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Are the polls wrong about Kucinich?

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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 10:55 AM
Original message
Are the polls wrong about Kucinich?
Sorry if this is dupe but currently don't see it here in P & C. And yeah, Alexa is worthless, I know, I know, I know, I've read it here repeatedly. Still this piece makes some interesting points.

http://www.utne.com/web_special/web_specials_2003-12/articles/11008-1.html

Are the polls wrong about Kucinich?
Kucinich moves to second place in innovative candidate website activity ranking
—By Rob Kall, OpEdNews.com

December 2003 Issue

The same internet statistics that predicted within less than one percentage point the percentage Howard Dean won the the Moveon.org internet primary by shows Dennis Kucinich ahead of all the candidates except Howard Dean, who holds a strong lead on Kucinich as well. And in the California Democratic Council (CDC) Vote, Howard Dean took a commanding first place with 56.11 percent of the vote with Dennis Kucinich placing second with 17.19 percent and Wesley Clark with 14.48 percent.

* * * *

David Swanson, Kucinich Campaign press secretary told OpEdnews.com, "There are a number of examples of candidates who were, during these early months, dismissed as fringe, no hope candidates who were low in the early polls, who were either nominated in the primaries or who had a big impact at the convention and in the early primaries. This was completely unexpected by the mainstream media. Those examples include Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

When asked what he thought of the mainstream media's suggestions that Al Gore was playing "king maker" with his endorsement of Howard Dean, that it might have clinched the nomination for him, Swanson replied, "The polls that may be most significant, though getting the least attention, are the ones showing that the majority of the voters know nothing about any of the candidates, so it's an open field. There have been a number of polls that put "un-decided" in first or second second place. There are two big problems with the pundits saying that it's wrapped up this early in the race. First, there's no historical background for this. Where people are in the polls does not predict how things will turn out."
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 10:58 AM
Response to Original message
1. We've been chatting about it!
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. thanks
I knew it was somewheres but I didn't recognize the subject line. My bad.
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kclown Donating Member (459 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
3. Polling organizations have been concerned for some time
about the impact of communications technology on the validity
of their results.  The combination of telemarketing, voice
mail, caller i.d., and cellular phones has driven response
rates down.  A declining response rate introduces the
possibility of non-response sample bias: i.e., the people who
do respond are different from, and not representative of,
those who do not.

This would indicate a big change in the future for the media. 
Over the past 30 years, political campaign reporting has been
more and more the simple art of reading poll results.  If
these are accurate, then the reporting is good.  If not, the
media will have to figure out a whole new (or old) way of
covering campaigns.

I can never remember his last name, but the actor Jerry
Somebody, who played Martin Mull's sidekick on Fernwood
Tonight, once announced his candidacy for president.  When
told that the polls showed no support for him, he replied,
"Who cares what the Poles think? I'm not running for
president of Poland."
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Fred Willard played sidekick Jerry Hubbard
Most recently known for his teriffic turns in Christopher Guest's mockumentaries.
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dpbrown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
5. A kick for public financing!
https://www.kucinich.us/contribute.php

The BFEE is the problem - Kucinich is the answer.

Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
6. That's true. Most voters don't know much about ANY candidate
and they are only going by who they know through the media attention. That's why Lieberman polled so high for so long and now Dean. Those were the only candidates getting the media oxygen.
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