'Asia must prepare for dollar collapse'

Tuesday 28 March 2006

East Asian economies need to prepare for a possible collapse of the US dollar, the Asian Development Bank says.

The warning comes as the US trade deficit reaches a record high and global interest rates continue to rise.

..."Our suggestion to Asian countries is: Don't take this continuous financing of the US current account deficit as given. If something happens then East Asian economies have to be prepared."

AFP: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/50B0028B-B417-4FDE-866C-842CB3280A4F.htm
AFX: http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1143526915-f05e0f08-08441
Reuters: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/28/business/adb.php

and the US economy is held up by hot air, wishful thinking, and hugely expanding consumer debt. It is simply not sustainable.

The only difference is seeing this somewhere besides the DU boards.

Especially given the message from Bush's new and improved Treasury boss earlier this month regarding the value of the dollar dropping.

I think we're being warned.

2 trillion dollars being printed right now, and the hiding of M3, surely these things aren't coincidences!

There are no coincidences in economic policy. However, this thread was locked due to the source being extremely unreliable.

LOL

I had lunch yesterday with a client, and we have traditionally avoid political talk. I believe he's a bit more conservative than I. Somehow the topic of the economy came up briefly, and I sarcastically said, "but the economy is GREAT! That's what the tee-vee keeps telling me!"

He responded, "well, it's not great here, but it is great everywhere else in the country." He was serious.

I wanted to respond to that so badly... to talk about our debt, how China is owning us... oh, I was so close to opening a polite discussion (while holding back the desire to rant). But, I remembered this is a client, and I need the work because our economy SUCKS, and that it wasn't really an appropriate venue to have a heated discussion, so I let it go.

I'm curious if others have heard this statement, "the economy is bad here, but everywhere else it's good". I wonder how many conservatives that recognize their local economies are struggling think that it's just a local anomoly, and that the general US economy is as rosy as Bush claims it to be.

Russia and China just blocked a move to bring Iran's nuclear program before the UN Security Council. The matter stays at IAEA for now. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2195876&mesg_id=2195994

giving them 30 days to stop enriching uranium. It happend in the last 24 hours. The resolution doesn't mention any punative measures and can be ignored by Iran just like everyone including the US ignores resolutions.

It's an interesting chess game. If China could try to screw the US right when it's over extended in Iran. I'm not sure it's in China's interest. You'd think if they were planning on floating all that US debt, they'd do it before the US was obviously screwed. Maybe it's the other way around though. If someone owes you money, but has lots of nice assets you want, it is better to bankrupt them completely and get thier assets at a discount.

punative sanctions at the UN Security Council. The IAEA can not impose sanctions or order military action. This needs to be seen for what it is - another delaying action. The Bush Administration just doesn't have the cards to do anything more forceful in termes of diplomacy.

An attack on Iran would have horrific economic repercussions for the US, China and other energy-importing countries. The Dollar would go in the toilet, all those T-bills held by the Chinese would be devalued, world energy prices would explode. Lose-lose-lose.

In the end, the US would be set back into the second ranks of former empires, China would have to develop a new market, and perhaps the Russians and Saudis might be enriched because of increased oil revenues.

Response to:

German-Lefty (539 posts) Thu Mar-30-06 04:14 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Correction: the security council passed a resolution against IRAN
giving them 30 days to stop enriching uranium. It happend in the last 24 hours. The resolution doesn't mention any punative measures and can be ignored by Iran just like everyone including the US ignores resolutions.

It's an interesting chess game. If China could try to screw the US right when it's over extended in Iran. I'm not sure it's in China's interest. You'd think if they were planning on floating all that US debt, they'd do it before the US was obviously screwed. Maybe it's the other way around though. If someone owes you money, but has lots of nice assets you want, it is better to bankrupt them completely and get their assets at a discount.



oblivious (1000+ posts) Wed Mar-29-06 04:47 PM
Original message
'Asia must prepare for dollar collapse'
Tuesday 28 March 2006

East Asian economies need to prepare for a possible collapse of the US dollar, the Asian Development Bank says.

The warning comes as the US trade deficit reaches a record high and global interest rates continue to rise.

..."Our suggestion to Asian countries is: Don't take this continuous financing of the US current account deficit as given. If something happens then East Asian economies have to be prepared."

AFP: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/50B0028B-B417-4F...
AFX: http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew....
Reuters: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/28/business/adb.php

leveymg (1000+ posts) Wed Mar-29-06 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
8. If the US attacks Iran (w/o UN authorization) that's exactly what'll occur
Russia and China just blocked a move to bring Iran's nuclear program before the UN Security Council. The matter stays at IAEA for now. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...