Hypothetical extrapolation of the latest polls

Starting with the latest New Hampshire polls at http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Let's hypothesize the following scenario:

The undecided 21% divide themselves up in the same proportions as the other 79%.

The followers of the "non-viable" candidates (no disrespect intended)all decide to support a viable candidate. That leaves everyone voting for one of the three front runners: Dean, Clark, or Kerry.

Let's assume that 50% of the Gephart supporters decide to support Kerry and the other 50% decide to support Clark, after all these guys really hate Dean, right?

Let's assume that everyone else also switches to either Clark or Kerry because they all hate Dean too.

So what's the final tally after all the dust settles:

Dean 48%
Kerry 43%
Clark 31%

In other words, if Kerry and Clark between them stole ALL the support of ALL the other candidates and split it 50/50, Dean still comes out on top.

the DNC power/money machine. i will gladly support an dem candidate, but i strongly suspect that the DNC will pressure state parties to back the candidate with x's in the most anti-bush boxes: national security, gun safety, consumer defense, health care, education, etc.

Let's assume that 50% of the Gephart supporters decide to support Kerry and the other 50% decide to support Clark, after all these guys really hate Dean, right?

Let's assume that everyone else also switches to either Clark or Kerry because they all hate Dean too.

Very interesting point you make. Of course we know these assumptions are absurd -- Dean is extremely well liked among people who currently support other candidates. But you certainly do put the New Hampshire numbers in perspective.

Since your math adds up to 122% support.


Let's also "assume" that Mickey Mouse decided to run as a republican. Since there is bound to be some "gay day" at Disney just before the elecion, we'll assume that half of the republicans will not vote for their own candidate and that get's added to our count for 172% support.

Even with only 50% turnout, that's almost 100% of registered voters.