Florida Election 2004

There was a post a little while ago about how Pennsylvania may be the best chance for Democrats to pick up House seats in 2004. I also think that Florida will be a good oppurtunity to pick up seats. The state has been gerrymandered by the republicans more than anywhere in the country. Florida is the ultimate swing state yet republicans hold an advantage of 18-7. Part of this also has to do with incumbents who have been around for a long time, but some may retire.

FL-5 Ginny Brown-Waite, a republican, was elected last year in this slightly republican district by defeating incumbent Democrat Karen Thurman narrowly. Thurman may run again and considering how Bush got 54% of the vote the Brown-Waite will have an advantage. I still think that we have a good oppurtunity if Thurman runs a good campaign and if 2004 is at least a pretty good year for Democrats

FL-9 Michael Bilirakis has been the in Congress since 1982 but he has said that he is considering a retirement. If he runs then we don't have a shot, but if he doesn't then we may have some hope. This district also gave Bush 54% of the vote in 2000. Clearly, the republicans will have an advantage in this district but a good campaign could bring this seat into the democratic column.

FL-10 Under republican house rules Bill Young will lose his chairmanship of the House Appropriations Committee after 2004. Therefore, it is very possible that Young who will be 74 next year will decide to retire. This seat gave Gore 51% of the vote in 2000. An open seat would be a great chance for a democratic pickup and it would be one of the most highly contested races in the country. If Young does run then we can probably forget about it.

FL-12 (correction: FL-13) Katherine Harris has this seat and the district also gave Bush 54% in 2000, but we obviously want to knock her off. It will be very difficult given this seats republican lean but it certainly is possible.

FL-15 This is David Weldon's seat and he is considering a run for senate. Like so many districts in Florida it gave Bush 54% of the vote in 2000. If Weldon doesn't run then he willwin since he got 63% last year but obviously we have a chance in an open seat.

FL-16 Mark Foley is running for Senate so this seat is suddenly open. Like most seats in this state it leans republican but it only gave Bush 53% of the vote. A Democrat would have a strong chance here like in many other potential open seats across the state.

FL-22 Theoretically Clay Shaw could retire since he is in his 60's but that is unlikely because he could very well be Ways and Means Committee chairman pretty soon. He almost lost in 2000 and could be stronly challenged again if he does run. This district actually voted for Gore by 4 percentage points. The district was made more republican in 2002 but still a great candidate like Elaine Bloom in 2000 could beat him.

All of our seats seem pretty safe unless Allen Boyd runs for senate, which is very possible, in which case the republican leaning 2nd would probably go to the republicans. Hopefully, a lot of republicans will retire so we can pick up some seats here. The senate looks bad if Graham doesn't run. The democratic candidates seem pretty bad right now even though the repubicans candidates don't look much better. If Graham does run then we should be pretty safe. If he is on the ticket that may help all these congressional races.

There was a post a little while ago about how Pennsylvania may be the best chance for Democrats to pick up House seats in 2004. I also think that Florida will be a good oppurtunity to pick up seats. The state has been gerrymandered by the republicans more than anywhere in the country. Florida is the ultimate swing state yet republicans hold an advantage of 18-7. Part of this also has to do with incumbents who have been around for a long time, but some may retire.


Redistricting helped the Republicans by cramming all the Democrats into a few seats in the state.





FL-5 Ginny Brown-Waite, a republican, was elected last year in this slightly republican district by defeating incumbent Democrat Karen Thurman narrowly. Thurman may run again and considering how Bush got 54% of the vote the Brown-Waite will have an advantage. I still think that we have a good oppurtunity if Thurman runs a good campaign and if 2004 is at least a pretty good year for Democrats

Thurman lost because they removed Alachua County's town of Gainsville from the seat. Without it she lost to Brown-Waite very narrowly. For her to get her seat back it is going to be very hard for her. That college town being out of her district basically ended her career. If she wants to run again she will have a tough time ahead of her.


FL-9 Michael Bilirakis has been the in Congress since 1982 but he has said that he is considering a retirement. If he runs then we don't have a shot, but if he doesn't then we may have some hope. This district also gave Bush 54% of the vote in 2000. Clearly, the republicans will have an advantage in this district but a good campaign could bring this seat into the democratic column.

According to NCEC Florida 9 went 52-45 for Bush. That means that a Democrat coulc theoretically contest the seat should Bilrakis retire. But it would be a tough race. This seat leans to the GOP so a Democratic victory would be a surprise. But Democrats need to win seats like this one if they want to be the majority in the House again.

FL-10 Under republican house rules Bill Young will lose his chairmanship of the House Appropriations Committee after 2004. Therefore, it is very possible that Young who will be 74 next year will decide to retire. This seat gave Gore 51% of the vote in 2000. An open seat would be a great chance for a democratic pickup and it would be one of the most highly contested races in the country. If Young does run then we can probably forget about it.

This is a swing seat and I think that a Democrat could win it if he retires. If it is not open then it is out of the question. Pinellas County did support Gore in 2000 so this is a good chance of a pick up should the seat become open.

FL-12 Katherine Harris has this seat and the district also gave Bush 54% in 2000, but we obviously want to knock her off. It will be very difficult given this seats republican lean but it certainly is possible.

This seat is not in contention. Harris represents FL-13 actually, not FL-12. SW Florida is heavily Republican. Those counties are not hospitable to Democrats in the least.

