2003 races show a trend

We lost Kentucky, and we lost Mississippi, we lost California, but we won Lousiana. We also won the statehouse in New Jersey. Notice a trned?

Kentucky had a sitting Democratic governor and changed parties to Republican, even though no incumbent was running, the incumbent party still lost. Mississippi's Democratic incumbent lost, and Lousiana, which formerly had Republican Mike Foster in the seat replaced him with a Democrat.

There's an anti-incumbency trend going throughout the nation now, and though the Republicans can relish more victories at this point, I think it's pretty clear that Americans are looking for a change in government, whether it be locally, statewide or federally. This is bad news for Bush becuase Dems might just ride this anti-incumbency wave right into the white house.

I had a barbecue with some Republicans today and while they were trashing the Democratic candidates, I told them that they should be prepared to eat their words.

Kentucky and LA were open seats so there was no incumbant. Mississippi was the only overthrown incumbant and I can't make anything meaningful out of a trend of 1.

They wanted change and the Republicans were the change for them.

Kentucky was a Democratic governors state, Lousiana a Republican state. Voters wanted a change and chose the other party. The incumebent party has been the loser in every election for 2003

If people really wanted a change they could have done that in CA where third fourth and 135th parties filed yet there was not ever a Perot like protest vote. If there was really a protest then the Greens and Libertarians would start getting numbers like fringe European parties...like 5-7%. Camejo got only 2.8% and he's actually a credible guy.

if Davis had been on the ballot, would Arnold have won? I still think the answer is no!

However...I think people are mad at both major parties, mad at the incumbents, and mad at the system in general. The level of rage is becoming frightening, and it must become directed toward some constructive good...rather than this destructive, vengeful hatred for all.

he would've lost by higher margins than Cruz Bustamante.

I stressed this overwhelming governor's trend here last year after the midterms, but everyone on DU seemed more interested in ripping individual candidates than looking at the big nationwide picture:

* Without an incumbent to defend the seat, the party in control has been ousted from the governor's mansion in overwhelming percentage lately, no doubt a backlash due to a poor economy. In 2002 it held up in something like 19 of 21 races. This year 2 for 2, in KY and LA. The CA recall was obviously a special case and difficult to evaluate.

I won a nice chunk of change in an election betting pool tonight, courtesy of the trend continuing via Blanco's upset victory. My opponents obviously, and thankfully, relied more on the late polls than 20+ examples over the past 12 months.

Our problem has been the defeated incumbents (Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, plus CA), which Republicans have been able to avoid. Also, one state that bucked the governor's trend was Massachusetts, which should have gone Dem last year based on previous Republican control. With Romney campaigning as an outsider, O'Brien's subpar performance in the final debates including a Russert hack job, and the tax hike issue spilling into Massachusetts TV stations via the New Hampshire governor's race, we blew one that was rightfully ours.

I think that 2002 and 2003 are linked in that anti-incumbency exectuive way, which fares poorly for Bush in 2004 if this trend continue. Though legislatively, things have stayed the same nationally (thanks to national security and 9-11) executive seats have shown a strong trend of turn-arounds.

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=721542>
This was prophecied in DU Apocalypse, 5:3-6:4 when Locke wrote:
"Then news of horror came from the blue land to the west. A man, foreign born and plated with steel, whose eyes glowed red, attacked their inept king and won.
5These were dark times.
6.
1Then the bird came again, this time healed. He brought with him news from a land to the South, famed for their beaded parties. He said, “Locke.”
2“Yes?” I replied.
3He tweeted a happy tune, “There is a woman, who is blue, and has brought victory to our cause.”
4When I heard this I rejoiced."