National Gallop Poll 7/25 - 7/ 27 2003 Quinnipiac 7/17 - 7/ 22

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 25-27, 2003. N=384 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.


Joe Lieberman 21

Dick Gephardt 16

John Kerry 15

Howard Dean 11

John Edwards 6

Carol Moseley Braun 6

Al Sharpton 5

Bob Graham 4

Dennis Kucinich 2

Other -

No one 2

No opinion 12

Quinnipiac University Poll. July 17-22, 2003. N=372 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.1.

Joe Lieberman 21

Dick Gephardt 16

John Kerry 13

Howard Dean 10

Al Sharpton 6

John Edwards 4

Carol Moseley Braun 4

Bob Graham 3

Dennis Kucinich 2

Don't know 21


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Lieberman will be hard to vote for.

recognition.

This is about as good as it will get for him.

WHEN HE SAID--THE WAR WAS JUSTIFIED BECAUSE SADDAM WAS A SECURITY RISK TO USA AND THE WORLD HE LOST ANY CONTACT WITH ME. HE IS GONE.

It doesn't matter what he stands for. He cannot be elected, simply because he talks too slowly and is a doof.

Take a good look.

He is GONE because the mighty YOU does not agree with him...

Thats sort of amusing.

It seems a lot of people think otherwise, name recognition or not.

Recent polls show that both Dean an Kerry have higher name recognition than Lieberman around the country, so that argument just does not wash at this point in the game.

I dont support Liberman much either, but Lieberman is doing what a lot of other candidates are doing. Lieberman is a rather liberal candidate, and when you look at his record in COngress, and Compare them to Dean, Liebberm,an is far more liberal than Dean. Dean on the other hand is on the far right of what could be considered centrist, but zillions of people beleive that he is the liberal progressive candidate.

The real pity about this democratic campaign is that in all but a few cases, the real candidates are not running. Some scripted talking heads are running, Dean being among them. Lieberman as well, becasue he is being advised that sometone with as liberal a voting record as he has cannot beat Bush.

Same thing with Dean. His record as governor was so conservative that large numbers of Democrats left the democratic party to join a third party, the Progressive Party, in which Dennis Kucinich would feel very comfortable.

Attention Dean supporters, this is not an attempt to start a flame war, but an accurate depiction of Dean, he is rather conservative.

And some of his slips of the tongue are things one might expect to hear out of Rush Limbaugh (about people on welfare going out and getting jobs instead of complaining).

It is well known that Dean was advised to tone down his conservatism for this campaign, and I guess Liebermans people are telling him to take a tougher stance.

than Lieberman nationwide.

There ARE none.

CAN YOU NAME ANY DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES?

All Americans
No, cannot recall any 66%
John Kerry 7%
Howard Dean 7%
Joe Lieberman 6%
Richard Gephardt 3%
Bob Graham 1%
John Edwards 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Al Sharpton 2%
Others 6%

Among Democrats
No, cannot recall any 66%
John Kerry 7%
Howard Dean 7%
Joe Lieberman 6%
Richard Gephardt 3%
Bob Graham 1%
John Edwards 1%

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/07/10/opinion/polls/main562628.shtml

THis is an article, but the original poll and the polling service that did it for CBS was listed by Dean supporters a few weeks ago. The poll was from July 8-9th. You can download the entire pdf of the poll from this site.(I betcha just hate it when I am right...)

Asking people whether they can name any candidates requires them to be keeping up with the campaigns enough to know who is running. That's a lot more complex than simple name recognition.

I suspect that if you just handed people a list of those six or eight names and asked which ones they could identify, Lieberman would come in a lot higher than the rest.

Your post is absolutely misleading.

Name recognition is the following:

Candidate % of people who % of those who would
have heard of: consider voting for:
Dean 37% 32%
Lieberman 80% 45%
Gephardt 75% 45%

(sorry, no information about the other candidates... and I'm sorry it's Fox News too, but it was the first hit in Google :P)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,91441,00.html

Name recognition is when you ask something like: "I'm going to read you a list of Democratic presidential candidates, and you will tell me if you've heard of him or her: Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean, John Kerry, etc..."

Still have DEAN way at the bottom of the polls, Kerry and Gephardt at the top.

I look at Fox polls continually and disregard them.

Sorry, this was a double post.

