Open Senate South-Can the Democrats Keep It?

I'm not trying to be overtly optimistic here. With open seats in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and now Louisiana, we have a lot of work to do in 2004. However, I think that if we follow the following plans, we will be able to win this thing.

Florida
OK, I know there are many Bobcats out there who wish Sen. Graham were headed to the Democratic nomination. However, it looks like he's going to drop out, which will leave him open to run for the Senate. Though Bush may be beating Graham in presidential polls, Bob Graham is still Mr. Florida, and would easily win in a reelection run. Hopefully he'll run.

However, if he doesn't run, I think that we can keep this seat. Though Florida may trend slightly to the right, Rep. Peter Deutsch (the probable candidate to the US Senate if Graham doesn't run) is a better candidate than For. Rep. Bill McCollum (the probable candidate for the GOP). McCollum lost in 2000, and is perceived as an archconservative, which doesn't bode well for him in Florida.

Georgia
Easily our most vulnerable seat. Today, we lost For. Rep. Andy Young as a candidate. Reps. Johnny Isaakson and Mac Collins are out there collecting money. And though he'd be the best candidate, For. Sen. Max Cleland refuses to run.

However, all is not lost. Michelle Nunn, 36-year-old daughter of popular former senator Sam Nunn, is leaning toward a run without Young in the race. Nunn could benefit from a divisive primary. Also, if Repukes nominate archconservative Mac Collins, they could alienate the moderate end of their party, which would then go to Nunn. Additionally, Southern Democratic women do much better statewide than men do.

South Carolina
Though this is the most conservative of Southern states, Democrats have a fantastic candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She's been elected statewide (twice, I believe), and her competition is less than stellar. Rep. Jim DeMint and Bill Condon aren't as good of speakers as Inez, and shes comes across as more likeable.

North Carolina
Many feel that, if it hadn't been for superstar candidate Elizabeth Dole, we'd have Sen. Erskine Bowles right now. Bowles proved in 2002 that he could nearly take down a giant. Polls showed that if he'd had one more month to take on Dole, he would've pulled ahead and won. Now, against a more typical politician (who has millions already in campaign funds), Bowles will have his chance. Though NC leans Repuke, they have been very open to electing Democrats and all of their recent elections have been marginal.

Louisiana
With the recent announcement that Sen. Breaux will retire, Democrats are left with a seat that should've been safe, that is now marginal. Louisiana likes conservative Democrats far more than conservative Republicans (they haven't elected a Republican to the Senate since Reconstruction). Rep. Chris John will be our nominee, and should be able to beat Rep. David Vitter.

However, none of this can happen without almost universal support from Democrats. We need to retain the South in order to win the Senate.

will be open and possibly Florida (lets hope Graham will run for the senate if he drops out of presidential race). It will be tough but we have good candidates in NC (Erskine Bowles) and SC (Inis Tennenbaum). We need to do some heavy duty recruiting in Georgia and Louisiana. Maybe Att Gen. Thurston Baker in Ga or Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin?

or at least are very unlikely to run.

Maybe I'm feeling pessimistic today (hey I'm gonna die on April 16, 2005) but I don't think we can count on the South.

They don't even run a Democrat in Virginia anymore. That tells you something.

I hope Mr. Graham can keep his seat. I hope Edwards keeps his too (if he decides to drop out).

The right wing machine will fire up and blow all those hopefulls you mentioned away. That's why established, experienced politians like Cleland and Young won't run.

Mark Warner
Tim Kaine

I live here and have been nothing short of impressed with them both.

...Presidential candidate.

But since VA doesn't let them serve more than one term? No VA Gov will be Pres/VP any time soon.

After Mark Warner nearly beat Sen. Warner in 1996, we should've run someone, but in reality, who could honestly beat a Repuke institution like John Warner?

However, I think that with this sagging economy, Democrats are looking better and better. All of this pessimism is warranted (after the recent losses in South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia), but let's not forget that in 2000, we won in Georgia and Florida, and in 1998 we won in Arkansas, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The South isn't impossible, it's just a lot harder. We have five vacant seats, and if we run the right types of campaigns we can hold them all. However, we Democrats have to work at it.

