A Primary Hypothetical

Gep edges out Dean in Iowa and Kerry is a strong third
(say: 35, 31, 25)

This comes as a huge blow to the Dean campaign who insiders had bet had this thing wrapped up. Kerry gets a bounce because two months before everyone had written him off for good. The Iowa results give Gep a bounce and hurt Dean going into NH. However, since both Dean and Kerry are running so far ahead of the rest of the pack in NH, the effect is that Kerry for the first time pulls ahead of Dean and wins an incredibly close primary vote.

To those Dean supporters that brush this scenario aside I'd make two points.
1)Gep will throw everything into Iowa - and I mean everything. This is a guy who has spent his life in politics, has run and won in Iowa and is leading in recent polls.
2) Kerry will throw everything - and I mean everything, including Jeanne Shaheen and the entire Massachusetts wing of the Democratic Party, plus a good chunk of Ketchup money into NH. Despite Kerry's campaign problems, to most people he seems like a natural choice to go up against Bush and they've been confused that he hasn't caught on.

I won't try to guess on what would happen after this except that you could pretty much kiss Dean goodbye. Quite simply, this has to be the logic both Kerry and Gep are using to run their campaigns. This is why you've seen Gep dissapear from NH and Kerry still concentrating on IA and NH, but ONLY those two.

To be honest, Dean either loses both or wins both. I can't quite imagine him losing Iowa and beating Kerry in NH. You've got to assume NH is a close race by then, you've just got to.

1) Pruner
2) Eloriel

;-)

*Wonk*!!!! :bounce: :freak:

:)

Get yourself to Iowa -- Dean apparently needs you there!

:)

I'm heading to New Hampshire in January.

of a Gep win) with a win for Dean in New Hampshire.

Oh, by the way, 2nd place in Iowa would NOT be a "huge blow" to the Dean campaign. Number two to Gephardt in Iowa is a victory. Gep, not Dean, is expected to take Iowa. A 2nd place finish by Dean will get him some BIG press. A top-two finish in New Hampshire is pretty much assumed. I think Dean will win it. The press from the Iowa Caucus/NH Primary should help him in the states he's within a few points of the lead in.

After all the free media and hype there are going to be some pretty high expectations come elections day for Dean and winning Iowa will be number one. Gep was expected to take it, but it's been clear that Dean was edging ahead through September and October but now Gep has come back slightly. Gep will get a ton of press and it will be his moment to shine, beating off the much better financed and better organized Dean campaign. This will inevitably hurt Dean. Even his supporters can admit that. If Gep wins in Iowa, the story will be that he singlehandly stopped the Dean campaign and saved us from 4 more years of Bush.

That's funny.

But remember that it's not winner-take-all, and Dean gains from a close second finish in IA. Yes expectations will be high but realistic, and some of those expectations will be based on polling in January.

It was interesting that in the latest IA poll that shows Gep ahead, the Dean supporters had a wide margin when asked if they would definitely attend the caucus. Dean also had a nearly 75% favorability rating. So I'm not too worried about Iowa. I'll be there in January!

a Gephardt state. Dean will get big press if he wins it...good press for a #2 finish. If Gep doesn't take Iowa, he's basically done.

If Gephardt does win Iowa, it will give his campaign slightly longer legs, but he'll have to continue to prove himself. Regardless, I doubt you'll see many (if any) stories claiming that Gephardt stopping Dean is "saving us from 4 more years of Bush".

"Gep is our savior!"

Fully 36% of caucus attendees will be from unions--most not from AFSCME or SEIU and Gep has endorsements from most of the others. 50% of attendees will be elderly, many of whom supported him in '88. He will be the favorite and thus must win.

That said, I think Dean may win. Union members I've talked to are soft on Gep and pro-Dean And I'm in Iowa). They don't agree with the national committees that endorsed and they want a winner--now many at DU think Dean is not a winner, but these guys disagree.

My prediction: Gep 35 (due to switchers that otherwise wouldn't have counted), Dean 27, Kerry 20. Kerry will claim a victory but it won't be enough of a bump for NH. Gep will be done because no one will switch to him from NH or SC or the Super Tues. states.

