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How much money would Mrs. Kerry spend in 2004? Mrs. Dean?

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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:19 PM
Original message
How much money would Mrs. Kerry spend in 2004? Mrs. Dean?
Teresa Heinz Kerry can spend as much as she wants on independent advertising attacking Bush. This is one critical difference between Kerry and all the other candidates. While Bush spends $60 to $70 million between April and September crucifying the Democratic nominee (like when Clinton shlonged Dole in '96 for 5 long months--there was NOTHING left of Dole by Labor Day), EdwardsDeanSharptonBraunGephardtLieberman will have $0 to spend and have to wait until September when they get matching money. This gives Bush a tremendous advantage

Not if Kerry is the candidate. I estimate that Teresa would unlock the Heinz fortune and would spend at least $50 million in that April to September time period, and then provide another $70 to $80 million for September and October. She said she would spend if there are personal attacks. So unless the rabid-dog politics of the Repukes can be curtailed (HAHAHAHAHA), Mrs. Kerry will spend at least $120 million on anti-Bush ads in 2004.

It's up to the primary voters. Dean and Edwards are good people and would make fair candidates, but with Kerry's Silver Star, his glittering progressive LEADERSHIP (helped to end the Vietnam War with his Senate testimony, anti-war rally introduction by John Lennon, Seabrook Nuke Plant campaign, Iran-Contra investigation, closed BCCI and on and on) John Kerry stands head and shoulders above these two as an electable candidate.

And when you add in his wife's money, not voting for Kerry means you are saying to Bush: "Go ahead and shlong the Democratic nominee for 5 months until they have as much chance as Dole did in '96". It's unfortunate, but politics is so broken in this country that only a Democrat with hundreds of million of dollars will have a chance to avoid Dole's fate! At the most Dean could raise $100 million to go up against Bush's 250 million and THEN IT WILL BE TOO LATE ANYWAY.

How much money do you think Teresa would spend between April and November if Kerry is the candidate? How much money do you think Mrs. Dean could spend?

IMAGINE PRESIDENT KERRY!
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Dudley_DUright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. I am sorry to burst your bubble
but the Kerry campaign has already determined that it would not be legal or politically smart to spend money from the Heinz fortune for his campaign, directly or "independently". I would prefer the Dean method of mobilizing millions of small donors.
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Sorry my bubble is rock-solid
You're dead-wrong. She cannot spend direct dollars on the Kerry campaign (hard dollars) but she can spend independently as much as she wants on "Issue Ads" that attack Bush (soft money). She cannot advertise Kerry but she can attack Bush 24/7 with as much money as she wants. Most analysts I've heard agree that she will spend the money no matter how fine the Kerrys are parsing it now...

IMAGINE PRESIDENT KERRY!!
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Dudley_DUright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Sorry but you are dead wrong
See article posted below.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Me, too! I don't get stars in my eyes when I think about a
candidate's wife's money!

Mrs. Dean is out earning her keep, though!

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AnAmerican Donating Member (769 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Bubble bursting - Part II
Matching funds are dispersed in January. Not September.
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Yes but...
Yes there are some funds released in January BUT the big matching funds are dispersed after the convention to the nominee, typically tens of million of dollars. Between April and September, the winner of the Democratic nomination will have nothing to spend on advertising -- not even the Kerry campaign!

Mrs. Kerry however will be exposing Bush all the ding-dong day and wouldn't that be FUN! THis will keep Kerry close to Bush rather than him falling too far behind. It's the New Politics, like it or not.
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Sorry but this article confirms what I said--Read the last paragraph
She can't use the money for his presidential race but she can blast Bush 24/7. Look at the last paragraph in the UsaToday article:

"Despite the restrictions, Heinz Kerry's wealth still could find its way into the race. She could give a large sum to an outside group that could spend the money on Kerry's behalf; the group's expenditure would have to be independent of Kerry's campaign. She also could pay for ads if she feels she has been attacked in the race. "

I estimate $120 million at least from Mrs. Kerry. How much do you think she would spend now that you know the facts?
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Dudley_DUright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:44 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. See "politically smart" comment above
Edited on Mon Jul-14-03 08:45 PM by Dudley_DUright
The paragraph you cite is pure speculation. It would be monumentally stupid for Kerry to allow his wife to spend a 100 million dollars on his campaign. It would look like he was not able to fund raise money on his own and I assure you the "independent" fiction would not hold up. If you are so sure that they plan to do this, why don't you e-mail the Kerry campaign and confirm it with them?
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. It's speculation but it is the most likely scenario
Edited on Mon Jul-14-03 08:55 PM by RegenerationMan
First of all, the Kerry campaign in hard money will raise at least $25 million in the primary race and then at least another $100 million for the general, so they will have raised as much as any Demo nominee in hard money.

What we're talking about is soft money. I'm speculating that Bush will spend at least $60 to $70 million shlonging the nominee between April and September. That's speculation too. You think Mrs. Kerry is going to sit by and let Bush accuse her of being a loose cannon and her husband John of having Aloof Disease? I speculate not and so do most analysts.

The Kerrys want this more than anything and she will spend that money.

