FL-16: Harrell (R) to seek Foley (R)'s U.S. Congress seat

Associated Press

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. - State Rep. Gayle Harrell is entering the race for Congress.

Harrell, R-Stuart, said Wednesday that she will run for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Mark Foley of West Palm Beach. Foley is running for the U.S. Senate in the GOP primary.

Harrell, who will turn 60 this month, said she is "excited about this opportunity," adding that she plans to file campaign papers by Friday.

The open congressional seat likely will attract several candidates. Former state Rep. Tom Warner of Stuart and Wellington attorney Rob Siedlecki have been mentioned as possible candidates in GOP circles. Warner ran unsuccessfully for state attorney general last year.

more...http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/6271730.htm

This seat is winnable...* beat Gore here by only 51.9%-46.4% (http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/district.phtml?district=fl108)...but we need a candidate.

But does he have a realistic chance of winning?

If he runs a good campaign, the eventual GOP nominee is seen negatively, and national events play against the GOP nationwide (such as what happened to Dems last year and in 1994), I think he has a realistic shot at winning.

Of course that's a big if.

There are a bunch of seats of the sort. I'd consider 2004 a decent year for a warm up run there for '06 or '08- getting the name recognition, first donors, a complete idea of the district and its interests and powers, etc.