Three months ago, Dean was an unknown nationally. Two months ago, we saw a blip. A month ago, we saw the beginnings of a real support movement. This month, Gov. Dean is tied for 1st place.

I know you don't like him, but even you have to admit that he's gaining momentum.

Again, I have nothing against Kerry. I think he's a good guy and I agre with a few of his positions..

This CBS poll was being raved about by Dean supporters a few weeks ago, and this is the only reason how I know about it...

You guys will ues ANYTHING to suit your purposes, and then turn against it when it no longer suits your twisted reasoning.

That is what I see in Dean. Dean is a talking head. THe presidential candidated does not even exist in reality.

THe man who said "I represent the Democratic WIng of the Democratic Party is not Howard Dean" That is the creation of a bunch of campaign scriptwriters"

THe "REAL DEAN" is the guy wha made the nasty comments about the unemployed and people on welfare going and getting jobs andy then has to apologize afterwards.

This presidential candidate is mot a miracle, but a mirage:
he Dean delusion
Howard Dean is not a miracle, but a mirage. Gay Democrats should look before they leap onto his deeply flawed bandwagon.

By Wayne Besen

FORMER VERMONT GOV. Howard Dean’s surprising online fund-raising prowess has catapulted him to the front of the Democratic pack to take on George W. Bush. Much of the Dean mania comes from his passionate gay supporters.

Unfortunately, jumping on Dean’s deeply flawed bandwagon may be a catastrophic mistake that will cost the gay rights cause. Howard Dean is not a miracle, but a mirage — albeit not for the reason most often cited.

The most frequent rationale for calling Dean toast against Bush is Dean’s perceived ultra-liberalism. He is sometimes unfairly compared to the failed presidential nominee George McGovern who lost 49 states.

The reality, however, is that Dean’s record as Vermont’s governor is not so liberal. He is a buddy of the National Rifle Association, he cut taxes, and even reformed welfare. And Dean’s anti-war stance seems less of a liability, as body bags filled with American soldiers become regular fare on the evening news.

http://www.sovo.com/2003/7-18/view/columns/deandel.cfm

This is an artcile that suggsts that soiuthern gays not support Howard Dean.

while expecting anyone to accept your biases, judging Dean as dishonest because you looked him and the eye and sensed it. Sort of like the same visceral feeling Smirk gets when he makes decisions about other world leaders but calls Sharon a "man of peace".

You want to play at that level?


Senator John Kerry on the Don Imus show, describing former Republican governor Bill Weld:

"A guy who takes more vacations than people on welfare."

Although often portrayed as progressive, former Vermont governor and Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean falls short on several issues important to progressives, with the Middle East being one of the more glaring.

True, Dean is one of the Democratic presidential hopefuls who opposed the invasion of Iraq (along with Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, conservative Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun, and Rev. Al Sharpton), but he is closer to a hawk when it comes to Israel/ Palestine and US policy toward Iran.

In a major foreign policy speech earlier this year, Dean, while calling for an end to Palestinian violence, did not call for an end to Israeli violence, let alone an end to the illegal Israeli occupation.

And when asked whether his views are closer to the dovish Americans for Peace Now (APN) or the right wing, Sharon-supporting American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), he stated unequivocally in an interview with the Jewish weekly The Forward, "My view is closer to AIPAC's view."

"At one time the Peace Now view was important, but now Israel is under enormous pressure. We have to stop terrorism before peace negotiations," he said.

Similarly, Dean's official campaign position on solving the Palestinian Israeli problem is that "terrorism against Israel must end," but there is no mention of the Israeli violence that has resulted in over 2,391 deaths since September 2000.

http://www.muslimwakeup.com/mainarchive/000119.html

Yeah right, we need another person who supports Sharon in the White House.

roflmao

But Dean Lieberman

and Lieberman had a 6 percent recognition.Kerry and Dean 7 percent..

Dena supporters have been stating thatn once he gets the name recognition and people get to know him, he will blast everyopne else out of the way...

Well it hasnt happened, As a matter of fact what these polls indicate, is that Deancis about as well known as anyone else, but Dean has not jumped into front place, knocking all opponents out of they way.

And Dean has been running, actually campiagning for two years.

And I retract my statement. There has been ONE poll that shows Dean with greater name recognition than Lieberman.

