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I expected Belichick to go for it, as soon as it reached 4th down. In Las Vegas I've dealt with estimated probability for more than 20 years. Often the true odds aren't remotely close to conventional wisdom. This is a classic example. New England was a considerable favorite to make the first down and end the game on 4th and short. They would have been roughly a 1/3 favorite. But if you kick it away I can't make it 50/50 that you stop Manning, no matter where he starts, with 2 minutes and one time out.
You can't apply the standard mindset, that's what I'm saying. All the analysts are looking at this from a tunnel vision view, i.e. what normally would be the correct choice from a mathematical standpoint. But Brady is your trigger man, not the typical QB. He's considerably more likely to make the first down and end the game than the average clown. And the other guy is Manning the dagger, plus New England's defense is young and on the road.
There was one similar situation I can think of. It was more debatable. Switzer went for 4th and 1 against the Eagles very late from his own 29 in the '90s and failed, while leading. He took relentless criticism. I'm sure the networks will eventually find that clip to use as an example of something comparable to tonight. Switzer's rationale was a huge wind was facing the Cowboys so a punt likely would go nowhere. Plus he had Emmitt Smith and the best offensive line in the league.
In that case I thought it was the wrong choice, but only slightly. Tonight I'd love to bet if they played out the scenario 100 times, New England would win a higher percentage by going for it and not punting.
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