Oil's Wild Ride - Price spike the result of the looming attack on Iran?

Oil prices hit an all-time high (not inflation-adjusted) before this weekend. There have been several explanations given for it, but author Charles H. Featherstone suspects it might be linked to the perception the US will attack Iran (or another ME country?) by June.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/featherstone/featherstone22.html
Hang On, It Could be a Wild Ride
by Charles H. Featherstone

There...seems to be some panic brewing over US gasoline stocks, with many traders doubting the veracity of US government data released this week showing an increase of gasoline stocks along the Gulf Coast. At the same time, the American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in gasoline stocks, and the Energy Information Agency – which publishes storage data for crude, refined products and natural gas every week – said it would look into the matter.

Sounding the alarm, Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading told CBS MarketWatch that "For weeks, many analysts have been downplaying the grave situation gasoline stocks are facing this summer but now they are...acknowledging that there may be some serious problems."

. . . . .

I cannot prove it, but I think the prospect of war with Iran has been haunting world oil markets since last summer, when the price broke $40 and then wandered on up past $50. Sure, there were other things affecting the price of Brent and West Texas Intermediate, most notably short gasoline stocks in the US and unrest in Iraq. But ever since the Bush administration committed itself to filling the 700 million Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the middle of this summer, I think a lot of people believe that reserve is being filled to make up for the huge disruption in world crude oil supplies that any sustained attack – air campaign or land invasion – of Iran would most assuredly bring.

Iran is related to the World Resource Restructuring. If anything, it would drive the price of oil down. If the US were to march in and take Iranian oil, that would be seen as a plus.

It's actually about Saudi Arabia. I've read on other newsgroups that Saudi Arabia does not have the proven reserves that they claim to have. They claim they have the world's #1 deposits, but that hasn't been verified. Iraq was always believed to have the #2 deposit, but if this is true about SA, then Iran would actually be #1.......= big trouble.

Also, there are new fears that if they keep increasing their production, it could turn the 'sweet, light crude' into a sandy sludge. So they may be forced to slow down production. This is what the fear is about right now.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is simmering under the surface with 25% unemployment, millions of young, disenfranchised young men who are willing to turn to terrorism to unseat the Royal Family. It's sitting on a powderkeg, to put it mildly.

The world is fragmenting and dividing into new , according to oil deposits. Wars will be fought and won over oil. All you have to do is check the map for the biggest oil reserves, and there you will have wars being waged on top of them.

It's Saudi Arabia.

I had heard about the problems with overproduction in SA, but I hadn't considered how it might play through to the next phase.

Excellent analysis.