there's a chance something will whack us as a bounceback.

Cosmic karma? Or random chance?

wouldn't want to give us the news. They'd want to keep up the appearance of order until it was over. We wouldn't want chaos and disorder now would we? Besides, they be too busy trying to find a way off the planet with their riches to inform anyone else.

If we panicked, what would be the big deal? We'd all be dead anyway. Besides, I doubt all the astronomers all across the world would be keeping their mouths shut.

Blue state: No. You're on your own.

Red state: Asteroid's coming! Get out there and vote absentee TODAY!!!

They would hype it for about two weeks.

would be left to care...

After they'd ensured that they'd do all that they can to protect themselves and deplete our resources in their own self-interest leaving us all to our own fate

If the President was Clinton, possibly but this is * and his shill media so the strategy would just be "me, me, me"

Perhaps this is why * is so interested in space development -to ensure that he and his buddies have a place to escape in circumstances such as the one above

Doesn't matter, we were all killed by "Planet X" in 2003 anyway. our continued existance is merely a CIA disinformation campaign.

http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planetx/

is a waste of tax payer money. A ufo could land on the White House lawn and green men could throw a beer bash, and NASA would go on telling us about moon rocks and ice crystals on Mars.