Poll: Kerry has N.H. edge: Dems see senator as `electable'

Vaulted into the top tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls by his tough, anti-war rhetoric, Howard Dean still can't convince New Hampshire voters he can beat President Bush, a new Boston Sunday Herald poll shows.


Democratic primary voters in the Herald poll put Dean, the former Vermont governor, and U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in a deadlocked race for the first-in-the-nation primary - set for six months from today.

Voters say Kerry, boosted by strong foreign-policy credentials, is far better equipped to reclaim the White House, the poll shows.

``Although the Dean message is a popular one, Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

Forty-four percent of voters say Kerry is more electable than Dean - only 17 percent say Dean has a better shot against Bush, the poll found

http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/poll07272003.htm

In the Herald poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters, Dean takes 28 percent of the vote and Kerry 25 percent while a second tier of candidates lagged behind, U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut at 11 percent and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) at 9 percent.

The most important thing is the ability to win. According to this poll, they are in a dead heat, with a MoE of 6 percent.

Now checking American Research with an MoE of 4 percent, Another picture comes out:

DLC candidates

Joe Biden 1%
John Edwards 2%
Dick Gephardt 10%
Bob Graham 2%
John Kerry 25%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 6%

46 percent

Non-DLC candidates

Wesley Clark 2%
Howard Dean 19
Carol Moseley Braun 1%
Al Sharpton 1%

23 percent


Undecided 30%

Dean would have to get every undecided vote, all of the votes from the other non DLC candidates in order to trump the DLC, who have decided that are going to take charge of the nomination selelction and they have recently indicated that Kerry is likely to be their choice.

Again, unlikely that Dean will get every undecided vote, get clarks votes, get Mosely Brauns votes and Sharptons.



then:

Kerry leads Dean 28% to 17% among registered Democrats likely to vote in the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary (76% of this sample). Dean leads Kerry 25% to 17% among undeclared voters ("independents") likely to vote in the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary (24% of this sample).

While Kerry continues to lead in favorability with a 66% favorable rating, Dean is approaching near-universal awareness and now has a 57% favorable rating, the second highest among the potential candidates. Since January, Dean's awareness has increased from 64% to 97% and his favorable rating has increased from 30% to 57%.

and then:


Of the 30% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in their preference for president, 42% have a favorable opinion of Dean, and 45% have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

Of the 25% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they would vote for Kerry, 83% have a favorable opinion of Dean. Of the 19% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they would vote for Dean, 67% have a favorable opinion of Kerry.


This poll, like the Boston Globe poll, when consirdering the ENTIRE POLL, all of its elements, have Kerry most likely winning the nomination over Dean.

The Franklin Piece Poll again has Dean one point ahead with an MoE of 4.4 percent, but gives Kerry the better chance of actally winning New Hampshire when all of the elements are taken into account.

But when you account for ALL of the elements in the poll, Kerry is considered to be the candidate who will win in N.H.

How was the sample for this poll (and others) drawn? Are they going only off of Democrats and Independents known to vote in previous years?

There's a big X-Factor in all of this.. Dean is bringing a lot a new people into the process. If you were to go to any of his MeetUps and ask who's new to politics, about 1/3 to 1/2 present will raise their hands. I wonder if these polls are reflective of this reality.

on edit: I question all polls on this issue, whereever Dean may fall in them.

that (a) there are always new folks coming into the process; (b) new people are about as representative as the folks we have, therefore, the percentages won't change all that much; and (3) brand new people who are excited now - will they have the staying power to go out on a snowy winter day to participate come Jan/Feb/Mar?

Kucinich hasn't been able to fundraise.
Kerry has to go to DLC big corporations for his funds.
Dean out raised both of them in Q2 and is the only candidate *gaining* support.


Dean Raises $7.5 Million in Second Quarter
In the second quarter ending yesterday, 59,000 Americans donated an average of $112 to help boost Governor Howard Dean to the top of the second quarter fundraisers with a total of $7.5 million raised.

Unlike the small, exclusive multi-million dollar fundraisers held in major cities by President Bush over the last week, the Dean campaign saw its numbers surge based on small donations over the Internet—with nearly $3 million raised online in the last week alone. In the second quarter, 45,030 people donated online a total of 51,474 times. The average donation online was $74.14.

