Could Kerry beat out Gep for 2nd in Iowa? - Des Moines Register thinks so

I've been saying for a while that Iowa was Kerry's only strong suit left in this race and provided him with the best chance for an upset victory. But, my god, how far he'd have to climb in NH to even touch Dean. Way back lasty August when he started to get pinched in NH he should have immediately shifted gear, a la a Gore in '99. His new manager seems extremely capable but Kerry has already made his impression on many party faithful and I just don't see him turning that around. However, on the plus side, the media is eager for something interesting to happen in this primary. Right now, it just looks like a Dean blowout through Feb. 3 and beyond. Not to mention the fact that no political writer form Iowa wants anyone to forget that his state plays 'the' critical role and they may very well be right.

Strong Kerry push may earn him anti-Dean title


December 18, 2003

Des Moines Register
by David Yepsen

Des Moines, IA -

Horse-Race Journalism - In recent days, most of the political talk has been about former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean: his rise in the polls, the energy of his insurgency, Al Gore's endorsement, and what, if anything, the capture of Saddam Hussein means for his anti-war candidacy.

There's another political story developing in Iowa: the improving position of John Kerry. The Massachusetts senator has been quietly doing things here that are improving his caucus prospects. Evidence of his success comes in a Pew Research poll released 10 days ago. That survey of likely caucus-goers showed Dean with 29 percent, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 21 percent, Kerry at 18 percent and John Edwards at 5 percent.

In other words, Kerry is within 3 points of Gephardt for second.


http://johnkerry.com/pressroom/clips/news_2003_1218a.html

Well, actually it could. Coming in second in both Iowa and NH might not be "winning" but it would sure put Kerry in the position of looking like the most viable "anti-Dean" candidate.

This would seriously threaten the possiblity of having a candidate before the convention, but what the hell. If he beats Gephardt it might well be because people are hanging that ad around Dick's neck. If so, that would be irony that Shakespere could appreciate.

and that candidate will be Dean by a mile. Dean, unlike just about everyone else, has strength in a bunch of states that vote after Iowa and NH. This idea that he is weak outside of the first two states is silly. He's so strong in those two states that he has already started campaigning in the Feb.3 states while the others waste away in Iowa and NH where they have no chance. However, a dramatic Kerry finish in Iowa would be great as he's had a hell of a campaign (ina bad sense). Think about it: the guy has had almost no good news since the summer. He's effective in person (I've seen him many times). And is probably one of the smartest and most thoughtful of our candidates. No one could deny that he would lead this country. He simply just hasn't lit that fire under Dems like Dean has and we are a party that wants to 'fall in love' with our nominee. Even if he is a surely bastard from some peepod state. That's just the way we Dems are and Dean is so high right now and so effective at what he does that he may just be able to pull it off.

Dean beating Bush next Novemeber would be nothing short of a political tsunami. I just hope to god it happens.

They couldn't keep focusing on squabbles and the "failing" campaign. Once the media is forced to turn, it's all over for Dean.

Is the 1st loser.

prolong the agony?

But well within the margin of error.

He is banking a lot on the press, which according to Kerry supporters - hates him, to keep his campaign alive.

Every poll from every other state outside of New Hampshire that I've seen shows him in 3rd place or below.

It would also raise expectations in NH. Not meeting expectations is not a good thin in campaigns.

that Kerry's supposed to finish 3rd (or worse) in Iowa, so finishing 2nd will be all the political reporters will talk about for the full week before NH. That's good press and will help him later on.

That would give him a boost for NH and making him the anti-Dean. It would be insteresting what would happen in the other primaries if this becomes an unofficial two men race.

Kerry would definitely be the anti-Dean if this scenario unfolds.

I think that Kerry is certainly a better campaigner that Gephardt ( who must be ruing the day he entered into a stop Dean pact with the good senator ). He stands a very good chance of winning the battle for second in Iowa.

However, Kerry may find himself caught up in a hard fight with Clark for second place in New Hampshire.