My goal in 2004:

Sen. Inez Tenenbaum (D-SC)
Sen. Peter Deutsch (D-FL)
Sen. Erskine Bowles (D-NC)
Sen. Chris John (D-LA)
Sen. Michelle Nunn (D-GA)

Zell, you smell. Bummer about Clelland. Lewis should...naw...nevermind...he'd lose seniority.

From the AJC...
"As confusion over Young's plans swirled Thursday, the name of former Democratic Sen. Max Cleland surfaced as a possible candidate. Cleland, who was upset last year by Republican Saxby Chambliss, was the subject of an article in the Washington publication Roll Call in which unnamed Democratic senators encouraged him to run. Cleland could not be reached for comment.

But political observers believe Cleland would face tough going. 'It's very hard for a defeated incumbent senator to regain a Senate seat,' said Merle Black, an Emory University political scientist. 'It would be an uphill battle.'

Young said today that he would back Cleland if he decided to make another Senate run.

'If he decided to run, I would do more than I did before,' Young said. 'I feel we let Max down..."

<http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/1003/03young.html>

The idea of a defeated incumbent coming back and winning isn't completely unplausible. Sen. Slade Gorton did it in 1988. Additionally, I think a lot of people got really mad after the election because of how Cleland was treated. Cleland seems ready for a race, I really wish he'd run. I have a feeling he's holding out until 2008, but we really need him in 2004. However, if he doesn't run, I think that Michelle Nunn could pull it off. Cleland would be our best candidate, though.

FL--Graham said he isn't running for re-election. But as FL has a very late primary that could change. If he doesn't run then it will be a tossup. As the field is too fluid too early to tell. Starts off as a tossup.

GA--Too early to tell. No Dem candidate yet. When we get one we will have a better idea. Leans Republican.

SC--Tenenbaum is our best candidate. But SC is heavily Republican. Leans Republican. I would be surprised if she wins.

NC--This seat hsa changed hands every six years since 1974. This is the famous "cursed seat".

Though considering that McCollum is leading for his nomination and he lost handily in 2000, we could still pick this up.

SC will be the hardest (with the possible exception of GA, if Nunn or Cleland don't run). However, I think the Tenenbaum test is a good one. She is the best possible candidate we could run. If we can't win with her, who can we win with? (For all you people who support Coble, I think that he'd do much better in the governor's race in 2006).

It dependso n who runs.

I think the reason that the NC senate seat is cursed is because of the presidential elections. NC is a safe Republican state, and I think that in general the Republican senate candidate in presidential election years rides these coattails. For example, in 1992, Lauch Faircloth (R) won because of George Bush pulling Republicans to the polls. Because the Edwards seat is up every six years, it is alternatively in a presidential year and an off year, explaining why it goes from Democrat to Republican and back again. Erskine Bowles may be a good candidate, but it's not a good year for him to run. (Of course, 2008 would be worse.)

We might however have a good candidate in Inez Tanenbaum. She is, as far as I know, the favorite to win in SC, or at least has very good chances. She is currently the superintendant of education, I think, and does well with women voters. (Assuming my memory serves me right...)

the two things that help Democrats win in the south are the gender gap and running a mainstream candidate against a fringe partisan. Dole was not percieved as an extreme partisan, and she was able to eliminate any advantage which Democrats usually have with women voters. Richard Burr will not be able to fight this advantage, and is considered much more incendiary than Dole was as a neo-con candidate.

Bowles has a far better chance against Burr than Dole.

n/t

then add that to the black vote and that should be enough to put her over the top.

forget I even posted this, I meant none of it.

the 'curse' will continue, it doesn't matter which party wins.

If we can avoid the stylistic traps that have hobbled our competetiveness in the south, not horrendously losing the NASCAR vote, we'll stand a chance. If we do well, the elections should all be determined by the quality of the individual candidates, and we will probably win four of the five seats.

Despite very disappointing polls and fundraising. He needs to hang in there. Clark and Dean are both flaky enough to self-destruct at some point in the campaign. If we have settled on either of them as front runner before the convention, we would be stuck like the Republicans are with Bush. If Graham drops out to re-run for the senate, it would rule him out from a position in the new Democratic administration because Jeb Bush would have to appoint his successor. It is better to get a new Democratic Senator elected in his/her own right. That way Graham would be available as a compromise candidate in the case of a deadlocked convention, or he could be our next Secretary of Homeland Security in the Dean or Clark administration.

a deadlocked convention? When did that last happen? :smoke: