Economists say odds of recession are rising

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22476544/

After six years of uninterrupted growth, the outlook for the U.S. economy in 2008 has darkened considerably in just the past month. While many economists say it’s too soon to know whether a recession is coming, forecasters say the latest economic figures don’t look promising.

“Obviously, the recession risk is rising sharply,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poors. “We're getting to near even odds for recession in the first half of the year.”

Given the rapid pace of slowing since the sizzling 4.9 percent annual growth rate logged in last year’s third quarter, there is some speculation that the economy may already be slipping into a period of negative growth. Given the lag in the collection and analysis of economic data, it’s not unusual for a recession to be underway before statistics confirm it...

And admit that the recession is HERE? Do we need to hit $5 per gallon on gas? Is it going to have to effect the wealthiest in this country before someone shows they still have cajones?

There's too much spin in the economic reports.

They need to be talking about the impending "D" word, but that would scare too many folks & you know the media can't have that.

Late payments on a cluster of consumer loans, including those for autos, home improvement and certain home equity loans, climbed in the summer to their highest point since the country's last recession in 2001.

The American Bankers Association reported Thursday that the delinquency rate on a composite of consumer loans increased to 2.44 percent in the July-to-September quarter. That was up sharply from 2.27 percent in the previous quarter and was the highest late-payment rate since the second quarter of 2001, when the economy was suffering through a recession.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/01/03/america/Late-Payments.php

and in stores and on the street. We all know the axe is about to fall and some of us even know it's going to fall on us.

The "growth" of the past few years was paper growth, only, reflecting the growth of domestic inflation rather than real wealth. Real wealth has declined substantially with the decline of the dollar. Numbers show "growth" only after they have been thoroughly Enronned.

If we're lucky, we'll have enough non ideologues to deal with this mess and get us back on the right track. A PBS special on Andrew Jackson had a great quote, "Sometimes capitalism has to be saved from itself." This is one of those times, when a few men have grabbed all wealth and left the rest of us with debt. Such an economy is going to topple spectacularly. The only questions are when, how deeply, and how long it will last.

.. their best talent is telling you what is going to happen after it's already happening :)

A recession only means two consecutive quarters of slower growth. A depression is four consecutive quarters.

When the numbers can be obfuscated, a recession by definition might not happen.

Now, if they were to start talking about wage stagnation, increased input costs, and other things that are really happening and affecting normal people, that would be something.

But as long as the story is about the term recession, they can continue to hold out hope.