Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Nov.3 update

Center for Politics, University of Virginia
November 3, 2003 Update:

--Dean-- has received two big boosts since our last update. First, the 1.3 million member Service Employees International Union--the AFL-CIO's largest union--will give its presidential endorsement to the former Vermont governor. Yes, Gephardt has received the lion's share of labor backing, but this is a big one. Second, the Crystal Ball's analysis shows Dean to be far in front of the others as of November 1st.

--Clark-- has been on the roller-coaster and he has discovered that politics is indeed much different in a presidential race than in the military. Touted by some besotted media as the Democratic McCain of '04, Clark instead has proven he is not yet ready for anything approaching prime time.

The general's image still attracts some Democrats in more conservative southern and rocky mountain states, but Clark's misstatements about Iraq and his own record, the attacks from respected military leaders with whom Clark has worked in the past, and his staffing difficulties have obliterated the pedestal upon which Clark had been placed by certain interested elements. Having dropped out of the Iowa caucases, Clark is now placing his chips on New Hampshire.

Who knows? Maybe he will indeed pull a McCain-style upset in the Granite State--though no poll suggests any such thing at the momment. But his substantial flaws are being exposed and will make it difficult for this Clark to drop his civvies and reveal a Superman outfit underneath.

--Kerry--What is it about John Kerry's staff? All anyone wants to tell the Crystal Ball about is the vicious internecine battles in the Kerry camp. The old saw is true: if a guy can't control his staff, he can't run the country. Moreover, Kerry increasingly seems to us to be in a semi-permanent funk, not quite believing that his frontrunner status is gone and that he may be losing to the former governor of the People's Republic of Vermont.

So who’s ahead and likely to win the nomination? Two key questions must be answered first: (1) Which campaign factors are predictive? (2) How much does each factor matter? Read more about The Democratic Crystal Ball Formula

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_newrating.htm