Bush 8 yr GDP growth may reach 2.865%/y if he meets his projections

The BEA report released 1/27/06 projects Bush final three years at 3.4, 3.3 and 3.3 despite last year only achieving 3.1% GDP growth.

If Bush achieves these growth rates his 8 years will come in at a compound average of 2.865% - or well below that achieved by Carter over 4 years (3.21%), Reagan over 8 years (3.497%), and Clinton over 8 years (3.601%), beating only his Dad's 4 year compound average of 2.129%.

But you have to like the Bush folks moving from end of 4th quarter GDP to end of 4th quarter GDP comparisons to something called an "annual GDP" and then claiming the 3.1% growth in 2005 is really 3.5% when you compare these "annual GDP"

Seems that the 2 war years of 03 and 04 and their huge deficits pumped up the growth to 3.89% per year for those two years.

Now with the GOP saying stop the deficit, it looks like junior will be SOL in trying to achieve growth like Clinton, or even Carter.


http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm
FRIDAY, JANUARY 27, 2006 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2005 (ADVANCE)

2005 GDP

Real GDP increased 3.5 percent in 2005 (that is, from the 2004 annual level to the 2005 annual level),compared with an increase of 4.2 percent in 2004.

The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2005 were personal consumption expenditures
(PCE), equipment and software, exports, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased in 2005.

The deceleration in real GDP in 2005 primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in PCE and in federal government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.2 percent in 2005, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2004.

Current-dollar GDP increased 6.4 percent, or $745.1 billion, in 2005. Current-dollar GDP increased 7.0 percent, or $763.1 billion, in 2004.

During 2005 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2005), real GDP increased 3.1 percent. Real GDP increased 3.8 percent during 2004. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent during 2005, the same increase as during 2004.
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GAO finds $1.6 billion in media contracts

The Bush administration spent more than $1.6 billion on public relations and media-related contracts in 2003-05, according to a Government Accountability Office review of seven Cabinet-level agencies. The Defense Department spent the most: $1.1 billion.

But you have to like the Bush folks moving from end of 4th quarter GDP to end of 4th quarter GDP comparisons to something called an "annual GDP" and then claiming the 3.1% growth in 2005 is really 3.5% when you compare these "annual GDP"


The “annual level” referred to in the BEA release is the total of the quarterly GDP figures before they are annualized. To annualize the quarterly GDP they simply multiply it by four.

http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/gdplev.xls

If you divide the annualized quarterly figures for any year (column G) by four then add them together you will get approximately the “annual level” for the corresponding year (column C). Or you could simply average the four quarterly annualized figures.

their estimates on growth. We are actually contracting in GDP.

"Williams has analyzed and compared the way in which the unemployment figure was historically calculated versus the way it is calculated today. He concluded that if it “were calculated (today) the way it was during the Great Depression, it is now running at about 12%." As well, he says, "Real CPI is now running at about 8%. And the real GDP is probably in contraction." Clearly, the government’s methodologies that generated these bogus numbers are all designed to paint a more favorable picture of the economy and the markets than is the reality."

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0325.html