All of us are entitled to the odd goof-up. I have made mine. I will once more agree not to directly attack your point of view, if you will reciprocate. I find you are and intelligent and capable sparring partner in this area, and would rather not argue. I will always continue to post things that I see as disconnects between Deans campaign and his record. Feel free to provide counterpoint, but I will not personally attack.

You were arguing not too long ago that Dean has to have peaked because everyone has already heard of him. But it seems from this poll that my assertion that alot of people couldn't even name ONE Democrat was right on the money. 2/3! And 93% couldn't name Dean. I think he still has no where else to go but UP!!

All that matters is Iowa and New Hampshire. And thank goodness that we have a system in which candidates have to talk with actual voters, a dozen or two at a time. Despite its flaws, it's a great system.

Common wisdom, that is likely no longer true.

The fact was once that wohoever won the New Hampsure Primary would end up being the candidate. AND whoever won the state during the presidential election, woulld win the election. Not true for a long time.

www.zogby.com

Dean: 12%
Gep: 12%
Lieberman 12%
Kerry 9%
Sharpton 4%
Edwards 3%
Mosley Braun 2%
Kucinich 2%
Graham 2%

also according to this poll 61% are unfamiliar with who Dean is compared with only 18% unfamiliar with Lieberman, 25% with Gephardt, and 41% unafamiliar with Kerry.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=724

THAT is name recognition, not what Nicholas_J said on post #6.

The zogby was a simple who would you vote for poll...

That is NOT name regognition at all: agan the CBS POLLS asked ut of these people running for president, which names do you recognize...pure and simple...NAME RECOGNITION...
Perhaps some people here need reading recognition.

So you admit that polls indicate who is more likely to win, then how about:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 25-27, 2003. N=384 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.


Joe Lieberman 21

Dick Gephardt 16

John Kerry 15

Howard Dean 11

John Edwards 6

Carol Moseley Braun 6

Al Sharpton 5

Bob Graham 4

Dennis Kucinich 2

Other -

No one 2

No opinion 12

Quinnipiac University Poll. July 17-22, 2003. N=372 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.1.

Joe Lieberman 21

Dick Gephardt 16

John Kerry 13

Howard Dean 10

Al Sharpton 6

John Edwards 4

Carol Moseley Braun 4

Bob Graham 3

Dennis Kucinich 2

Don't know 21


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm


That two polls with Kerry above, to the one Zogby that you have with Dean above.


Or as usual. do you just pick the few odd polls that favor Dean?

you will see what he says at the end:

"also according to this poll 61% are unfamiliar with who Dean is compared with only 18% unfamiliar with Lieberman, 25% with Gephardt, and 41% unafamiliar with Kerry."

That's what I am talking about.

The Zogby polls asks about favorable/unfavorable opinion, or unfamiliar. 61% are unfamiliar with Dean... thus, 39% of people have heard of him. Now, that is much closer to name recognition than what you said earlier. In the same way, 18% are unfamiliar with Lieberman means that 82% of people have heard of him. (You can do the math for the rest.)

It is obvious that Lieberman has a higher name recognition than Dean, and definitely NOT the opposite.

Was not set up to test for name recognition, wheras the CBS poll was designed TOTALLY to be a name regonition poll.

that's horrendous...especially for a national poll! Don't take any poll serious that doesnt have at least an N of 1200+...

The problem is that a small N is extremely unreliable....if they can't bother to get at least 1200 RESPONDENTS...then dont even bother paying attention...it's bad stats!

Is about right to get 95 percent reialbility with a MoE of about around 5 percent...

But only areas that have any rtliability in any poll is when something goes OUTSIDE of the margins of error. A recent poll in Iowa has Dean at 19 percent, but Gephardt at 36 percent with a 4.5 MoE. So far ahead of Dean that with any reliabilty at all, Dean is not going to win Iowa. A distant second place at best. except if Gephardt quits, and tyheyn no one knows who Gephardt voters will switch to.
In the latest American Research Dean for N.H. Dean is at 19 percent, Kerry at 25 percent with a 4.0 MoE. Again, OUTSIDE, of the margins. This is about the only area polls are relaible in. All of the other polls have all of the candidates at dead equal. in Vorting, But then when you go to the areas like favorability, Kerry falls ahead of Dean, beyond the margins of error.

