Here's the latest on Dennis the Menace... (big graphics)

Maddy McCall

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:31 PM
Original message

Here's the latest on Dennis the Menace... (big graphics)

Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 07:33 PM by Maddy McCall

I am on an email list with a meteorologist who is sending frequent updates.

Here's what he said in his most recent email, right before the upgrade to hurricane status:

The latest available RECON fix reported a central pressure of 987mb, with a max wind of 58kts on its first inbound leg. The large, elliptical shaped eye is 'open' to the northwest (which can be seen on the below VIS image).

There will be at least another passes through the eye during the next hour or so, and I would be very surprised if the do not find an official hurricane force wind. The NHC has decided not to upgrade the system quite yet to a hurricane, preferring to wait on a RECON wind speed confirmation. The system is located 15.9N / 72.5W, which is about 315 miles east southeast of Kingston Jamaica, and is moving WNW at 13kts.

The thermal structure of the eye is pretty good for a developing storm that does not yet have a fully closed eye wall. Temps inside the eye are 5degC warmer, than just outside the eye wall. The most intense of hurricanes can have differentials of 12degC or more.

The numerical guidance from this morning has barely changed, especially for the next 48 hours, and there is very good agreement between all the models that Dennis will pass across the western tip of Cuba before turning more northwestward into the Gulf. Intensity forecasts will be especially problematic given the close proximity to the mountainous areas if Hispaniola and Cuba. Crossing over Jamaica itself, which is a very distinct possibility, will not in and of itself weaken the storm, but it certainly will cause its circulation to be disrupted a bit, especially if it crosses the island down its full length -- which will take a few hours at its current speed.

In any event, overall conditions look favorable for continued strengthening, and a CAT 2 storm seems likely by the time it enters the Gulf, and possibly a CAT 3 storm by the time it gets away from the Cuban coast.

ALL the models, including the GFS, have shifted the landfall point a bit further west on the 12Z-18Z model runs, with the GFS & UKMET bringing the storm very near the location Cindy just crossed the coast. The official NHC forecast track remains further east than all the actual models tracks. Their reasoning has more to do with 'continuity' than actual opinion on the model changes. And for such a long period out in time, that is quite reasonable. The 00Z cycle though will be an important one, and if the trend of the models for a more westward bias persists, I have no doubt the official NHC forecast track will be adjusted accordingly.

In short, he's saying that this is going to be one bad hurricane, and that the track that NHC is showing is incorrect, because they will gradually show the shift to the west instead of suddenly shift it. The most recent computer models actually show the hurricane's landfall south or west of New Orleans.

Here is how much Dennis has strengthened since this morning:

Image taken this morning:

Image taken this evening:

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Penndems

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:32 PM
Response to Original message

1. Maddy, those are awesome images

Are those from a Navy aircraft flying into the storm?

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Maddy McCall

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. I think it's a satellite image. It is fearsomely beautiful, isn't it?

Hello, fellow weather geek. :hi:

Here's a link to the blog I'm following. You might like to keep up with this guy's posts, too. He delves into the political reasons that sometimes storms aren't upgraded or downgraded from TS/Hurricane status.

He thinks this is going to be a big one.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

If you join wunderground and send him an email, he'll add you to his email list. :D

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Penndems

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. It really is

Greetings, fellow weather "nut"! :hi:

Not to get too heavy here, but I put it into a spiritual context. You know, something that The Almighty had a hand in, so to speak.

If this monster hits New Orleans, it's terrifying. That city is below sea level, and if it causes flooding . . . well, I shudder to think what might happen. God willing, the leavies will hold up and keep flooding to the absolute minimum.

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Maddy McCall

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #4

6. Yes. No way the sumps can pump out the water that this storm...

will drop on New Orleans.

Saddest of all is the poor and elderly people who can't afford to evacuate.

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Penndems

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Wed Jul-06-05 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. Maddy, we have a friend who lives in Huntsville

who works at the Redstone Arsenal. Guess we'd better give him a call, and make sure he's ready to hit those evacuation routes.

BTW, Steve's website is absolutely facinating. I've bookmarked it! (Didn't see a sign-up link. :shrug:)

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Maddy McCall

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Wed Jul-06-05 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. I'll PM you his email addy.

You can sign up and then he'll add you. Just send him a nice message about how you want to receive his meteorological updates.

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Penndems

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Wed Jul-06-05 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. Thanks!

'Preciate that! :hi:

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Dudley_DUright

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. No, Geos is a weather satellite

Awesome pictures!

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Penndems

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Wed Jul-06-05 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. Thanks for the clarification

Wasn't sure if it was the military or a satellite.

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