Gallup Poll analysis - 11/14/03

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031114.asp

Favorability Ratings of Candidates Among All Americans

...Clark clearly has the most favorable image of any of the candidates, with a net positive of 26 percentage points among the group of Americans who know enough about him to give an opinion. Clark is followed by Lieberman, Kerry, and Edwards, with net favorables in the +10 to +16 range, and then Gephardt and Dean. The remaining three candidates have net unfavorable images, with Sharpton in possession of the most negative image of all.
________________________

4. How are the Democratic candidates stacking up against George W.
Bush?

In hypothetical trial heats, Republican President George W. Bush beats all of the Democratic candidates -- but by varying margins.

Bush Versus Democratic Candidates
"If the election were held today"

Clark does best of the five leading Democrats; Bush beats Clark by only three percentage points among registered voters nationwide. Dean does the worst; Bush beats him by nine percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031114.asp
2. Is there a clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination nationally? =
No. Five Democratic candidates are now within seven points of one
another when Democrats who are registered to vote are asked whom they want to be their party's nominee next year:

Candidate Support for Democratic Party Nomination
Dean is technically the front-runner, with 17% of the vote of registered Democrats nationally, but he is followed very closely by Lieberman at 15%, Clark at 14%, Gephardt at 12%, and Kerry at 10%. Although the relative position of these candidates has tended to shift slightly from poll to poll, the overall picture now is no clearer than it was months ago. No one candidate has broken out from the pack as the clear choice of Democrats nationally.

The relative strength of the candidates is even clearer when we take into consideration whom Democrats name as their top two choices.
Lieberman, Clark, Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry all receive support from at least 20% of registered Democrats.

This is really good news, I think. Despite those economic indicators shooting up, all of our candidates are within single digits of Bush. Clark may be our party's savior; he's within 3 points despite the fact that very few people even know him yet!

I am always the optimist about this stuff.

is that Dean is still leading for dem nominatin (technically tied with Lieberman and Clark with moe) but is much less better known than nationally than many of the other candidates including: Lieberman, Kerry, Gephardt, and Clark.

Yet his fav/unfav rating of 3-1 fav is "in line with the other candidates".

And while he does least well vs. Bush I take it to have to do with the finding in this poll that he is not as well known and once he is that will also tighten as it has in other state polls.

I think you're looking at old poll numbers man....The poll just released by the Wall Street Journal is Clark 18%...Dean 16%. Keep up and quit quoting old quotes from channels like Fox News. (Notice they favor Dean because they know he can't beat Bush....hehe).

actually Gallup was released today.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031114.asp

so please don't lecture me on my facts. Thank you.

It could be a sign that you have a dedicated base. But if you pick any one of the other seven candidates you might vind that vs Dean they get more than half the vote, which explains why the person with 17% vs other candidates has a low favorability rating and does the worst in the head-to-head with Bush.

So just a 55% margin over the average is not that great...once someone has 28% or greater(with the full pack of 9 in the race)--then I will be impressed.

Is important according to previous posts...

It would seem consistency in Dean holding a lead, however small, would be important as well, right?

Most recent data from the Washington Post has Dean 15 point behind Bush now, and again, only Kerry within striking distance of beating Bush:

Here's a quote from the Washington Post, questioning Dean's electability: "A new Washington Post/ABC News poll pits five candidates – Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Clark and Dean – in a hypothetical general election match-up with President Bush. Kerry does the best, down only 6 points to Bush, while Dean does the worst, down 15 points."

Democrats are at it again. In most elections that we have lost to Republicans it came from an uncanny knack for choosing loosers.

For months now.

As voters get to know him nationally, it seems to be falling a similar pattern - 2 to 1 favorable to unfavorable.