“When we said last week during the governor’s announcement that ‘You have the power,’ we had no idea just how much power our supporters had,” said Campaign Manager Joe Trippi. “They are people participating directly in their democracy, and doing whatever they can to help us take our country back—giving $20, $30, or $50. This is People-Powered Howard.”

Second quarter fundraising by the numbers:

Total raised in second quarter: $7,500,000 Total donors (2003 to date): 70,000
Average contribution: $112

First time donors in second quarter: 48,000

Levels of Internet Giving:
Less than $50: 18,422
$50 -- 99: 11,579
$100 -- $249: 11,436
$250 -- $499: 2,379
$500 -- $1,000: 368
$1,000 and up: 129
http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/000584.html

you said "Kucinich hasn't been able to fundraise." almost 30% of donations in Democratic presidential primary races are given by Jewish supporters. Kucinich cast anti-Israeli votes in the House, and he is now paying for it. Even if he SOMEHOW managed to get the nomination, most jews would support Bush or not vote at all. Jews are well known to be liberal on social issues but they are very conservative on the war on terror and their support of israel. It is political suicide for the Democratic party to even CONSIDER nominating an anti-Israel candidiate like Kucinich. And don't tell me that he was trying to be balanced in his support for Israel and Palestine. It doesn't work that way, and it doesn't seem that way to jewish democratic voters.

in the name of Israel, including crimes." NOT anti-Israel. Many Jews like his return to the idea of the U. S. having an even-handed policy in the ME.Did you hear his speech from the synagogue?You have been sadly misinformed.

Kerry lines up against Bush better. He will physically dominate him, will not wimp out at the debates like Gore, and will run Bush's chickenhawk ass up a flag pole.

I think they are wrong but you know how they love to name call and use labels as short cuts for thinking.

``. . . Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

I think this is key. Electability means the person who will get more votes than Bush.

The public is still scared and they want someone strong on foreign policy.

You said, "The public is still scared and they want someone strong on foreign policy."

This is going to be key. It doesn't have to dominate the discussions prior to the 2004 election - and we'd better hope that it doesn't, because if it does, it means that the R's are hitting hard on our candidates lack of credibility on keeping the US safe - but it will be the "price of admission" - any candidate has to be able to assure the American People - those you all criticize here for not paying attention, for being sheeple, etc - that they can keep the US safe.

These candidates have the ability to do that, without looking like they are hawks for hawks sake: Kerry, Clark and Graham.

From Dena suporters there who arestateing that they support Dean now, but in thee end will likely switch to Kerry if the polls show him more electable. Those are among older Dean supporters, who stated that winning is more important that the candidate.

that corporations cannot contribute to any candidates coffers?

You said, "Kerry has to go to DLC big corporations for his funds."

How so? Or are you repeating something you'd heard?

shake a can of pennies at it.....!

Or donate another $10 for the Dean isnt electable thread!!!! Woohoo...making the pie higher for Howard dean...you go Nick!!!

and I mean that in a most sincere and heartfelt way.

Kerry...:puke:

but Dean leads 28-25 percent. Again, the media and DLC nonsence about Dean not being electable is probably one reason.

Boston Herald = NY Post.

Franklin Pierce College (see Barbara PIERCE Bush) college of communications is named for Marlin Fitzwater. Doesn't ANY of that ring a bell to anyone?

With AN Moe of around five percent Dean doesnt lead at all. It meas that within the margin of error, Dean and Kerry are equal, but when it comes to electeability, Kerry ouclasses Dean by MANY multiples of the MoE, which is why the poll that has Dean three points ahead, decided that Kerry is actually the winner. They use ALL aspects of the poll, and do not just pick and choose the segments they in which rta cahdidate somes three point ahead within the MoE.

THe latest American Reseach poll has Kerry ahead of Dean by six points with a margin of error of 4 percent. In all polls, the ONLY data that can be said to have any exact validity is are the numbers that fall beyond the error. In most polls there are areas in which Kerry beats Dean outside of the marging of error, but there are NO similar portions of polls for Dean. Which means there is statistically valid data that has Kerry ahead of Dean, but no statitstically valid data that has Dean ahead of Kerry.

But the Globe itself who ran thew poll, and the pollster who ran it state that this poll places KERRY as the frontrunner:

These are the numbers:

Dean 28%
Kerry 25%
Lieberman 11%
Gephardt 9%
Edwards 1%
Graham 1%
Kucinich <1%
Moseley-Braun <1%
Sharpton <1%

But this is how the pollster who did the poll interprest it:


Poll: Kerry has N.H. edge: Dems see senator as `electable'

by David R. Guarino
Sunday, July 27, 2003

Vaulted into the top tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls by his tough, anti-war rhetoric, Howard Dean still can't convince New Hampshire voters he can beat President Bush, a new Boston Sunday Herald poll shows.


