My worries about '04

Ok... Here are my worries about the election in '04. After looking at Edwards' map on his website, I've decided that discounting Florida, we need NH,WV and one more state to win this thing. That could be AZ, AK, or even MO. My fear is that someone like Dean would not be able to win some of these more moderate states. Not because of the civil union's issue, but because people in those states don't like voting for those left-wingers from New England. I know many people in WV who usually vote democratic yet remain wary of Dean. Many like Clark a lot more. I am a Dean person myself, but I like Clark's military stance...and that will win him many more votes in the South, considering he can shove it in Bush's face. Especially since Bush will have to burn money in states he thought he could take for granted.

If Dean is the nominee, I think we need to go for AZ and FL because I see no chance in getting WV or AK. That said, if Dean wins and picks up Clark this could all be very very different. I do not see Clark picking up Dean however.

If Dean wins NH, and IA, I think Clark could still be the nominee by picking up the southern states and placing 2nd and third in the other Dean pickups. We'll see. Either way, this Deanie will be working his ass off no matter what. TIme to go register voters at our table in the Dining Hall.

Yaron

with a FEW exceptions: ID, MS, and maybe KS

I have serious reservations about Dean being effective at all in the south, let alone in the important states like WV, AK, TN, and LA.

We need WV and LA to win this thing and AK. But I don't think Dean can do it. Look, we've written 50,000 letters to IA and NH. No letter in the world will make a moderate Dem in WV vote for Dean.

Maybe I'm being too harsh. I love Dean, I just fear for the campaign. As for me, I'm going to go register more Dems..
Bye now,
Yaron

I like a dose of healthy optimism as much as the next person, but "Count on Dean sweeping all the red states?" with only a "FEW exceptions: ID, MS, and maybe KS." Think they like Dean in Alabama? In Utah? In South Carolina? In TEXAS?

But few of my neighbors will. People want someone solid and dependable, not wonky and curmudgeonly. Dean's best case scenario will be to lose the EC by 80-100 votes.

The man's a train wreck waiting to happen. Count on it.

Today I saw 4 Dean bumper stickers. Even Texas is in play for Dean. Bet on it.

I'll have to tell all those people at our meetups that, as Texans, we're not supposed to be supporting Dean. And what are those Texas Ranger people thinking? Glen Maxey and his group? Well, he can't be a "true" Texan after all, since he is gay. :eyes:

The most support I have seen for any of the candidates down here is for Dean and Clark, with Edwards the next best. Even in the union stronghold of Jefferson County, Gephardt is losing ground and Kerry just never caught on. This would only be important for the primary anyway, since NO Dem will win Texas next year. Unlike Kansas, we'd even lose Texas if Jesus was our candidate. :-)

Not that it will matter even for the primary, since our primary could be moved even further back than March 9. So now our votes in March (?) AND November won't count!

I live in Kansas. If we nominated Jesus Christ on the Dem ticket, he might be able to win here. Maybe. It would be close. (A recount I think.)

I like your reasoning. Maybe MO or NH, but I don't think the others. Clark might do better, but it's possible that Dean can mobilize Dems better, and that's an important part of winning the states that Gore did.

..spot would make Dean, Kerry or Clark very hard to beat. He's just not ready for that #1 spot on the ticket.

However, his place as the #2 man would balance the ticket in a way those red states would not anticipate: my take on him is that he's at least as aware of labor issues as Gephart is.

Still, the DNC could offer us a salami sub to vote for. It would still be better than Bush.

I'd like John Edwards as the Presidential nominee, but if not, I'd like him as the VP nominee.

Or the liberal commie vegan nut-wad (from a moderate point of view..) Kucinich can?

Or the "I have nothing to say that doesn't have to do with me being a poor child" Edwards could?

Or "I'm a sellout" Gephardt?

Or "I'm a black woman" Mosely-Braun could?

Or "I'm a black man" Sharpton could?

.............

Dean and/or Clark are the only ones that could (and will) win lots of red states.

It's a pie!

Dean and his supporters so unlikable. I was reading this thread fine without any anger until I read this post.

BTW, Dean will notwin Iowa so don't count that one in.

It's a DEAN BASHING THREAD. :crazy:

About half is pro-Dean and anyway I've been reading a lot of threads tonight. There area lot of pro-Dean threads, but they were all pretty tame until I got to that one. I stopped coming on here for a while because the arrogance was just too much to take, but it seems to have toned down some. You don't reach many non Deanies if they can't read what you have to say without getting angry.
I'm trying the calm approach myself.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

It was that there was a statement like that about every other candidate but yours. You certainly don't think that's the first time I've read somthing like that on here, do you? I can count the Gep people that post to DU on one hand. I don't even come close to responding everytime something bad is said about him. I'm secure enough in my choice to not be rattled too easily. I just find it hard to not respond when someone has a nasty thing to say about everyone.

of this thread if it's about "nasty thing{s} to say" about Democratic candidates.

saying Dean is too left to win it seems to me. If you read the fine print this person says he is a Dean supporter.

machine the Democratic Party has ever had.