It will be decide at the convention...look for the post about the amount of delegates you need to win. Yes Geppie will be behind the eight-ball(+plus Kunnich, Braun, Sharpton and Lieberman) if they don't have good numbers by Super-Tuesday.

A Gephardt win there will hardly be looked at as an upset, except by some of the other candidates, perhaps.

To a lesser extent, Kerry was supposed to win in next door NH. Granted, if that race fails to tighten before then, a Kerry win would be an astounding upset - but that really depends on how it shapes up over the next 10 weeks.

The former Governor of Vermont, still an unknown nationally, will impress virtually everyone (outside of DU) if he finishes first OR second either place. The money would continue to pour in an he will be set to ride it out to the convention.

Conversely, I'd have to say if Kerry loses NH or if Gephardt loses IA, they are probably finished. They aren't exactly smokin' now - and losing primaries they were expecting to win would be devastating. Their only hope at that point would be a brokered convention, which could signal the beginning of the end of the party - at least as we know it.

While I'm at it, let me assert that the notion of Dean standing in the way of defeating Bush shows a stunning lack of understanding of today's political climate. To even assume that anyone, other than the most partisan voters, would choose any current member of the Congress of the United States as an alternative to Bush is laughable. To the casual observer, and to most independent-minded people, Congress is part of the problem and all who serve there are painted (fairly or not) with the unenviable brush of "Washington Insider". Whether leading the legislative fight against Bush, or enabling his failed policies, running for President from the halls of the Capitol is not the recipe for victory.

if he gets 4th place in SC behind Edwards, Clark and Gephardt that would be a major blow( and it would be extremely bad for him to be 5th behind Lieberman).

will go a long way in ALL of the following primaries. I'd like to see him put more time in in S.C., but Iowa and NH have to be the focus right now, I think.

Will a finish in SC matter if those electoral votes are going to Bush? The next election will be about electoral votes and I don't think ANY dem will waste money in SC.

How do you expect the dems to win the election!!!!
A good showing in SC can open the south back up for the full Democratic party.

elsewhere this time. I think they will have to spend it in places that could go wither way like IA, AZ, NM, NH, etc. We must get back to the south but 04 will not allow it.

The Democratic candidates should vest time, money, energy, and manpower to win some of the south back this time around. If not in '08, will be twice as hard.

Don't do the ostrich head in the sand routine on this subject. If so... welcome to the new century as the BUSH EMPIRE HAS REDEFINED THE USA.

It says Dean leads in Iowa among DEFINITE caucus goers. So I may have to revise my prediction in this thread. I'll try to find the numbers. They were from a Des Moines Register survey.

Dean supporters were twice as likely to be 'firm' in their preference, and almost twice as firm in their decision to attend, i.e., won't look out at the snowy, Iowa night and say "I think I'll do my nails and watch TV, instead.". :)

Dean has more committed supporters in Iowa who will trudge through the snow to vote for him. Gebhart just has a lot of establishment support that won't reach as far as Dean's committed voters on primary day.

Same with Dean, but Geppie has home field advantage. Like Dean has over Geppie in NH.

Dean is NOT counting Iowa as a done deal, not sure where you are getting that info. Gep has loyal followers there. Talked to a staffer the other day who said she routinely meets people who claim to be supporting "that nice man from Missouri" -- they can't grab Gep's name out of the air, but they like him because he's been campaigning there forever.

Dean only needs to be a close second to Gep in IA, which he seems to be. This will keep him solid in NH, where he will beat Kerry. This is not a prediction, just a guess. Anything could happen.

Meanwhile, Dean just picked up endorsements from the biggest unions in -- guess where? -- IA and NH.

I'd bet anyone that if Dean loses Iowa it's seen as a blow. Gephardt will be called the 'stop-Dean, save us from 4 more years' candidate.

They love you when you've got no expectation to perform, like with Dean many months ago. They repeatedly referred to him as a 'long-shot' candidate. But now, with all the high expectations, the pressure is going to be on for him to win early and win big, if not, LOOK OUT!

