2004 Governor Races to Watch

Democratic Seats:

North Carolina-Gov. Mike Easley is facing a tough reelection. While Easley isn't hated, he isn't loved either. Democrats typically have trouble in the South, but we now the good (Landrieu's Senate Race) and the bad (Roy Barnes's reelection race) ways to run campaigns. At this point, a crowded Repuke primary seems likely, which will only help Easley. The frontrunners for the Repuke nomination are Richard Vinroot or Patrick Ballantine. The seat is a tossup, slightly leaning Democrat if I were forced to choose.

Missouri-Impossible to predict. There's no way of telling how Matt Blunt's father and his corruption will affect this race. Additionally, Democrats must decide whether to support Claire McCaskill or Bob Holden in the primary.

Indiana-A conservative state, this looks like our most vulnerable seat. Gov. Kernan isn't running, and it looks likely to be Mitch Daniels v. Joe Andrew. Though Daniels will be the fave, an anti-Bush wave could push Andrew in.

The other seats (West Virginia, Washington, and Delaware) look like they'll stay in Democratic hands.

Republican Seats:

Montana-Gov. Judy Martz is about as popular as the plague, and she's not running. Brian Schweitzer, who nearly beat Sen. Burns in what nearly became the biggest upset of 2000, is running in 2004. He's raising tons of cash, but will still face a tough competition from Sec. of State Bob Brown. It will be close, but I feel that Schweitzer will pull it off.

Vermont-One of the most liberal states in the nation, Vermont has a Repuke governor in Jim Douglas. Rep. Bernie Sanders is rumored to want to run, and he'd win. Whoever is the Democratic nominee could very easily have coattails if Howard Dean is the presidential candidate. In fact, if Dean is at the top of the ticket, this seat leans Democratic.

Utah-Gov. Leavitt won't run for reelection, and while this seat leans Republican, Democrats have one of their best chances here in Scott Matheson, Jr. Matheson's father was a popular governor, and this state (like Wyoming) is not set against electing Democrats to the governor's mansion. Though it leans Republican, this could be close.

From what I heard he is very popular and the Rethugs have screwed the state big time!!! The Dem Presidential candidate should try for this state too!!!


:dem:

I meant to type Schweitzer. My bad.

:shrug:

Kernan might run in Indiana, although it's still unlikely.

is a way to judge whether the public would approve of Kernan running. I still doubt he'll run, but he'd be our best candidate (I wonder why he ruled out the run in the first place). If he doesn't run in 2004, I'm hoping he'll give the Senate run in 2006 a try, if Sen. Lugar retires. Kernan would be the favorite in that race.

..in fact he probably still won't have selected a Lt. Governor by then.

Jim Douglas actually isn't such a bad guy. Vermont's gubanatorial term is only 2 years. Vermonters may well give Douglas another term. Bernie's not running though the progressive mayor of Burlington probable is. It'd be nice to recapture the governor's seat, but I'm not counting on it.

and Douglas might well beat him, although I don't know. I guess I assumed Doug Racine -- a real Democrat-- would run again, and if there is no third party competition from the Progresive Anthony Pollina (sp?), unlike last time, he'd likely win.

Racine was given lukewarm support -- at best -- from Dean. The two men apparently didn't get along real well when Racine was Dean's Lt Gov. Racine being much more liberal.

The thought of a Repug like Douglas -- who owes his ultimate loyalty to Shrub and has made conservative noises when he's out-of-state or when talking to small audiences in the state's more GOP corners -- unsettles me. He isn't a "bad guy", as these guys go, but he has raised hell with sectors of the social services and education funding, and has taken credit for the state's relatively good fiscal foting based on stuff Dean did.

Notes from a displaced Vermonter, for what they are worth.

But he is from the same party as Bush, Cheney, and Tom DeLay.

I agree that Racine would probably beat Douglas this time around. However, Bernie Sanders would be the best candidate. I know that he's a third party candidate, but he's basically a very liberal Democrat (he's always caucused with us). If Sanders doesn't run for his House seat, I'm hoping that Aud. Elizabeth Ready jumps into the race.

NH Gov. Craig Benson might, might, might be vulnerable. He has run a fustercluck of an administration, with enormous staff turnover, putting his mistress, er, "personal assistant" in a politically sensitive homeland security post, having his Health and Human Services Comissioner resign after being caught forming an insurance company on the side, turning the budget process into a foodfight.

Unfortunately, you can't beat not much with nothing.

The Democratic field of wannabes is frightfully weak. Only Dick Swett (ex congressman and ambassador) and John Lynch (chairman of UNH Board of Trustees) could plausibly beat Benson. The others are all fatally flawed:

Lou D'Allesandro: Seen (accurately) as sleazy, on-the-take hack.
Mark Fernald: One-issue campaign got him slaughtered last time.
Clifton Below: Mark Fernald redux
Jim Normand: Too conservative for some party activists
Peter Burling: Too much of a pompous limousine liberal to win
Joe Foster: Could run strong, but not ready to run yet
Bob Baines: Too goofy, and has nasty personal baggage
Sylvia Larsen: Dry as burnt toast

Otherwise, if Swett ran, he'd win. However, I see Swett as wanting to take on Sen. Sununu in 2008.

Governor Benson 51%
Democratic Nominee 26%
undecided 23%
American Research Group
9/11-14/03 4

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/stbyst.htm

I think that Craig Benson should be safe. I don't think there has been a one term governor of New Hampshire since Hugh Gregg in the early 1950's.