FL-15 This is David Weldon's seat and he is considering a run for senate. Like so many districts in Florida it gave Bush 54% of the vote in 2000. If Weldon doesn't run then he willwin since he got 63% last year but obviously we have a chance in an open seat.

This is a seat that did elect Democrats as recently as the early 1990s. It elected Bill Nelson and Jim Bacchus, if I recall. This is another type of seat Democrats need to win if they want control of the House back.

FL-16 Mark Foley is running for Senate so this seat is suddenly open. Like most seats in this state it leans republican but it only gave Bush 53% of the vote. A Democrat would have a strong chance here like in many other potential open seats across the state.

Actually FL-16 went for Bush 51-46% in 2000. But it would be a really brutal race that would probably come down to 1-2000 votes. But this is a seat that should be targeted heavily.

FL-22 Theoretically Clay Shaw could retire since he is in his 60's but that is unlikely because he could very well be Ways and Means Committee chairman pretty soon. He almost lost in 2000 and could be stronly challenged again if he does run. This district actually voted for Gore by 4 percentage points. The district was made more republican in 2002 but still a great candidate like Elaine Bloom in 2000 could beat him.

FL-22 gave 53% of the vote to Gore. A strong Democrat could give Shaw a run for his money.

All of our seats seem pretty safe unless Allen Boyd runs for senate, which is very possible, in which case the republican leaning 2nd would probably go to the republicans.

FL-2 is a swing district. It would be a tossup. But the Democrat who would win here is not the type that would impress most DUers because he would have to be somewhat moderate on the cultural war issues. But that seat is winnable.

Hopefully, a lot of republicans will retire so we can pick up some seats here. The senate looks bad if Graham doesn't run. The democratic candidates seem pretty bad right now even though the repubicans candidates don't look much better. If Graham does run then we should be pretty safe. If he is on the ticket that may help all these congressional races.

FL-5: Thurman only lost 46%-48%...I agree that Brown-Waite is favored, but not overly favored. If there's some sort of "wave", we have a shot.

FL-15: Represented by Bill Nelson (D) 1978-1990 and Jim Bacchus (D) 1990-1994. Possible, but I don't see Weldon (FL) retiring any time soon.

FL-16: I totally agree. However, I don't think the DNC is going to target this district (idiots that they are).

There are a couple possible vacancies of Dems running for Senate, but we should be able to hold those easily.

So they won't target it now. But if the Dem challenger can raise money and be competetive then that might just change.

townhall meeting.

SW Florida is heavily Republican. Florida 13 appears below:



Here is how Florida voted in the 2000 presidential race.



All of those counties went comfortably for Bush.

Since 54% isn't that high, we could theoretically pick up this seat, but only if Harris was involved in a major scandal and ran anyway.

hmmmm

Sarasota has always been heavily Republican.

hmmm

It's the most gerrymandered state in the country. the first is the one held by Thurman and now by Brown-Waite (we might be able to beat her just because she's so fucking stupid) and the other is the one held by Allen Boyd now (who himself is safe but if he were to leave it could easily go either way.) Most of the one listed here are long shots that can only happen in retirements, and something else to consider: The Jeb machine still runs the state.

FL-5

Ginny Brown-Waite is one of the stupidest people in Congress. That said, this district swings to Repukes and unless Thurman can put up the fight of her life, Brown-Waite is here for good. Thurman would do better to try for state office in 2006 (I wouldn't say governor, but if Sen. Bill Nelson runs for governor and Bob Butterworth stays out of the race, and Peter Deutsch is already in the Senate, then Thurman could be the 2006 Senatorial candidate). It's a lot of ifs, but not far-fetched ifs. I was really disappointed to see her leave the House, so I'd like her back in Congress.

FL-9

If it's open, we've got a shot. I completely agree that we have to start targetting seats in states like Florida and Pennsylvania (I was the one who posted that earlier), where Democrats should have many more seats.

FL-10

With Bill Young, running it's basically out of the question. With him retiring, this becomes one of our greatest pickup opportunities.

FL-13

Unless Harris is involved in a scandal, this seat will stay Repuke. I hold out hope that Jan Schneider could come back and win this, but in reality our best shot at this seat was 2002. The anti-Harris machine probably won't be as recent in people's memories as it was in 2004. However, the DSCC is targetting this race and if the margins start to close, we could consider this seat. However, if we don't take it in 2004, we probably won't ever take it.

It just isn't going to happen. The Sarasota area is heavily Republican. It is not as Republican as Ft. Myers and Naples, but still GOP leaning.

so the district can't be that Republican leaning and Thurman could easily oust her with a major anti-Bush backlash as well. And yes, Ginny Brown-Waite is STUPID. She makes Bush look like Einstein (I can't believe I said that, but it's true)

FL-15

Again, if Weldon runs, we can't win. However, if the seat is open, a good challenger could take this seat.

FL-16

Foley's dropped out of the Senate race, which could mean a Repuke lock here. Though he'll be targetted, I doubt he'll lose. Possibly he's looking at a 2006 Senate run, which could mean this seat will open up in 2006.

FL-22

If Shaw retires, this seat should (and probably will) be ours. I think a strong challenger could try and take him down. This seat nearly went to us with Elaine Bloom (I still hope that she's our eventual nominee for Peter Deutsch's seat).

Foley has re-announced his candidacy...this seat is probably safe Repuke.

It should be targetted heavily.