Clinton faces uphill battle in North Carolina: "a plethora of natural advantages for Obama"

CNN: Clinton faces uphill battle in North Carolina
By Peter Hamby

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Hillary Clinton emerged from Tuesday's contest in Pennsylvania with a big symbolic victory and a net gain of about a dozen pledged delegates. But those spoils could vanish on May 6 in North Carolina, a delegate-rich contest with a plethora of natural advantages for Barack Obama. Obama owes his victories throughout the Democratic nomination battle to African-Americans, young voters, upscale whites and independent voters. In North Carolina, those voters come in bunches, and their ranks are growing. Since the beginning of January, nearly 65,000 new voters between the ages of 18 and 24 have registered in the state as Democrats or unaffiliated voters. More than 67,000 new African-American voters have registered over the same period.

The metrics don't bode well for a Clinton victory. "It would take a monumental event in next two weeks for that to happen," said Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party. "But can she shave an Obama victory to five or six points? Possibly."

African-Americans are expected to make up around 40 percent of the primary electorate, giving Obama a healthy starting point in his chase for a large share of the state's 115 pledged delegates. Obama should capture votes in the Research Triangle, a thriving swath of counties in and around the Raleigh-Durham area filled with highly-educated tech workers and medical researchers. North Carolina also happens to be sandwiched between two demographically similar states -- Virginia and South Carolina -- that already held nominating contests, exposing thousands of Tar Heels to campaign advertising and news coverage of two Obama blowout victories in January and February.

There's more: Unaffiliated voters can participate in North Carolina's semi-open primary, and although Obama split independent voters with Clinton in Ohio and Texas, political observers say independents in North Carolina appear likely to tilt back toward Obama, as they have done in other southern states.

Topping off Obama's formidable North Carolina coalition are college students. From the mountains of Boone to beaches of Wilmington, the state is peppered with dozens of public universities, major organizing hubs for the Obama campaign. Both campaigns are already taking advantage of North Carolina's "One Stop, Early Vote" program -- which permits new voters to register and cast ballots, all at once -- to sign up supporters on the spot and have them vote. The Obama campaign in particular sees the program as a ripe opportunity to run up votes among North Carolina's many college students....

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Clinton's advisers acknowledge the tall odds, and appear to be focusing most of their May 6 efforts toward Indiana, a state with lunch-bucket demographics that have proven friendlier to the New York senator, most recently in Ohio and Pennsylvania....

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/24/north.carolina.primary/index.html

Gobama!

like he did in Wisconsin


"Topping off Obama's formidable North Carolina coalition are college students. From the mountains of Boone to beaches of Wilmington, the state is peppered with dozens of public universities, major organizing hubs for the Obama campaign. Both campaigns are already taking advantage of North Carolina's "One Stop, Early Vote" program -- which permits new voters to register and cast ballots, all at once -- to sign up supporters on the spot and have them vote. The Obama campaign in particular sees the program as a ripe opportunity to run up votes among North Carolina's many college students...."