I love this one.

No longer sinking, not imploding, but damn those high expectations are going to KILL him! LOL.

Of course the pressure will be on, that's just part of being a front-runner in a crowded field. I'll take this position any day. :)

anyone who thinks Gehardt has a chance against Bush is clueless. Personality and charisma are going to factor into it and Gep is sorely lacking. He is the least charismatic of all the candidates.

Iowa: flip a coin. Really. And even if Gep does win, he has nowhere else to go, and no money left.
New Hampshire: Dean wins. Kerry and Clark fighting for second (it looks like Kerry's really falling-apart).
South Carolina: Clark, then Edwards, then Lieberman & Dean fighting for 3rd.

With Iowa, Gep drops-out.
With New Hampshire, Kerry drops-out.
With South Carolina, Edwards drops-out.

It then essentially becomes a Dean-versus-Clark race.
At that point, we flip another coin. It's simply too far away to see from here.

wins IA, what does he do? He puts everything he has into it, and then has what to run in the other states?

Same for Kerry. He campiagns his ass off in NH and then does what?
And I thought Kerry was not allowed to use his wife's "ketchup" money in the campaign.

Then they head on to some of the other primaries other than South Carolina (Delaware, possibly Midwestern primaries, and the West Coast). IF this were to occur (a big if, since Dean is the frontrunner and is bound to pick up one of these two states), there will be a third major candidate (the person who picks up South Carolina and Oklahoma) and it will be a race between those three. Otherwise, if Dean wins either Iowa or New Hampshire, it will be Dean v. South Carolina's victor.

Gep will win Iowa and he is planning on staying in for the long haul. He learned from '88 and won't run out of money this time. The campaign absolutely feels that the calendar favors Gep after NH. I think everyone is writing him off way to early.

and it has been endless discussed here, Kerry can not spend any of Heinz' money on his campaign. Don't beleive me ask his own campaign's lawyers.

If Dean is close in Iowa, and I think he will be, it will be counted as a win.

it is a closely fought campaign there all the way between Gep and Dean. I think Dean would be very happy with such a narrow loss as you speculate--and probably the press could interpet such a narrow loss as a win for Dean since it is in Gep's backyard and in a state he has worked since '88.

I think it would be unwise for both candidates to throw all they have into one state. Then what? One state does not a winner make. But let's assume your wishful thinking plays out and Dean loses both. Clinton also lost both Iowa and NH and went on to win the nomination. Admittedly, Dean would be hurt, but he would survive and go on.

Logic dictates that they HAVE to throw everything into those states.

the fight is far from over.....

The media will prop up Dean.

both Gep and Kerry throw the kitchen sinks into the two states - hell, i can even see Kerry supporters in Iowa who dont reach 15% station size supporting Gep to create doubt about Dean.

Ok. Will it matter? After these 2 events take place - Dean will have more delegates than anyone else. That's what he'll be saying as the campaign moves on - and he'll AVOID SC to focus on AZ and other places he's more likely to pick up more delegates - using delegate count to try to reaffirm his status as front runner.

That week is a nightmare for the dems... as all the press focuses on how the Dems cant field a candidate who resonates with the american people etc etc... lots of facetime for Jeff Greenfield and Bill Schneider on CNN.

By the end of Feb 3rd, Clark will have risen up into the role of the leader of the Not-Dean candidates - and depending on Gore's endorsement may pull right up near Dean's total, but there will still be a pack of them, with Gep right there at the top because of Missouri. Dean will have to spend a lot of money defending himself as the lesser not-deans fight for airtime. Edwards is probably out (he seems pretty rational). Kerry may or may not be out by then - depends on how much money he has and who his campaign manager is at that point. There's a month of marginal news - any wins on the 7th offset by losses on the 10th...

And for a month we watch a whole SLEW of candidates fighting it out in a long hard slog. Ultimately, i think Kerry and Gep drop after Mar 2nd (if they havent before - if Gep does poorly in Mich expect him to go), but i think Dean/Clark are still pretty even until the Mar 9th when Clark makes a big push.

I still think we could be trying to figure out who to run in Boston.