Not Optimistic about '04. Clark might even lose

(Oopsies, edited to fix link)

In this thread, I made my Dean prediction (a Bush "re" election):

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=83990

I don't really stand by these predictions, per se. They're just my best guess. As a Southerner and a westerner, I don't see Howard Dean translating into a guy my neighbors will support.

I think Wesley Clark stands a better chance of punching a hole in the Bush machine. My useless crystal ball sez still a squeaker for the BFEE:

Clark: 268
* the Pacific NW, California, & Hawaii
* the "peel-off" states of New Mexico & Arkansas
* All of New England (tho' NH is iffy) and NY, Penn, & NJ
* WV, Maryland, Delaware, & DC
* the upper Great Lake states (Mich, Minn, Wisc, Ill; but not Ohio or Indiana)

Bush: 270
* the core South, including Florida (BBV), and border south's Kentucky
* all the midwest, interior west, and Gulf coast.


Probable popular vote is 48%-48%-3% plus odds and ends to the little guys. A Clark nomination will be a boost to the Greens.

That said, it's not hopeless. There are a number of Republican "peel off" states that can swing it: Nevada, Iowa, possibly Tennessee. Despite the current polls, I just don't see Arizona as a plausible pick up. Florida will be controlled, although an electoral coup there is possible. Ohio is do-able, but may require more resources than the DNC is willing to commit.

Clark's secret strength will be in his ability to put the South almost in play, requiring the Republicans to devote time and money down here, despite the inevitable. Bush's secret strength is that he has so much money he won't have to worry about shepherding resources or choosing his battles. He can be everywhere.

This will be ugly folks and the count is in their favor, so far. I thnk it's reasonable to expect them to move heaven and earth to neutralize their vulnerabilities ("start" an Iraq pull-out, work the numbers on the economy, and maybe show case a couple of corporate-Wall Street corruption trials) by October. Plus they may already have an October surprise up their sleeves... bin Ladin or Saddam could still show up dead (don't expect either to be taken alive, of course).

these fools can do no wrong in the eyes of our favorite tv news , we have alot of work to do to get to the votes and minds of those who do care about america the beatiful and bring her back to the days of peace and goodness for everyone who are proud to live there lifes for the bettering of man kind

The REAL statesmen get ignored, or spun into irrelevancy.

i think Clark can actually take some southern states. Ark, Tenn, maybe La. I think Ohio is certainly in play due to manufacturing job losses. The steel mess is not helping Bush* there.

My parents are in Az - and they see massive discontent amongst their pub friends (mostly centered around the prospect of voting for Clark I might add) - and Nevada is awful pissed about the whole nuclear dumping ground issue.

I think most of your suppostion holds if it isnt Clark, but with Clark I think you're looking at +40, which gives him enough of a mandate to get something done.

be embarrassed by the state I live in. Still can't believe TN went for Chimpy instead of our "own son" Al!

ABB at the end of the day...

But we must all push our candidates now, and then back the candidate

For the record I like dean, have a soft spot for Kucinich, and
starting to like clark more and more

Dean/Clark or the reverse is a winable ticket. Both of these men appeal to such a cross section of voters. Dean with the techie crowd looking for social change, Clark with the older and more national security oriented. I really feel this is the ONLY ticket that can get that "sumbitch" out of our White House. Dean/Clark '04!!

Bush will win in 04.

I don't know by how much, nor do I care. Chimpy has already won because the voting machines are already rigged.

I think Edwards could win Miss, TN, NC and Arkansas, by the way.

would lose Mississippi.

And he would win Florida and Missouri.

Would Dean win Arkansas?

On edit: Would he win Florida and Missouri?

I think that we will lose the 2004 election only if Clinton cannot campaign and carry AK for the dem ticket, and Gore cannot carry TN. If Clinton / Gore campaign in their states for the 2004 Dem ticket, and the Dem ticket wins AK and TN, then we should defeat Bush.
Graham might be able to pull Florida blue.
Arnold might get kicked by California voters as his state votes Dem.

9-11-01 has altered America.

If AK and TN can't be carried, then I think 2004 will be a hard win. My money would be on a Dean / Graham ticket, with everything being dumped into Florida. Howard Dean is the best campaigner in the race.

I feel like Ohio is a very strong possibility as well as Arizona. I don't think that's too crazy...

:dem:

Though Clark pulling out of Iowa was a bad idea, I think that he'll be able to win the state in the general election. Also, recent polls indicate that Arizona could be a possibility. I feel that we can be very competitive in Arizona in 2004. They just elected a Democratic governor, and if we are competitive in the state, AZ-1 could fall into our hands. If a Democratic victory occurs there in 2004 (on the heel's of Napolitano's win), Democrats may consider running a viable candidate against Jon Kyl.

Arizona may be close, but McCain will be out campaigning for Bush--bank on it. It helps him too much not to push for "re"election, whether Bush wins or loses. It's the only way to position himself as the anti-Jeb for 08. I just can't see McCain country going for a Democrat. There are lots of Western states with Dem governors, that just won't for us (except when Ross Perot is splitting the loon vote).

We always call Ohio a swing state and it always goes Republican in two-way races. It'll be a battleground, but this is the heart of "fear Osama and believe the Iraq connection lie" country. I think the "Bible belt" vote is much stronger there than we usually think. We see Ohio and think Youngstown, but the reality of Ohio is all them suburbs.

We've also not seen the Bush fear and smear machine kick in. It'll eat up an Edwards, a Dean, or a Kucinich. Clark has some insulation, but hisAl Gore had a reputation as a tough campaigner and Rove had Gore for brunch. The smearing worked really well in Ohio, West Virginia, and the South. And this year they'll have more tools being in the White House and have the FBI at their disposal.

I may be wrong about Iowa, but I don't see Dean or Clark energizing the base there the way Gephardt or Kucinich would (but Kucinich wouldn't be able to hold the center, which is death in the midwest). The next best "hope" is the economy staying bad, which is a pretty crappy hope. But all indications are that there will be enough employment around next year to cover up the under-employment problem.

I'm sounding pessimistic, but I'm not despairing. I think we can win, but it's gonna take a lot of work, a lot of talking, a lot of showing up, and a lot less psychological projection that the country is tired of Bush. He's gotten to White House and gotten 400 Americans and 15,000 Iraqis needlessly killed by being underestimated. We can't afford to do that again.

These states should not be considered as going for Bush. Thus a victory WITHOUT ANY SOUTHERN STATES.

I also believe AZ may go Dem.

Bush will be a strong contender in both states. Count them leaning toward Bush. I wish I was wrong. But I'm not.

what can we do to see that we do not have four more years of hell?

Everyone has down days. Let's keep on fighting. That's ALL that I know to do.

and while it's gonna be a squeeker I think we can tak it.