I'm puting the over/under on turnout at 57%

Bok_Tukalo

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Mon Nov-01-04 09:22 PM
Original message

I'm puting the over/under on turnout at 57%

Any takers?

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Mojambo

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Mon Nov-01-04 09:24 PM
Response to Original message

1. I'll take the over n/t

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Bok_Tukalo

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Mon Nov-01-04 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. Over?

i don't know. '92 was 55% and there seemed to be a lot of interest from those not normally engaged.

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PDittie

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Mon Nov-01-04 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. LIkewise

I think it will be 59%

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blackcat77

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Mon Nov-01-04 09:32 PM
Response to Original message

2. I'll take the over as well.

Even here in Indiana which has been Bush since the day he took office, we still have record new registrations, long lines for early voting and an anticipated SIXTY percent turnout at the polls. Way, way higher than any recent election.

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UrbScotty

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Mon Nov-01-04 09:52 PM
Response to Original message

5. Over (nt)

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Bruce McAuley

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Mon Nov-01-04 10:10 PM
Response to Original message

6. Washington and Oregon predicting 84% turnout.

Our little corner of the state also has our county auditor predicting 84% turnout. All the new ones are for Kerry, mostly, I'll bet.
I predict Kerry by 7%, a landslide.

Bruce

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elperromagico

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Mon Nov-01-04 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #6

10. That's of registered voters.

I think the 57% estimate is of voting age population.

The highest recent turnout of registered voters was about 79% in 1992. It was 55% of voting age population.

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OneBlueSky

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Mon Nov-01-04 10:50 PM
Response to Original message

7. way over . . . a record-setter . . . n/t

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Awsi Dooger

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Mon Nov-01-04 11:11 PM
Response to Original message

8. Very good number; best mathematical estimate on DU in a long time

Of, course, I say that because my own figure is 56%:)

The only problem with your number, and mine, from a betting standpoint: people thrill to wager over -- football, basketball, hockey, basket weaving, politics, whatever. If you had set it at 72%, there would still be a flood of over projections. With a number like that, you would get a ton of small over bets, only balanced if you allowed wiseguy gamblers in. They would wager huge on the under.

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elperromagico

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Mon Nov-01-04 11:13 PM
Response to Original message

9. I'm going with the 1992 turnout: 55% and change.

I hope I'm underestimating. :D

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The Minus World

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Tue Nov-02-04 12:12 AM
Response to Original message

11. Over, over, over!!

Oh, it's going to be WAY more than that. I heard a reporter on CNN saying that the projected voter turnout was somewhere in the range of 70% in Ohio. I expect this administration has been so clouded with hubris that they were not preparing for such a backlash to their policies.

Anything short of large-scale undetected voter-fraud or suspension of the proceedings tomorrow will result in a Kerry win, and even the people at FR understand that reality.

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