Louisana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, the key to victory?

Bill Clinton won all these states in 1996. Gore lost them all 4 years later. If we can at least be competitive in these states and make Bush come down and spend money and resources, I think it would go a long way towards overall victory.

Otherwise, if we more or less write off the south and concentrate on Florida and Ohio and lose those states, then what? We're basically screwed with little to no margin for error.

If Clark is the nominee, he could take Arkansas (and maybe Tenessee or Missouri). I don't know about Louisiana.

I think the key to winning this election will be in Ohio though.

Clark has been endorsed by Senator Breaux of Louisiana, in case that is news to you. Clark also has advantages in SC and FL, because they have a lot of veterans.

Winning any state in which Gore lost would be a plus; I'm not sure Dean can do it. Ohio, FL, and PA look important to me, but it would be nice to get support from all parts of the country; it would make it easier for whoever wins to get their job done.

..because we're going to lose every one of them.

Winning everything Gore did is enough of a chore, especially vs. an incumbent with all that rose garden crap including the opportunity to invent an imminent terrorism threat at a whim.

Biggies like PA and MI are anything but certain, not to mention all the ones we carried by much smaller margins. My friend says it's like we're trying to draw to an inside straight.

What we really need is a popular nominee who can manage at least a 1 or 2 point margin nationwide. I have an Excel model that I've tinkered with, and like 2000 it consistently reports we're in electoral peril in a 50/50 scenario.

In regard to those four states, I can't foresee Tennessee in our camp outside a huge national win. Likewise Arkansas, assuming Dean and not Clark. Louisiana and especially Missouri should be more competitive, but we're at least several points the underdog right now.

West Virginia are also very important and were also won by Clinton at least once.