It might turn out that that money wins a close race you know. It won't be easy to beat Bush's $250 million in hard money AND GOD KNOWS HOW MUCH IN SOFT MONEY (Yes, the GOP will use Issue ads as well). This is hardball, my friend, and the Heinz fortune is hard assets.
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Dudley_DUright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Have you heard of a little law called
McCain-Feingold?
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. McCain-Feingold didn't affect the soft money
Sorry again but McCain-Feingold was a shuck that obviously fixed nothing. It did not stop the soft money at all. It revised some hard money regs mostly and even that change was slight.

So far you've moved the goal post back five times in this thread. Keep it up, you are making my point in spades!
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. It regulated soft money in many different ways
First, ads can't be run within 90 days of an election unless paid for with hard money. The election is in November which means that her money couldn't be spent past August (early August).

Second, her being the wife of the candidate makes the independence thing a huge hurdle. I can't see that passing the smell test.

Third, they are both on record saying they won't do this barring Ms. Heinz being attacked.

Fourth, their own lawyer says this can't be done.

The money isn't going to happen.
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Straight from the horse's mouth: Mrs. Kerry-- "I can do what I want".
Too bad about early August if that's true. But better late and better more than never!

Here you are straight from the horse's mouth in a USA Today article. Sounds she will go ahead and then let the courts figure it out while she is First Lady. Sounds like a PLAN to me!!

Here it is:

In an interview in USA Today published just three weeks ago, after Kerry said he doesn't plan to use HIS wealth, Teresa Kerry said, "But I can do what I want." She added: "I've always said I do not believe in spending personal money for campaigns, but I do believe in the right of defense, correcting one's reputation."

She already thinks she can do what she wants and remember not only is she the $800 million pound gorilla, this lady is a pistol and will fight back.

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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Teresa would spend the money, then the FEC decides AFTER the election
From the USA Today article (see link in this thread)

"Federal Election Commission officials said they couldn't make a formal ruling unless they get a request, but their initial reading of the law suggests that Kerry couldn't use his wife's assets for his presidential race."

For his race--but on soft money questions, the FEC always waits until they get a request, THEN THEY TYPICALLY RULE AFTER THE ELECTION IS LONG OVER.

So she would not be STOPPED from spending whatever she wants. She's worth $800 mil and knows exactly what she can do. That's why she says "I can do what I want".
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-15-03 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #18
22. This is all she has to do
She sends a couple of million to the Sierra Club. Without talking to her, they run a couple of million dollars in anti-Bush ads and wait for the next check. She then sends a couple of million to the NAACP, NARAL, NOW, etc. etc. Even if the RNC requests a ruling, the FEC would not be able to find any collusion. You could drive a truck through the current loopholes.

I'm not saying this is the only reason to vote for Kerry! Perot spent $60 mil of his own money but I would never vote for him. It's because Kerry is the most electable WITHOUT his wife's money but when you add $120 mil or thereabouts on top of that, Kerry becomes twice as electable than he already is.
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Dudley_DUright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 08:31 PM
Response to Original message
3. See this article for details
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quinnox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. This is one of the big advantages Kerry has
over the rest of the field. An extremely wealthy wife. Also, Kerry himself is wealthy too, although nothing like the estimated 600-800 million Heinz fortune. I also think she will use the money, it is unlikely the RNC or Bush wouldn't use lowdown attack ads on Kerry (should he win the nomination) during the time period before the convention.
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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
14. All righty-then - who gives a flying F what people think of
Teresa and her money - she certainly does not care what anyone thinks. Her goal is her husband's goal and anything she can do LEGALLY to help, she will.

I am right there with them - I will contribute anything I can to get this idio-asshole out of our WH.

They are a combination of what we are looking for - there are many who are idealistic but un-realistic - Kerry can beat * in a heartbeat - let's give him that chance.
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RegenerationMan Donating Member (179 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Exactly, Kerry is thus the best chance to beat Bush
Edited on Mon Jul-14-03 09:15 PM by RegenerationMan
And that ain't no Fuzzy Math.

It's called ELECTABILITY, people. Think about it.

IMAGINE PRESIDENT KERRY!

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clar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-03 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Disgusting posts
I like Kerry, but extreme and unthinking partisanship on behalf of any candidante bugs me no end. Lots of reasons to be for Kerry. His wife's money? Not one of them. BTW, unless you have some inside source, there is no way you can know if, or how much, she'd spend.
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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-15-03 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
20. True Mrs Dean doesn't have Teresa Heinz Kerry's Money
so she won't be filling any campaign coffers. She has already made clear that she will be practicing medicine during the campaign and will be doing that even if Dean is elected. We need Kerry because his wife will help bankroll his campaign. C'mon.
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VoteClark Donating Member (775 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-15-03 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Money should not be what elects the best person for President. It
should be based on the best candidate for the position. Kerry is my second choice for President. But I don't think we should pick a candidate because he is wealthy. I believe this undermines the purpose of the Democratic party and what it stands for.
I think that if Kerry gets the nomination it is perfectly fair for Mrs. Kerry to use her money to promote Kerry up to what Bush spends. Democrats are virtually bankrupt. We will only have about $500 million while the Republicans will have about $650 Million. So if the Heinz account is tapped to make the difference that is fine.
Kerry will pull ahead of Dean, I am sure of that but I honestly think Clark will beat Kerry. As a matter of fact, I think that Kerry and Dean are beginning to dislike each other to the point that when one drops from the race, they will back another candidate to defeat them.


J4Clark

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