For many, the likely Pennsylvania win is single digit. Certainly, as in every other recent primary, the anticipation is that Clinton will not do well because of Obama's money and draw with younger voters.
But the signs are present that the win could be much larger than anticipated. The precise impact of the Wright controversy is not accurately reflected in the polling by many of the big pollsters, and the likely results of the Pennsylvania primary are muddled by the continuing play by big media over stories about Hillary Clinton that Obama is able to avoid the minute he responds.
The reason for this is that the electorate in Pennsylvania is well-aware of East Coast politics, the East Coast MSM, and their play for Obama votes and foreshortening Hillary Clinton's run. From NBC to CNN, the bias favoring Obama is palpable. And Pennsylvanians do not like this at all.
So what will happen to this state where the last black candidate, a very popular Republican, was so overtly rejected. A sudden surge of white angst raised at every stop along the campaign trail? A sudden forgetfulness of Pennsylvania's center-leaning Democratic voters?
Santorum's past elections provide signs of the volatility of Pennsylvania.
In 1990, at age 32, Santorum was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from Pennsylvania's 18th District, located in the eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. He scored a significant upset, defeating a seven-term Democratic incumbent, Doug Walgren. Although the 18th was heavily Democratic, Santorum attacked Walgren for living outside the district for most of the year. He was reelected in 1992, in part because the district lost its share of Pittsburgh as a result of redistricting. In Congress, as a member of the Gang of Seven, Santorum worked to expose congressional corruption by outing the guilty parties in the House banking scandal.
In 1994, at the age of 36, Santorum was elected to the U.S. Senate, defeating the incumbent Democrat, Harris Wofford, who was 32 years his senior. Santorum was re-elected in 2000, in large part because his opponent, Congressman Ron Klink, was all but unknown in the eastern part of the state (he represented a suburban Pittsburgh district). Despite this, Santorum barely won, taking only 51% of the vote.
Is Santorum's rejection a sign of the way he moved steadily right, or a sign that Pennsylvania is an independent minded electorate that will vote for the least controversial candidate? And for that matter, who is the least controversial between Obama and Clinton?
This will be the first state to vote after Wright came to the fore. This will be the first state that will vote after the "under fire" misstatements by Hillary Clinton. And this will be the third state to vote that knows for certain that if it votes for Obama he will almost certainly become the Democratic nominee for President.
Forget for a moment who has the ability to get out the Democratic vote. Forget Obama's inability to win in big primary states that the Democrats must win in November.
Stick with only one question. If you were voting in Pennsylvania, and knew you could end Hillary Clinton's run, would you vote for her? And if you did vote for her, and she won by any margin, is that not more telling than anything else. With the MSM and Obama's millions making no difference, where does that leave you? For that matter, what has changed since Texas and Ohio made their voters' views public?
If Pennsylvania answers these questions by again voting for Clintons, the voters will again show that Obama cannot win the general election. The Pennsylvania voters will also support the view that the national electorate, no matter what the MSM and Obama surrogates say, is not ready for anyone as liberal and dogmatic as Obama.