One poll that gives Dean 12 points and Kerry ten points also gives Kerry the closet point spread to beat Bush, indicating that in thhat poll, even Dean supporters think Kerry has a beter chance of brating Bush than Dean does.

I found the gallup results on usatoday.com. The results reported on polling report are for registered dems or dem-leaners. For all dem and dem-leaning adults, the numbers are:

Joe Lieberman 20
John Kerry 16
Dick Gephardt 14
Howard Dean 10
John Edwards 6
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5
Bob Graham 5
Dennis Kucinich 2
Other *
No One 3
No Opinion 13

The moe is 5% with a sample of 444.

Dean's number is potentially statistically significant (depends on rounding off), as he was polling as low as 5% in May. None of the others have gained or lost significantly according to the table of gallup results on usatoday. So where is Dean's support coming from? What a funny artefact this is.

Is there a statistician in the house? Would larger samples clarify things, or is this kind of thing to be expected with so many options to choose from? An moe under 3% could allow us to draw a few more conclusions, but there would still be a lot of uncertainty, eh?

btw, the question asked was:

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun.

There's no indication that they rotated the order.

AN MoE under 3 percent does not exist.

But I have takem all the course that were available in experimental design and statistical inference 3 of them) at my undergrad university, and any poll with less than a sampling of 50,000 pieces of data will be needed to approach 3 percent. Or a lot of cross referenced questions...

I load every poll and the questions asked, into my Stata software, and look for potentials.

I used to do this as part of my job. I used to have to take all of the data from my govenment job, service pattern, service areas,population growth, and so on, and then make statistical projections for future use in order to ask for money for the following years. While my statistical programs were always correct to within three percent. Ny personal judgements after looking at the data, and ten thinking about the consequences basing it on my personal experience, wy personal adjustments to the figures were never off by more than one half of one percent. Statistical Data is a guideline to which way the wind blows. It takes somone who knows how to handle sails and ridder well in order to bring a boat into the slip.

Bottom line is that the more polls there are, the more accurate they wil be, so if you have two polls witrh Dean in third place, and one with him up front, likelihood is that the two with him in third place are more valid than the one.


I just looked at the U.S.A. poll and the results are interesting, but you notice the Beta is 5 percent (95% percent reliability), and then you get your three percent marging of error. Which is saying they are 95 percent sure, that this test has a three percent margin of error. This is the most accurate poll I have seen do far, but what most of the other polls are not telling you when they give you a margin of error of 4.5 percent is that the relaibility is always 95 percent. Depending on test design,you need anyplace from 10,000, to more than 50,000 samples to get a reliability of 967 percent(beat of 3 percent).

I remember having to design a test to measure p wave activity in the brain (indicated paying attention to something) as a research assistant for an experimental psychologist. The test involved random red and green lights blinking at untimed intervals and the person wouldhave to press one of two different buttons whetther the light was green or red.
Intesresting study. No human can pay attention to anything dull and repetative for more than 25 minutes, and even if you snap them back to attention, the attention span then drops off rapidly after the first round, to a fall off after just five minute. It was s study to recommend safety procedures for people doing routine, mindless, asselmbly line work in whick appendages are prone to be lost, so I hope the study saved a few fingers.

Anyway, I have been a statistical and experimental design nut for years.

This poll is rather interesting. Actually, the most accurate I have seen for the campaign so far.

DLC

Joe Lieberman 20
John Kerry 16
Dick Gephardt 14
John Edwards 6
Bob Graham 5
Dennis Kucinich 2

63 percent support for DLC based candidates


.


NON DLC
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5
Howard Dean 10

21 percent for NON DLC Candidates



OTHER

No One 3
No Opinion 13

16 percent no opinion or no one.

The moe is 5% with a sample of 444


It is obvious that the American public, regardless of Dean unrelenting attack on the DLC and the its candidates

That means if Sharpton and Moseley Braun QUIT, and ALL of their supporters decide that Dean is the man, and all others also do the same, all Dean can take of the the total vote is 37 percent.

That is if EVERYONE turns their support to Dean.

That is not likely.

Most of the current indy media stuff that is showing up about Deans judicial nominees and other records as governor, is being slipped to the indy media from DLC sources, Thats a given. The news is coming slowly over the internet now articles about centrists being asked not to support Dean by the DLC.

More of it is coming out in the indy media now. One month before the campaigning starts hard and heavy after the summer break of Congress.