IMHO, if Dean can't win, noone can.

Put Clark on the ticket and let him learn how to politic like Dean knows how to politic and he'll be President in 2012. :)

It is my observation that Clark and Dean are the Democratic candidates who have the supporters with the enthusiasm.

then I am astounded. I know Dean is a centrist, I aint no fool. :shrug: I am not in love with the idea of a Dean-Clark ticket really. Just my personal view.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

Not in the caucus necesarily but he will take it in the general. Gov. Vilsak does well in Iowa and he will really push the nominee.

Couldn't resist. Someone should tell Edwards to NEVER EVER USE THE PHRASE 'Reglar People' again.

Dean '04...

Couldn't resist. Should someone tell Dean to NEVER USE THE PHRASE "You've got the power" again. That come-to Jesus, shouting Tony Robbins things was creepy.

Visit his website and see for yourself:
http://www.johnedwards2004.com/home.asp

but all I ever hear him say is something like:

"I was so poor when I was young that me my mom and dad and my brothers and sisters had to work in a mill 30 hours a day nine days a week and we didn't even make 4 cents and we starved. Now I'm a millionaire lawyer."

If he's got proposals.... then he should talk about them.

Clark/Landrieu would be a killer ticket, would probably deliver LA, WV, and AK. Also, I feel that this pair could take the Midwest (Iowa, Illinios, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, with the possible addition of Missouri). Arizona should be in play if Clark/Landrieu were the ticket.

I feel the same way about a Kerry/Edwards ticket, with the possible exemption of us winning either Arkansas or Louisiana (I see us winning one of them, but I don't think we could win both).

The Republicans also seem to think the VP slot will be important in 2004. Looks like there’s a movement out there to replace Cheney with Rice.
Check out this website – http://www.bushrice04.org/

Dean should definitely be able to bring New Hampshire aboard.
And Clark should be able to bring Arkansas aboard.
That's 10EVs there.

With the Gore states, that's exactly 270EVs. So there is a path that such a ticket could take.

I also suggest that some time and money be concentrated in Ohio, Nevada, West Virginia, and Arizona. Win any two of those, and our chances JUMP.

And by the way.. it's not illegal to "leak" fake poll results showing a particular state or two close. This could make 'em sweat a bit, forcing Bush to spend time and money in, say, Louisiana or Tennessee.. time that would otherwise be spent in Pennsylvania or Michigan.

And either of them would play well in Louisiana too. (and given recent elections in LA, we darn well better focus on it next year- no matter who the nominee is!)

CW has it that we lost WV in 2000 primarily because of guns (and somewhat because Gore was seen as a tree hugging wacko), and both of these guys have gun control stands that mean WV would go back to the Dems. 2000 was an exception for WV, and I don't think they'll make the same mistake next year. In fact, I think any of our people could take WV- it'll just be easier for some.

Dean can probably deliver NH, is doing very well in Arizona and New Mexico, and is polling better in the South than anyone gives him credit for. That's not to say that our other candidates are doing badly, but I am only answering your cahrge that Dean would lose in a landslide.

I think your worries about any specific candidate are unfounded. Instead, we should all be worried about making voter turnout as high as possible next year. As long as Dems go vote, we win next year with any of our top tier candidates. Period.

I understand focusing on the candidates themselves. However, it is critical to remember history. The last 2 victorious Dems were Clinton and Carter, both true Southerners. Sadly, the charge that Gore was not probably hurt him in his home state in 2000 and let's remember that if he won there Florida wouldn't have mattered. I will support the Dem nominee but I live in Illinois which has been kicking repugnicant ass for some time now. As far as having Edwards on the ticket, can we count on the number 2 man being enough to bring back the South? I'm not so sure.

Just watch Johnnie run:-)

We need one more. And I agree, Dean could actually lose Iowa. I honestly feel he would win NH and WV, but the national security fearing voters will not pick Dean over Bush, and I think Iowa is more conservative that way.
Our only hope with Dean is to win Florida. :scared:

to be worried. Once an agenda in stark contrast to our regime's is presented things will get better. I predict a geographically balanced ticket which despite the mediawhores is really quite politically moderate in record and substance. I too played with this electoral calculator, did you notice if jebbie steals Florida and we only win back New Hampshire and West Virginia its a 269-269 tie. Yikes, I have NO doubt what will happen in this scenario.

I figure we need to shore up our base in Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Minnesota, but the rethugs will have it worse. They will be playing defense in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Florida, and New Hampshire.