Up to how much would you bet for a 1 in 2 chance of getting $10 million?

why bet more than a buck or two, or whatever the minimum bet was?

I'm presuming whoever would offer such a bet would give the offer to the one who bet the most.

one of the blackjack teams -- or more likely several of them -- would put together a bankroll and go for the money

the person afraid to wager a year's wages (call it $40K) on a coin toss 50/50 chance to win $10 million can't do math and will be left in the dust by the professional teams who are not a bit afraid to make wagers for profits

perhaps you heard of the casino in oklahoma recently that offered to pay 2 to 1 on all blackjacks, a team put together a bankroll and won $87,000 in one day before the natives ran them off the reservation

i played a similar event years ago in mississippi and won over $20,000 in 14 hours

the people in this poll would still be scratching their butts and wondering if they should bet a few dollars, while the teams are putting their money together and taking the giveaway

when you are getting "the best of it," you don't scratch your ass, you get the money on the damn table before the fish changes his mind!

According to your criteria, the size of the bet doesn't matter.
Your chance is 1 in 2 for $10 mil, no matter the size of the wager.
:shrug:

A former boss of mine is a pioneer in the field of risk and decision analysis.

He says, pay a buck for the thrill of playing. Anything more than that is bad math.

either he is not a very good mathematician or you did not understand what he was saying -- since you believe him to be a pioneer in his field i will chalk it up to misunderstanding but your post and the statement is downright silly it is so wrong-headed

you do not make decisions on the basis of "the thrill of playing," you make decisions based on your expected value, your risk of ruin based on the size of your bankroll, etc.

i'm guessing almost anyone, and certainly almost any young person who is still able to work, would do very well to risk their entire disposable bankroll on the 1 in 2 chance of winning $10 million dollars

what do you have in the bank? let's say it is $20,000 that you have painfully saved up over the last 5 years, i will tell you right now that you have a huge huge HUGE advantage if someone would actually book your bet and allow you to pay $20,000 for a 1 in 2 chance at $10 million dollars

a 1 in 2 chance is the same chance as a coin toss of a fair coin

half the time you lose the $20,000 and your life is no different

the other half the time you win $10 million! and everything is changed

any smart person would take that bet over and over and over again until the casino security guards 86'd from the property

blackjack bought my house w. a way way way infinitesimally small advantage to compared to that!

if he really gave you advice using the words "the thrill of playing" he was basically just calling you an idiot in polite language -- he was saying you are too stupid to understand even basic math when it comes to getting an edge in gambling and you shouldn't trouble your little head, honey

i wish i was better at putting the math in language, it is like there is a block in the brain so i can't find the words, but your advice is truly terrible



jesus, it used to break my heart, all these people in the casino losing when they could be winning, i just wish i had the words to translate these concepts into english

Since the EV (expected value) of the wager is $5M ($10M x 1/2).

However, it would not make sense to risk your entire net worth, even if your net worth is far below $5M. The difference between your current net worth and zero is pretty much infinity. You gotta leave yourself some outs.

"The thrill of playing?" Bah! Most of the time at the poker table, I am trying to quell my emotions, and the involuntary actions of my adrenal gland. It's just a game.

He IS a pioneer in his field

Where I mispoke was in saying that you only bet $1 for your particular lottery.

He said this about playing MegaMillions or the like....


A good rule of thumb, though, is not to bed more than you can afford to lose. For me $1 is about it.