Don't write off John Kerry

But first he must learn how to play the Vietnam card

WHAT'S up with John Kerry? In more normal times he would be the Democratic front-runner, setting the pace, soaking up publicity and creating that all-important sense of inevitability. He is not only a well-known senator from the Democratic power-house of Massachusetts. He is also a decorated Vietnam-war veteran who was thinking seriously about international terrorism back in the days when George Bush's idea of foreign policy was a day trip to Oklahoma.

Yet he is forever lost in the crowd. Today the man in the limelight is Howard Dean. A few months ago it was John Edwards. Dick Gephardt can take comfort from the fact that he is the favourite to win the Iowa caucus. Joe Lieberman leads the field in name-recognition. Even Al Sharpton can boast of being a front-runner—among black Americans. Mr Kerry is earning a reputation as the man who is not doing as well as expected.

Mr Kerry has suffered from being an embodiment of the Democratic establishment at a time when the party's grass-roots are in the mood for rebellion. Rather than admiring his lantern jaw and senatorial manner, the populist wing of the Democratic Party mutters about his blue blood and aloof manner. Rather than admiring his sophisticated straddle on the Iraq war (he voted in favour of giving Mr Bush war powers but then relentlessly sniped at him for “rushing to war”), they despise it as being the typical fence-sitting of a Boston Brahmin whose middle name is Forbes, who was partly educated in Switzerland and who married a Heinz heiress. If Mr Kerry talks down to ordinary people, it is not just because he is six-feet-four-inches tall.

At the same time, the party's conservative wing distrusts his liberal Massachusetts politics. He worked with Michael Dukakis (as his lieutenant-governor) before joining Ted Kennedy in the Senate. He opposes the death penalty and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, supports gun control and favours “constructive engagement” with Cuba. Try selling that in the South.

All this helps to explain why Mr Kerry has found the primary season harder than expected. But none of it means that his goose is cooked. Remember how quickly the John Edwards boom faded as he was exposed to scrutiny. The spotlight on Mr Dean will reveal the insurgent's faults as well as his virtues. At one July 4th parade Karl Rove, Mr Bush's chief strategist, was overheard laughing as a group of Dean supporters marched past: “Yeah, that's the one we want.” Mr Rove's enthusiasm for the populist doctor will surely give many Democrats pause for thought.


http://economist.com/world/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1924391

but, the article itself could use some tightening up with its facts. More homework from the journalists would be desirable.

It is entirely possible that he may yet win the nomination. However, campaigns are about the future and not the past and as commendable as his service in Vietnam was and his anti-war efforts after leaving the service; I think his biggest problem has been his vote for using military force in Iraq--at least with the progressive wing of the party. Plus, he expected to be doing better with the voters Dean is attracting.

He still has money in the bank and is polling well in NH that he could pull it out--so I certainly don't write him off.

A recent poll shows Dean at 12 percent, and Kerry at 10 percent. But the same poll when asking the same people the question, which candidate has the best chance of chance of beating Bush in 2004, placc=es ONLY Kerry in the 40 percent area, giving Kerry 42 percent to Bush's 50 percent. All of the other candidates fall in the low 30's in being able to actually run a campaign against Bush with a chance of winning. Since the marging of error on this poll was 6 percent, this places Kerry alone, almost neck and neck againt Bush. Even Dean supporters in this poll beleive Kerry more electable.

OF N.H. with the highest population. SO far the polls have been equally weighted for all areas of the state, but the area in which Dean is popular are rather smaller in population, but Kerry polls way above Dean in the Southern area near Massachusetts.

'His second advantage is that, despite the jeers about being a Dukakis clone, Mr Kerry is a centrist. His opposition to the first Gulf war was an exception to his general support for action abroad. He has criticised two of the liberals' sacred cows, affirmative action and the education establishment, while supporting free trade and welfare reform. His hobbies include hunting. He can be positively poetic about the subject of killing and gutting doves, quail and deer. That does sell in the South.'

"His second advantage is that, despite the jeers about being a Dukakis clone, Mr Kerry is a centrist. His opposition to the first Gulf war was an exception to his general support for action abroad. He has criticised two of the liberals' sacred cows, affirmative action and the education establishment, while supporting free trade and welfare reform."

This is fantastic that The Economist is painting Kerry as a centrist! The two issues they mention were only statements questioning affirmative action and teacher's tenure. Kerry quickly returned to the fold before a single vote was cast, but it still makes news that he even thought it.

And yes, he does believe that free trade has the potential to be a positive feature of globalization, but only after serious labor and environmental regulations are put in place. As for welfare reform, well, you can't win them all. That is where I part ways with Kerry. However, he has also proposed several very strong measures for killing corporate welfare and cleaning up the Defense budget.

...And so the misperception continues that Dean is the progressive and Kerry is the centrist. I am perfectly content with that - I'll take a progressive that appears moderate any day.

Kerry is the only person they would consider a centrist.

All of the other dem candidates would be considered right-center in Britain, including Kucinich for his up until recent pro-life stance.

Hell In Britain they consider that the U.S. does not have one libberal party.

They just don't get it....

Kerry runs a machine, and the machine says "hold" , "hold" , "hold" and then when october\November hits, we hit them with everything we gots.

When they don't have any cards left to pull out of their hat.