In late September, expect all this to hit the national media, and start coming fast.

Mosely Braun is solidly behind the DLC regardless of the fact she no longer holds office. She and Kerry are close, close political allies. That leaves Sharpton. AL wil lcut his deals with whoever he thinks CAN win. And hold the democratic party firmly together.

ONe stragegy the DLC has to hold to in order for Dean to not get the nomination which is their desire, is to advise ALL nine candidates to stay in the race. The other is a little less sure, but to agree that if they drop out, to vocally and actrively support another DLC candidate.

With polls like this, at this late date before the primaries begin, the DLC based candidates hold the field with the most total delegates. If it comes down to no one candidates getting enough to win, the party decides, and again, the DLC candidates hold hold the majority of votes.

For all of Deans anti-dlc attacks. DLC cnadidates hold a LARGE majority compared to Dean. Deans supporters have some vague idea that if other candidates drop out, all their support will come running to Dean. Not likely, they support DLC candidates, because they like the DLC platform, and the experience of ther DLC candidates.

Lets see if Edwards and Grahams supporters come running to Dean after Deans attacks on their candidates. Not likely.
Certainly not Liebermans supporters.

Or Kerrys if Kerry decides to quit. Certainly Graham and Edwards would throw their support to Kerry, due to Deans attacks on all three of them. Which would suddenly place Kerry at the head of the pack nationally.

So breaking down polls into pro-dlc and anti-dlc voters, the picture of the campaign becomes very clear.

To present such a clear picture, you need to distort a few realities.

The DLC leadership clearly favors Lieberman, likes Edwards, and has no problems that I know of with Graham. At this time I would only count votes for these three as being unambiguously DLC votes. 31%, using your numbers.

Kucinich and Gephardt are both to the left of the DLC on issues of international trade, labor rights, and economic policy generally. Kucinich is way to the left of the DLC on a number of other issues, most notably war and peace. I'd say Gephardt is more likely than Kucinich to throw their support behind a DLC candidate. Depends on who that would be, I reckon, but in any case Gephardt looks like he'll stick around for a while. 14% likely to go with DLC, 2% not so clear

The DLC may be warming up to Kerry, but Kerry is more progressive on some issues. And since he has been competing with Dean for some of the same voters, it's not certain that his 16% would fall in line with another DLC candidate.

DLC hates Sharpton. I wouldn't count on that 5% just yet. I wouldn't expect both him and Moseley Braun to drop out, as one leaving will give the other a healthy boost in African American supporters.

Braun would be more likely to support the DLC favorite, if it meant beating Bush. If it's Kerry vs. Lieberman, I'd expect Kerry to be favored, but I would not count that as vindication or support for the DLC. 6% unsure.

The DLC is being challenged. They can meet that challenge by getting fully behind Kerry, but that would mean a substantial change in their positions. They'd have to put up with a guy who's willing to rake Bush over the coals on his foreign policy disasters and military adventurism. I'm not sure that they're quite ready to do that, because there are some right hawkish people over there, not too keen to admit defeat. Or they can get in line behind Gephardt, but again, that would represent a compromise of some of their core positions.

* * *

The only clear trend here is Dean gaining votes.

* * *

Did you quite answer my question on stats? With say 10 options and a moe of say 3.2%, what's the probablity of a significant shift in only one option?

* * *

Your's is a fascinating perspective. You should post a new thread on it.

Its the same mouthful of moutwash swishing to the other side!

The DLC is guilty and stupid, but the other side, the Deanies are being just as silly in their attacks of the DLC.

Two wrongs to NOT make a right!

The "true" DLC rank and file local elected officials are some of the most progressive in the nation and they dont give a rats ass what Al From thinks or Bruce Reed.

They seek new ways of accomplishing old problems.


Simple.

The DLC has always backed Kerry and prasied his economic plan for a new approach to an old problem. We need investment economics not stimulation economics (IE: tax and spend)

you can see that the order in which they're listed is about equal to name recognition.

Questions and names on gallops are rotated. They liste them from highest to lowest.

GAllop and Harris are considered the two, best, most reliable and random of polls in the nation. THey do not ask the names in theorder that they are listed, but rotate them for each person polled.

