A Plan to Win Back the House

I've heard many, many posters on DU say that the Democrats can't take back the House in 2004. However, I feel that we can take it back, it just will be very difficult. Here are some ways we could take it back:

Target the Freshmen
Democrats did poorly in the 2002 elections. However, we have the opportunity in 2004 to rectify this by targeting certain freshmen. Max Burns (GA-12) is in a Democratic district that doesn't reflect his voting record at all. We have to win this one in 2004. Reps. Phil Gingrey (GA-11), Rick Renzi (AZ-1), and Jim Gerlach all barely won in 2004 and should be prime targets in 2004. Additionally, we need to target Reps. Steve Pearce (NM-2), Mike Rogers (AL-3), John Kline (MN-2), and Bob Beauprez (CO-7), all freshman who we could take down in 2004.

Actually Beat the Perennial Targets
Each year, we run races against certain representatives, yet never pull off a victory. In 2004, we have to make a concentrated effort to win these seats. Rep. Anne Northup (KY-3) barely wins each election cycle in the only Democratic seat in Kentucky. Rep. John Hostettler (IN-8) has a top tier challenger in Jon Jennings this year, and we should be able to pull off that seat. Rep. Jim Leach (IA-2) represents the most Democratic seat in Iowa. In a presidential election year, we should be able to win here. Rep. Rob Simmons (CT-2) district may be the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the country. We have to take him down. Re-redistricting in New Mexico could give us Rep. Heather Wilson's (NM-1) seat. Economic unrest in North Carolina should make Rep. Robin Hayes (NC-8) vulnerable. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2) should also be susceptible for economic reasons, as long as we don't nominate Jim Humphreys again.

Open Seats
At this point, there aren't a great majority of open seats out there. The most prominent of these is PA-15. We as Democrats will have to defend several open seats (PA-13 and possibly LA-7).

The No-One-Predicted-It-Loss
Each election cycle, a representative loses that no one thought would (2000-Rep. David Minge, 2002-Rep. Felix Grucci). In 2004, several Republicans could gain the No-One-Predicted-It-Loss title: Rep. Jennifer Dunn (WA-8), Rep. Nancy Johnson (CT-5), and Clay Shaw (FL-22) all are from Democratic districts, yet perennialy win their seats. We should target these in 2004.

now have their assignments. :-)

Actually, I'm close enough to Jim Ramstad's district that anyone who wants to take him out could probably ask for my help, since Martin Sabo isn't going to be voted out any time soon.

but so far have been unsuccessful in convincing my mom to run for Congress.

Which is a pity, because we don't have a candidate yet....

Do you know anything about Murray Levin and State Sen. Connie Williams? I've seen them listed as potential candidates. How do you think they'd do against Gerlach?

Also, any chance that Alyson Schwartz will switch from PA-13 to PA-6 to run?

I'm not familiar with Murray Levin...I'll have to check that.

I highly doubt Schwartz will switch districts. But I'd love it if she did....:evilgrin:

Then we could run Mark Cohen in PA-13.

Do you know if we have any candidates yet for PA-15?

Our best candidate would have been St. Sen. Lisa Boscola, but she decided against.

It looks like yet again we may be conceding a TOSS-UP seat to the Repukes....:grr: :grr:

I have a feeling Janklow's will be an open seat. Will he resign, be expelled, or simply not run for re-election? I don't know, but he's basically busted if he seeks a second term.

Karen Thurman only lost to Brown-Waite by 1%, I believe.

The Republicans took Alachua County and Gainesville out of her seat. But maybe she can take out Brown-Waite.

Janklow is probably going to resign. Most likely, if he is smart, Thune will run back for his old seat.

So she'll be difficult to take down.

As for Janklow, he definitely should be targetted. Stephanie Herseth would win for the Democrats, and the only candidate who would be competitive against her is John Thune, who will probably run for the Senate. If Thune is out of this race, the seat will probably be For. Sen. Larry Pressler v. Herseth, with Herseth having the edge.

Faced with the choice of a brutal Senate campaign or an easy win in the House I think he runs for his old seat. He then gets read to face Johnson in 2008.

Another seat that MAY come into play is MD-1, on the Eastern shore. The Republicans stand to have a brutal primary. It's a heavily Republican seat; but, if the two Republicans beat each other up, we might just have a chance.

He's mayor of Ocean City.

The problem for Democrats is that MD-1 was made more Republican in the last round of redistricting. In order to make MD-2 more hospitable to Democrats they removed the Republican leaning Baltimore suburbs and exurbs in Baltimore and Harford counties and gave them to the 1st. The old 1st was clearly Republican, but the new 1st is even more so.

n/t

becuase Mack Mathias served as a Republican unti 1986.

and Mark Kennedy out of there. Minnesota used to have 6 Democrats: Minge, Luther, Sabo, McCollum, Oberstar, and Peterson. Plus Wellstone. Grams was still in the Senate.

I want to work my ash (;-)) off to make it 6-2 in the House and 1-1 (2-0 by 2008) in the Senate.