Ranking the McCain vs. Obama Battlegrounds: States most likely to switch parties in '08

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Ranking the McCain vs. Obama Battlegrounds

....(T)he current conventional wisdom that the race will come down to a handful of states in the Rust Belt and the West is correct....What our Line doesn't yet reflect is the belief among some Democrats that Obama can make states like North Carolina, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana legitimately competitive in the fall. It's possible that Obama could fundamentally alter the electoral map, but there isn't enough evidence to merit any of these states being included in the Line....

10. Pennsylvania (Sen. John Kerry won with 51 percent in 2004): Too many people look at Obama's primary loss to Clinton here back in April and assume he will have major problems carrying the state against McCain in the fall. That overlooks the fact that the Democratic nominee has won the state in the last four elections -- albeit narrowly. Pennsylvania is still a state that leans Democratic, but the very Reagan Democrats that pushed the Gipper to wins in 1980 and 1984 in the state are up for grabs, and McCain will make a hard push for their support. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Florida (Bush 52 percent): It's hard for even the most ardent Obama backers to dispute the idea that Clinton would have made the tougher match for McCain in the Sunshine State. Two of Clinton's major pillars of support -- voters 55 and older, and the Jewish community -- play a huge role in Florida politics, and Obama will need to woo both to have a chance at pulling off an upset. Make no mistake: An Obama win in Florida would be rightly seen as an upset, as Republicans have consolidated their hold in the state over the last few elections. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Virginia (Bush 54 percent)....

7. Ohio (Bush 51 percent): Democrats whitewashed Republicans in 2006 -- retaking the governor's mansion and unseating Sen. Mike DeWine (R). The losses proved devastating for a Republican Party already hobbled by the problems of outgoing Gov. Bob Taft. McCain's candidacy is a godsend for the Ohio GOP, as his reform credentials should allow him to stand distinct from the scandals that have engulfed the party's most high profile officials in recent years. But Democratic gains of late should embolden Obama backers too. This one is going to be close -- again. (Previous ranking: 5)

6. New Hampshire (Kerry, 50 percent)....

5. Michigan (Kerry 51 percent): Polling shows the race between McCain and Obama in the Wolverine State as competitive, yet there is no swing state where Republicans feel more confident about their chances. While GOP strategists grant that Obama will run extremely strong in Detroit and the surrounding areas, Republicans believe that in the Upper Peninsula (U-P in Michigander-speak) and in southwestern Michigan -- both more culturally conservative areas -- McCain will dominate. (Previous ranking: 8)

4. Nevada (Bush 50 percent)....

3. Colorado (Bush 52 percent)....

2. New Mexico (Bush 50 percent)....

1. Iowa (Bush 50 percent)....(T)here's little debate about Iowa as the state most likely to switch sides in the coming general election. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/05/the_friday_line_mccain_vs_obam.html#more