Though Dean is a 28 percent and Kerry at 25 percent still holds Kerry as the leader (4.9 percent MoE)

Vaulted into the top tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls by his tough, anti-war rhetoric, Howard Dean still can't convince New Hampshire voters he can beat President Bush, a new Boston Sunday Herald poll shows.


Democratic primary voters in the Herald poll put Dean, the former Vermont governor, and U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in a deadlocked race for the first-in-the-nation primary - set for six months from today.

Voters say Kerry, boosted by strong foreign-policy credentials, is far better equipped to reclaim the White House, the poll shows.

``Although the Dean message is a popular one, Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

Forty-four percent of voters say Kerry is more electable than Dean - only 17 percent say Dean has a better shot against Bush, the poll found

http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/poll07272003.htm

Gallop is the best pollster that the news agencies have that actually has decent assumptions regarding the actual makeup of the American Voting public and the weights it puts on each of the voting blocks and demographics

Polls as the most accurate.
They have been doing this for the longest amount of time.

But even then, you have to look at the ENTIRE poll results, and not just select the one portion that places one candidate at 13 percent , or ten percent. That is like the old story of the ten blind men all feeling a different part of an elephant and all thinking they are touching a different animal.

The latest National Gallops look likethis for the main data:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 25-27, 2003. N=384 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.
.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

7/25-27/03
%
Joe Lieberman 21
Dick Gephardt 16
John Kerry 15
Howard Dean 11
John Edwards 6
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 2
Other -
No one 2
No opinion 12





Looking at this data, you get those who support DLC ideological candidates with 64 percent of the vote of the democratic voters.

Joe Lieberman 21
Dick Gephardt 16
John Kerry 15
John Edwards 6
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 2


Howard Dean 11
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5

22 perecnt for non DLC members.

And 14 percent uncomitted:

This is significant in that withethe DLC recently nodding to Kerry, and discussing taking over the campaign for the good of the party asn well as making certain theat Bush is beaten, that Deans anti-DLC screed is not attracting large numbers of voters and that the DLC's philosophy and policies of the last tweny years still attact a large majority of voters.

Now looking at all of the polling report polls for the month of July, a clear picture begins to emerge.

$ top candidates, with varying position at the top levels.

Latest poll places Kerry at the top of the pack


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). July 26-28, 2003. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary.
.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote: ?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?"

7/03 5/03 4/03 1/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 25 21 19 25
John Kerry 14 17 13 14
Howard Dean 12 3 3 3
Richard Gephardt 11 16 14 17
Carol Moseley Braun 5 4 4 n/a
John Edwards 4 5 4 7
Bob Graham 4 4 3 6
Al Sharpton 3 2 2 2
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 n/a n/a
None (vol.) 7 6 14 5
Other (vol.) - 1 1 1
Not sure 14 21 23 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 25-27, 2003. N=384 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.
.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

7/25-27/03
%
Joe Lieberman 21
Dick Gephardt 16
John Kerry 15
Howard Dean 11
John Edwards 6
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 2
Other -
No one 2
No opinion 12
.

6/12-18/03 5/30 -
6/1/03 4/22-23/03 3/14-15/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 21 20 22 15
Dick Gephardt 17 14 16 20
John Kerry 13 17 18 16
Bob Graham 7 4 5 4
Howard Dean 7 5 6 5
John Edwards 6 6 8 6
Al Sharpton 6 7 3 5
Carol Moseley Braun 5 4 4 8
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 3 3
Other 1 1 1 1
No one 5 5 5 3
No opinion 11 15 9 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. July 22-24, 2003. N=266 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.5.

.

"It is early, but if you had to choose today, which ONE of the following eight candidates would you be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president? . . ."

7/03 5/03 4/03 2/03
% % % %
John Kerry 20 15 19 18
Joe Lieberman 14 18 14 18
Richard Gephardt 14 14 14 15
Howard Dean 12 7 6 4
John Edwards 6 9 10 10
Carol Moseley Braun 3 3 4 3
Bob Graham 3 8 6 5
Al Sharpton 3 5 4 5
Hillary Rodham Clinton (vol.) 2 3 1 2
Other/None/Not sure 23 18 22 20
.

Asked of those who made a choice and did not volunteer Hillary Rodham Clinton: "If New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic nomination for president, would you continue to support or would you prefer to support Hillary Rodham Clinton?"
Asked of those who did not have an initial preference: "If New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic nomination for president, would she be your first choice for the nomination?"