Democratic primary voters in the Herald poll put Dean, the former Vermont governor, and U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in a deadlocked race for the first-in-the-nation primary - set for six months from today.

Voters say Kerry, boosted by strong foreign-policy credentials, is far better equipped to reclaim the White House, the poll shows.

``Although the Dean message is a popular one, Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

Forty-four percent of voters say Kerry is more electable than Dean - only 17 percent say Dean has a better shot against Bush, the poll found.

Dean, while surging nationally, has had to battle a nagging sense among Democrats that he is too liberal, poorly funded or lacks the stature to take on Bush in the general election.

While Dean could take some solace that New Hampshire voted for Republican John McCain over Bush despite similar electability concerns, Myers said Kerry should exploit the clear opening against his toughest opponent.

But the Globe itself who ran thew poll, and the pollster who ran it state that this poll places KERRY as the frontrunner:

These are the numbers:

Dean 28%
Kerry 25%
Lieberman 11%
Gephardt 9%
Edwards 1%
Graham 1%
Kucinich <1%
Moseley-Braun <1%
Sharpton <1%

But this is how the pollster who did the poll interprest it:


Poll: Kerry has N.H. edge: Dems see senator as `electable'



by David R. Guarino
Sunday, July 27, 2003

Vaulted into the top tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls by his tough, anti-war rhetoric, Howard Dean still can't convince New Hampshire voters he can beat President Bush, a new Boston Sunday Herald poll shows.


Democratic primary voters in the Herald poll put Dean, the former Vermont governor, and U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in a deadlocked race for the first-in-the-nation primary - set for six months from today.

Voters say Kerry, boosted by strong foreign-policy credentials, is far better equipped to reclaim the White House, the poll shows.

``Although the Dean message is a popular one, Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

Forty-four percent of voters say Kerry is more electable than Dean - only 17 percent say Dean has a better shot against Bush, the poll found.

Dean, while surging nationally, has had to battle a nagging sense among Democrats that he is too liberal, poorly funded or lacks the stature to take on Bush in the general election.

While Dean could take some solace that New Hampshire voted for Republican John McCain over Bush despite similar electability concerns, Myers said Kerry should exploit the clear opening against his toughest opponent.

http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/poll07272003.htm

It doenst Read, "Dean in the Lead...."

These are the numbers:

Dean 28%
Kerry 25%
Lieberman 11%
Gephardt 9%
Edwards 1%
Graham 1%
Kucinich <1%
Moseley-Braun <1%
Sharpton <1%

But the Globe itself who ran thew poll, and the pollster who ran it state that this poll places KERRY as the frontrunner:

its a free country, they can "state" whatever they want to "state", I don't care if you are a pollster, 25% just isn't a greater number than 28% no matter how you spin it.


But this is how the pollster who did the poll interprest it:


Poll: Kerry has N.H. edge: Dems see senator as `electable'.


The pollster can "interpret" the poll however they want to "interpret" it, 25% just isn't a greater number than 28%. If the pollster wishes to interpret second place as having the edge, that is their perogative but it doesn't say much for their analytical abilities.

BOTH Dean & Kerry. NEITHER is progressive.

That's a big plus for him, as the race heats up after Labor Day. People are starting to get excited, and * is looking beatable. Voters will seriously assess who can do go all the way. Very good news for Kerry.

And you notice, there are very fiew attacks on Dean from the right wing. NONE from the administrations own people. THey attack what tey are afraid of. They are apparantly not afraid of Dean.

obviously they are petrified of Kerry: witness the unrelenting attacks on Kerry by Rove&Co. </sarcasm>

If it is true that the right-wing administration attacks what they are afraid of, they don't seem to be shakin' in their boots over Kerry. I have yet to see the attacks on Kerry from the right-wing administration, therefore I must conclude that they are not afraid of Kerry either.

I don't put much stock in what the right-wing deems as frightening, fear is what they derive their power from. Ultimately, that is a losing strategy, people just get tired of being anxious.

I thought this was a goverment for the people by the people, not rich kids hanging out telling people how they should vote.

Washington is Dean Country