Recalculated preference:

7/03 5/03 4/03 2/03
% % % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 40 38 41 40
John Kerry 11 10 13 11
Howard Dean 9 4 3 2
Richard Gephardt 8 8 7 7
Joe Lieberman 7 10 6 11
John Edwards 2 6 6 6
Bob Graham 1 5 4 2
Carol Moseley Braun 1 1 1 2
Al Sharpton - 2 2 2
Other/None/Not sure 21 16 17 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Quinnipiac University Poll. July 17-22, 2003. N=372 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.1.

.

"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ."

7/17-22/03 6/4-9/03 2/26-
3/3/03 1/29-
2/3/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 21 22 21 27
Dick Gephardt 16 17 17 16
John Kerry 13 15 12 18
Howard Dean 10 5 4 3
Al Sharpton 6 5 5 6
John Edwards 4 5 8 14
Carol Moseley Braun 4 4 7 n/a
Bob Graham 3 6 6 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 2 n/a
Don't know 21 21 18 16
.

"Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? . . ."

7/17-22/03 6/4-9/03 2/26-
3/3/03 1/29-
2/3/03
% % % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 48 40 37 42
Joe Lieberman 11 16 12 15
John Kerry 7 8 8 11
Dick Gephardt 7 10 13 11
Howard Dean 4 3 3 3
John Edwards 3 2 4 7
Bob Graham 3 4 4 n/a
Carol Moseley Braun 2 1 3 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 3 n/a
Al Sharpton 1 1 2 2
Don't know 12 12 11 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. July 16-17, 2003. N=400 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.

.

"Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ."

7/16-17/03 5/21-22/03 2/19-20/03 1/15-16/03
% % % %
Joseph Lieberman 16 13 16 21
John Kerry 14 14 8 11
Dick Gephardt 12 13 13 10
Howard Dean 10 4 3 3
John Edwards 6 7 7 12
Al Sharpton 5 8 7 2
Bob Graham 4 5 3 3
Carol Moseley Braun 4 3 4 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 3 2 2 n/a
Other 3 1 7 11
Not sure 23 30 30 27
.

Current results, with leaners:
%
Joseph Lieberman 18
John Kerry 15
Dick Gephardt 13
Howard Dean 10
John Edwards 7
Al Sharpton 5
Carol Moseley Braun 5
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 3
Other 3
Not sure 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Zogby America Poll. July 16-17, 2003. N=504 likely Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.4.
.

"If the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"
7/16-17/03 3/5-7/03 1/24-26/03
% % %
Dick Gephardt 12 11 9
Howard Dean 12 4 2
Joe Lieberman 12 18 21
John Kerry 9 9 10
Al Sharpton 4 4 6
John Edwards 3 4 7
Carol Moseley Braun 2 1 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 n/a
Bob Graham 1 1 1
Other 6 7 5
Undecided 39 37 33
Gary Hart n/a 3 6
Wesley Clark n/a - -

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. July 10-11, 2003. N=376 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in the next election. After I read all their names, tell me which ONE you would MOST like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ." Names rotated

7/03 1/03
% %
Dick Gephardt 14 13
Joe Lieberman 13 22
Howard Dean 12 4
John Kerry 10 13
Bob Graham 7 5
Al Sharpton 6 6
John Edwards 6 14
Carol Moseley Braun 3 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 n/a
Other (vol.) 1 1
None (vol.) 3 4
Don't know 23 13
Gary Hart n/a 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 9-10, 2003. N=443 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. MoE ± 4.5. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.
.

"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?" Names rotated

7/03 4/03 .

% % .

Joseph Lieberman 13 29
John Kerry 12 14
Richard Gephardt 10 19
Howard Dean 8 3
John Edwards 6 4
Al Sharpton 6 3
Carol Moseley Braun 4 6
Bob Graham 3 3
Dennis Kucinich 2 2
Other (vol.) 2 1
None (vol.) 13 1
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 7 0
No opinion 16 14



Interesting positioning, but most of the polls place the national DLC candididates at the top, ahead of Dean. In almost all of the poll, Dean is at trhe bottom of the gans of Four, witrh Kerry within the statistical MoE with the top two cnadidates, but in most cass, Dean is outside the MoE of the top two candidates, and Kerry is within the MoE for being considered equals with Dean.

Most interesting is the LATEST poll...

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll

Which now places Kerry at the top of the pack far above Dean, with Dean below the other candidates, and a good deal outside of the margins of error.

nt

Very few undecided left in most polls. If you add the undecided. Dean cannot gain a plurality, and since the DLC has decided to actually run and in the end, likely decide to decide WHO will get the momination based on total votes fo the DLC platform. They will decide against Dean, that is obvious. They have already noted an inclination towards Kerry, and can decide to nominate by arranging for the delegated for DLC supporting candidates to be given to one candidate, thus nowcking Dean completely out of the race. THis is the likely course. At this point it is unlikely that Dean will get more than 25 percent of the delgates, the other 75 percent going to the DLC, and its choice.

You are a positive thinker (or negative where Dean is concerned!) No logic or fact gets you down.

Did you actually read the article on the other thread you posted?

"American Research Group pegged undecided voters at 30 percent late last month, up from 23 percent in June. Franklin Pierce College's latest count shows undecideds at 37 percent, up from 31 percent in May. Undecided voters made up 30 percent of those polled by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center last month, down from the spring but up from the 19 percent last winter. "

article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-2987687,00.html
thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=12723&mesg_id=12723


According to the Ipsos/Reid poll you posted, 23% of possible voters are undecided, ahead of Kerry who is on first place. (to be fair, on the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll only 14% are undecided, although "not sure" is still on second place)

This is obviously not "very few undecided voters", and taking into account that several candidates are likely to drop out before the first primaries, I think most candidates, including Dean, have enough room to move up.

Weren't they backing Lieberman a short time ago (when he was the front-runner)? Now they're backing Kerry (the disputed front-runner)?

Sounds suspiciously like the DLC just backs the front-runner...since Kerry was their second choice, what makes you believe there won't be a third (or fourth, etc.)?

if support for the other candidates keeps falling like it has been.

I find the faith in polls interesting...but I understand it. The level of knowledge most people posses about statistical research is minimal at best...and considering that 80% of my field (political science) don't even understand the statistical techniques they are using (thanks in part to advanced computer software packages like stata and spss, thank god for R...), it is not surprising that we don't do a good job of explaining polls.

Polls where people are allowed to self select are, as we all known, nonsense...and it is pointless to even use them as a standard. But alleged scientific polls can also be nonsense due to the manner in which the sample was selected, the size of the sample and the sampling distribution selected to represent the population. Since most researchers use what is called the classic linear regression model, and since most things in life rarely ever adopt a linear relationship, most statistical models are poor predictors of actual events.

Polls conducted under conditions where the respondent are not very informed about what it is they are being asked are doing nothing more then responding to name recognition. The worst type of polling that enforces this behavior is when the pollster offers them a list from which to choose. In order to limit such behavior, any poll conducted at this point in the game should offer no PROMPTS that could trigger this type of behavior.

Also, just because a poll has results does not mean they are in fact significant. MOE only means how wrong we are willing to be and getting a result thatoffers us an obtained stat that passes is a long way from being able to infer the findings of your sample to the population from which it was drawn...you must look for hypothesis tests that confirm that we can make such a statement based upon such a test...so look for gamma or pierson's r hypothesis tests when examining these polls.

Conducting a test of registered democrats can not be generalized to anything but registered democrats. So if, for example, you want to see how well a candidate is doing against Bush, this sample gives you nothing! Also, using a poll that is national (aggregate) to make inferences about individual primary states (individual) is a nono!!!

Polls conducted this early on are nothing more then name recognition, and candidates who are increasing in the polls are becoming more recognized, that is all....here would be my three question poll:

1) Would you please name all the democratic candidates running for office. (This would be able to distinguish between the informed and uninformed respondents while simultaneaously eliminating people who are selecting from a list the name they recognize the most).

2) Add undecided to the list you just named and of the people on the list, who would you vote for in your state's democratic primary if it were held today? (The more informed the voter is the less likely this answer is going to be name recognition).

3) What issue(s) is(are) the most important in determining your selection for the democratic nomination? Feel free to list as many as you think important. (This would allow for an informed response that could allow for the cross connection of issues that reaches the larges number of democrats...)

there you have it...as promised Nick...your stats update on every polling thread you post...

:evilgrin: