I hate to say I told you so

But ... not really.

A little over a week ago all and sundry were "it's the end of the world. the stock market will never go up again. oil will never go down again. the bank industry is over with" bla bla

I pointed out a # of statistics, that we were VERY oversold, that the time to buy is when there is blood on the streets ,and the time to sell is euphoria.

And I took a fair amount of crap for saying this.

Welll.

Let's recap

The bank index is now up almost FIFTY PERCENT (you read that correctly ) from it's swing low.

Oil is WAY off its highs.

The dow is up over 750 pts

and btw, for all those commodity market 'experts', corn has dropped over TWENTY FIVE PERCENT in the last couple of weeks.

My point - when retail (ie laymen ie non-traders) are screaming that it's the end of the world, the smart money is BUYING.

and when retail is euphoric - we're selling

Am I adding shorts today? Heck, yea. AFTER this rally, it makes sense.

Because we've had a huge rally.

in a bear market.

But again... bank index up FIFTY PERCENT

people are happy to make 10-15% a year, and you could have made 30% on bank index in a week (catch the middle of the move at a minimum).

The market rewards those who think as a contrarian, and take CALCULATED risks with defined risk-stops.

In the interest of full disclosure:
I wussed out on LCC (US Airways). A hedge fund friend said BUY it @ 2. It's now 4.74. In other words, it's more than DOUBLED in a few days... sigh...
I was "scared" because it LOOKED so bad. So, even I am subject to this stuff too! I just grit my teeth and go against my instincts and the conventional wisdom... but as shown... not always

Now back to your regularly scheduled doom and gloom.

All the fundamentals are still terrible, and the death spiral is still in place.

Gloat all you want now. We'll see where the "smart money" is at the end of the year.

Are the fundies still #$(#$( ?

Sure.

But what's important is making money - building wealth. Not crying that "the fundies suck, so they SHOULDN'T have gone up"

The market was massively oversold, the opportunity was there.

I mentioned several ways to short oil, and go long financials.

It was THE trade, and it was hard to take because the conventional wisdom - ie laymen like you - claimed NO NO NO NO.. THE WORLD IS OVER!!! OMG!!!!

Fwiw, I am net short now. (35 short/25 long/40 cash) right now

NOW... AFTER the rally

sell strength in a bear market.

NOT weakness

Look at how many sucker rallies there were before it finally hit bottom and started to crawl back up.

Nothing is going to change the general downward market trend except a complete reversal of Reaganomics and all the fiscal insanity that went with it.

Even then, it's likely to take a long time before it starts to recover.

A situation which is deliberately created. Nice that you have the time and savviness to sit there scrutinizing the fluctuations of the financial markets. The vast majority of people don't. You may mock them, but you do so at your peril. They are the reason that you have stocks to move around. When they stop buying things, your investments won't be worth shit.

you are a true American hero.:puke:

Nothing prevented you from making money.

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

But NOBODY makes money from panicking.

The market offers opportunities. People can whinge about how much it sucks, or TAKE THE FRIGGING opportunities.
Buy panic. Sell euphoria. rinse, lather, repeat.

There are starving people all over the world. Does that mean I shouldn't eat today? Or should I give to charity, and enjoy my next meal?

The answer is obvious.

But I can think it.

to better one's station in life is "greedy and disgusting" then I plead guilty. It's a free country. You can do what you want with your money - charity, your family, or invest in companies you believe in.

Wanting to make money is the engine that has driven successful economies for time immemorial.

As long as you aren't cheating others, I say go for it!

Milton Friedman returns from the grave.

Except that most people don't have the residual cash to play the stock market. You must feel very proud that you're better off and smarter than 90% of the people in the US. :eyes:

I've watched my 401K and my husband's tank in the past 7 years. We will probably be working until we're 75.

off of money instead of production of anything useful.

I think that every third trader on wall street should be hung, just on principle.

Benefiting from the misery of others can be very lucrative.

The waahmbulance crusade continues.

The market benefits EVERYBODY who dollar costs averages over the long run.

there has NEVER been a 20 yr period in history where this has not made money

including the great depression

the people who get slaughtered are those who take too much risk, use too much leverage, and fail to use discipline

I lived in the hood for some time, and had very little money.

At one point I was doing $25 a month into mutual fund. Many people spend several times that on cig's and junk food.


I was more referring to the people who were whinging that their IRA's were suckin' wind.

You mean the way Bill Cosby lived in "the hood"? You have a huge amount of Libertarian in you, don't you?

And not jokingly. Because it was. I'm not ashamed of that. And yes, I like Bill Cosby. Heck, I've slept in my car and lived on very meager earnings.

We must not be living right. What is the name of your latest motivational book?

That you have the ability to speak for others about their values.

If everyone is a frugal saver and investor with a 25 year plan, who buys all the stuff that the companies you invest in manufacture?

can profit from capitalism.

People who complain about "parasites" are part of the problem. Start participating.

do you know where I can put my twenty dollars?:sarcasm:

will take automatic monthly investments . start small. I started at $25 a month.

20 yrs ago.

I run into people like you occasionally. Well, enjoy that self-satisfied, "full" feeling. If there's a real crash, you go down, too. (And I'll just say "I told you so".)

I've been praying for a REAL crash since before christmas. We got a nice bear market, but not the panic selling I wanted.

And it's not about intelligence. It's about NOT LISTENING TO THE CRAP YOU ARE BEING SPOONFED BY TALKING HEADS IN THE MASS MEDIA and doing your OWN research and making your own decisions.

Investing is an art custom made for contrarians, and those who are willing to be DIFFERENT - just ask Warren Buffet.

Intelligent, specifically well educated people, tend to be terrible traders because they won't manage risk. Ask ANY broker. PhD's are the worst, followed by medical doctors. Because they think they are smarter than the market. NOBODY is.

Otoh, people who use common sense, manage risk, and think for themselves do well.

MOST floor traders on the CME are high school educated, and come from the working class.

NOT MBA's and such.

I'll repeat that.

MOST FLOOR TRADERS ON THE CME ARE HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATED, and much more common man than you would think.

Scores of millions of people are invested in the stock market.

It's the most democratic institution on earth.

You are a # in an order book. Nobody knows your age, gender, sexual orientation, race, etc.

The fact that they are well renumerated for their pathologies does not mitigate them.

Do you think the average trader gives a shit that people in 3rd world countries are suffering and dying to produce their wealth? Pshaw! They know it and don't care. They know that people in Africa are being hanged or having limbs hacked of, because they dare to challenge diamond mines and oil companies.

I recently watched a film called "The Corporation". In it, a stock trader described how he and his fellow traders were jubiliant after 9/11. Why? Because they knew that commodities like gold and oil would go through the roof. That's all they cared about.

I hope your money keeps you warm at night.

If you were more like our friend, you wouldn't haved asked to be poor by not investing properly. :sarcasm:

You know what they say, "The poor will always be with us".:puke:

I've been poor before. No shame in that.

I am saying that there are opp's to take advantage of.

:spray: thanks for that! :thumbsup:

you raise some great points...
Don't take it personally.
You are making a contribution here -- keep it up.

I am trying to offer a contrarian point of view. It saddens me that people who CLAIM they eschew the MSM etc. are so willing to believe whatever the talking heads say when it comes to the market, and just repeat it like it's some sort of gospel on high.

I am a firm believer that independent minded, contrarian, no bullshit, evidence based people are poised to succeed in the markets. If they would only get over their distaste for them, and their demonization of traders.

Lower lows are coming.

Will it be the end of the world? No. Global economic collapse? Of course not.


The fundamentals are horrendous, though...and we haven't even begun to see the effects of the consumer credit bubble.

There's always money to be made in the short term..something's always going down and something else is always going up. However, unless one is already in the market or is comfortable with high degrees of risk, I'd still advise staying on the sidelines for now.

I'm net short NOW. But last week, HELL NO. There were so many choice longs it was ridiculous. I can now hedge those longs with targeted shorts like SKF, DXD etc.

Do I think we'll retest the lows at a minimum ? yup

we're on the same page.

standing on the sidelines is poor advice for the average investor. they should dollar cost average.

for those willing to trade, they need to set their risk parameters and make their trades.

Like I said, LCC more than doubled in a few days. Bank index popped 50% etc.

With great panic, comes great opportunity.

:rofl:

He's simply pointing out that there's an opportunity to make a good deal of money immediately following a huge sell-off.

The market is still too squirrelly for my comfort level, but he's absolutely correct.

"one learns best with blood". I have lost money, and I learned that proverb in and out

There were immense opp's here last week. I implored OTHERS to take advantage.

I enjoy seeing others succeed. I used to be a personal trainer, and it gave me a similar satisfaction seeing people lose fat and meet fitness goals, and get healthier.

People can whinge about how bad it is , or they can take steps to make it better

It probably isn't a good idea to come on Democratic Underground to boast about making it big in the stock market AND saying "I told you so". It might be a big hit on Free Republic, but it really doesn't fly here.

free republic comments and other "you sound like a rightwinger" crap.

and for the umpteenth time, I am not boasting about MY trades and MY money.

I am trying to say "see. LISTEN to the market. Not the idiots in the MSM. And think for yourself. And take advantage of opp's. When it looks like there is blood on the street, you should be saying "what should i buy""

That's all.

It was the call that's important. the money is irrelevant.

But I can kind of understand how it would sound like boasting about the MONEY. It's not

I saw it as I believe it was intended...as a logical, realistic counter to the "doom-and-gloomers" here.

If I had come in here and said "I made a lot of money last week" that would be obnoxious. Not that I am above being obnoxious :)

But what I am saying is I repeatedly said LAST WEEK that there were immense opp's out there, I gave some examples, and I had numerous people tell me I was full of shit.

Everybody was saying it was the end of the world, batten down the hatches, etc. Since then we have had a huge pback in Oil, and a HUUUUUGE pop in the markets, specifically the financials.

I appreciate the support.

You are an intelligent, savvy person who is superior to people who are poor. Feel better now?

This isn't about feeling superior to the poor. Nowhere did I mention that.

Nor is it about feeling superiror to ANYBODY

Nor is it about my money. NONE OF WHICH I MENTIONED. But which those with an agenda (such as you) READ into it.

What it was about was to START THINKING FOR YOURSELF AND STOP BEING SPOONFED BY THE MEDIA.

I NEVER mentioned anything related to me making money. I mentioned the market dynamics and the trade setups and implored others to START THINKING FOR THEMSELVES and stop playing into the gloom and doom dynamic.

I moved 50% of my 401k and have made a little money,
I still dont have squat in there (about 1/2 of what I owe in Credit card debt)
but every little bit helps.

So... next 6 months look good?

Now. We've had a huge relief rally, so my bias is down from here, at least short term. Swing (6 months) I have no idea.

Personally, I've picked up a little boeing on the beatdown. My biggest holding has been Johnson and Johnson which is (at least thus far) bear market immune. regardless of the economy, people need soap, baby wipes, etc.

I'm not sure how much you have, but what I recommend for investors, in times like this, is to dollar cost average in over a period of 6 months to a year. Iow, buy small amounts each period (month) and don't try to time the market. If and when we get a huge selloff, I will be here pimpin' the opp's. But right now, nothing looks compelling, except Boeing to me - longer term

Johson and johnson is UP 10% so far this year, so I wouldn;t be a buyer at these levels. I'm just trailin stops.

Healthcare basics, like johnson and johnson , becton dickinson, and labcorp are all interesting longer term plays.

Note: these are not stock recommendations, and are for information only...

Do your own due diligence.

First of all, this is the Economy forum, not the Investment forum. Those of us who are "doom and gloom" are concerned mainly with the economy as a whole, NOT with the Stock Market. The Stock Market can be useful to talk about because it is one of the most "visible" aspects of our economy. However, for the majority of Americans who, like myself, do not have enough money to invest in the Stock Market, the economy is already in the crapper. What "Wall Street types" need to realize is that the average American is losing their buying power, and that effect is starting to finally "trickle up".

We are losing jobs at a fantastic pace right now, and unlike the past few recessions, there is NO mechanism in place to get those jobs back. In the 90's, the tech boom created jobs. When that bubble burst, the real estate bubble created jobs. Currently, there's not even a phony-baloney bubble to save us. Small businesses, which used to be the big job engine in our economy, are now almost non-existent thanks to consolidation and impossible startup costs (and good luck trying to get a loan in this economy). Federal, state and local governments are all in debt and are actually cutting jobs rather than creating them. Jobs are disappearing quickly and none are being created to replace them.

People are gloating that they are still making money in this economy. Well, good for them. I hope they enjoy it while it lasts. But they need to understand that the pain and the fear we're feeling, and the reasons for them, are very real, and for you to come in here and rub this in our faces is distasteful at best, downright ignorant and cruel at worst.

"First of all, this is the Economy forum, not the Investment forum. Those of us who are "doom and gloom" are concerned mainly with the economy as a whole, NOT with the Stock Market. The Stock Market can be useful to talk about because it is one of the most "visible" aspects of our economy. However, for the majority of Americans who, like myself, do not have enough money to invest in the Stock Market, the economy is already in the crapper. What "Wall Street types" need to realize is that the average American is losing their buying power, and that effect is starting to finally "trickle up"."

and part of the way you can hEDGE and INCREASE your buying power is through the market.

For example, buy Long EUR short USD fund to hedge against deflating dollar

" However, for the majority of Americans who, like myself, do not have enough money to invest in the Stock Market"

48% fwiw (just under a majority) fwiw in america are invested int eh stock market

"People are gloating that they are still making money in this economy. Well, good for them. I hope they enjoy it while it lasts. But they need to understand that the pain and the fear we're feeling, and the reasons for them, are very real, and for you to come in here and rub this in our faces is distasteful at best, downright ignorant and cruel at worst."

Except for the umpteenth time. That';s not what I did. I implored people to stop the doom and gloom crap because nobody makes money by walking around saying it's the end of the world and LOOK for opportunity, and I gave STATISTICAL example.

And I never ONCE mentioned that I made (any amount of) money off these recommendations.

I offered them to others to provide perspective. Whether or not I made money is irrelevant

Do you live in the real world?

I have a good-paying job, as does my wife. We are, quite bizarrely, considered "upper middle class" by the government. We are both penny-pinchers and have very few unnecessary expenses. And we don't even have $2 at the end of the month to invest in the stock market, OR the time to do the necessary research than would make investing in this market any better than going to the casino. That's one of the reasons that I feel very very badly for the majority of Americans who are worse off than the two of us.

"48% fwiw (just under a majority) fwiw in america are invested int eh stock market"

I would imagine that a vast majority of that figure is by Americans with 401Ks who do not have any daily control over where their money is going.

"I implored people to stop the doom and gloom crap because nobody makes money by walking around saying it's the end of the world and LOOK for opportunity, and I gave STATISTICAL example."

For most of us, it's not about merely making money anymore, it's about surviving, and making sure that our children have a decent world to live in. Those who are "Pollyannas", and who are insisting that everything's fine are keeping us from making their changes necessary to ensure our future. That's why I'm so passionate about this.

"I have a good-paying job, as does my wife. We are, quite bizarrely, considered "upper middle class" by the government. We are both penny-pinchers and have very few unnecessary expenses. And we don't even have $2 at the end of the month to invest in the stock market, OR the time to do the necessary research than would make investing in this market any better than going to the casino. That's one of the reasons that I feel very very badly for the majority of Americans who are worse off than the two of us."

Do you "pay yourself first". Especially with pre-tax investments like an IRA, I'd be surprised if you are upper-middle class and have nothing to invest.

But if that's the case, fine.


"For most of us, it's not about merely making money anymore, it's about surviving, and making sure that our children have a decent world to live in. Those who are "Pollyannas", and who are insisting that everything's fine are keeping us from making their changes necessary to ensure our future. That's why I'm so passionate about this"

That's great, except I am far from a pollyanna. Fwiw, I was VERY bearish. around christmas of last year. NOW, AFTER a 25% selloff, there was a good reason to be swing bullish. Now, again, I am looking to short into strength.

However, it is not "just about surviving" for "most of us". It's bad to be pollyanna. It's ALSO bad to overplay the economic situation of americans right now.

And people saying that oil will never drop - (it had it's largest weekly drop in history), or that the banks are DONE (they popped FIFTY PERCENT in a few days) are nothing but naysaying ANTI-SCIENTIFIC, ANTI-EVIDNECE, ANTI-REALITY contrarian indicators.

Overstating the downside doesn't help anybody's case. Nor does it heklp you survive

Don't you understand that, unlike you, most people don't have it that good, so we're not too keen on someone coming in here and gloating. I know you feel like you somehow deserve to have the last word, being superior and all. So I'll just put you on ignore now. Gloat away and good luck.

if you tell people they are overemphasizing doom and gloom (and statistically speaking, they were) and talk about opportunity, you don't CARE about the rest of the country or the world.

That is about as ridiculous a statement as I would expect from a member of the fantasy based community.

They are willing to construct whatever false paradigm necessary to maintain their Matrix.

Neither is very healthy.

A Balanced understanding of reality is a better approach.

I am a teacher who teaches 110 students per year. I have friends and family I love. ALL of them are going to be in deep, deep trouble if I'm right. You think I WANT that to happen? You think I WANT their lives to turn to shit? You think I WANT my son to live in world like that? I can promise you that I don't.

I've seen this coming for YEARS. I knew that the way we were spending money in this country was unsustainable. I watched as regulations were dropped, taxes were lowered for the wealthy, and mergers and acquisitions destroyed the small businesses that this country was built on. I wanted to do something about it THEN. Frankly, however, there were/are too many people like YOU in this country who, when faced with the facts, cover your ears and say incredibly stupid things like that I "WANT things to be bad." I blame people like you for the hell my son, my family, my friends, and my students will be going through in the coming years.

Have a nice day.

Actually, I feel uncomfortable when people say that anything, whether bull markets, or doom & gloom, are here to stay.

Just so you know we care. :eyes:

... .you'll be singing a different tune.

Markets never go straight down, and that's why these myriad little rallys are called "sucker's rallys".

At the moment things are looking up for some folks, but we'll see how the market holds up to trillions in derivatives...

Are you going to post another threat Gloating about how you sold at the top of this current fake, manipulated rally?

:rofl:

And if this guy sold at the top of this move then I suppose he's pretty nimble.

So far though, I have yet to see any gloating from him on this particular day.

I guess there is nothing to "I Told You So" about today.

Been around WS too long. Saved myself from the crash in the 80's and was lucky to lose only about 1/6 of my portfolio in the dot com bust. You can seldom error to far on the side of caution. Got in on the overseas market as Bush took over and got out of US but for a few holdings. Used my money to get out of debt saving me 17-39% Doing much better than WS return on investment. I am sure our friend was very active today. Frankly, I don't want to deal with market manipulations and am doing just fine as I am with out all the stress. Curious as to how he made out.

but you seem to have a mighty short term view. Most "doom and gloomers" (that are lucky enough to have any money) are INVESTING not TRADING.


http://finegoldsilver.com/information/your-investment-returns-gold-vs-stock-market/2008/05/24/

I only invest in mutual funds, mostly through my 401(k). I'm broaly diversified--large, small, value, growth, international, bonds, etc.

And I'm optimistic. I've never been a "doom and gloomer." Not for the long-term. In the short-term, yes, I think it will be very ugly. It won't be a great depression, though many here seem to think it will (and some hope it will).

I'm fully invested, and will continue to buy shares throughout the downturn.

Bullshit. I gain NOTHING should there be a depression. I am a realist, and I look at the facts. The facts are telling me that this is going to be very, very shitty for everyone.

See post #62 above. I am frankly SICK of the meme that those of us who are looking at the facts and seeing Depression WANT the economy to fail. It's disgusting and it's wrong.

Some people aren't looking at ALL the facts. They are letting their biases cloud their perception.

But there are always bears. There were bears all through the 1990s.

Looks like you've got that bad timing thing down to a science.

Gramm, that is. :eyes:

unprecedented move by the SEC to outlaw shorting the 17 financial institutions, didn't you? So of course the stocks are up. What a 'free' market we have...:sarcasm:

There are only so many thumbs that the Fed/Treasury can use to stop the flooding. Printing more $ is going to just make it worse.

You're taking a lot of heat from the haters here. I read your posts and think you make sense-- I save and invest and do my research on an ongoing basis. An interest in money, achievement and success does not make you evil-- it puts you in a position to help others. Shit, no poor person ever hired me...

some of my best patients can't afford me. Nothing wrong with a profit, but it is hard to justify obscene profit that are not shared. Guess the idea of benefiting humanity has all but gone by the wayside.

fact I have when I practiced in PA. Those clients accepted the legal service I provided gratis. I don't know that I'd exactly characterize that as hiring me-- not like anything was exchanged. Yeah I know-- I'm held to the same standard as if I got to bill them out and yes they got good service. But jesus imaginary christ you call that being hired? Seriously?

In earnest-- I've never thought of pro bono as being hired. But please allow me to split that hair-- no poor person, with the occasional exception of the poor person to whom services were rendered gratis, ever hired me to my economic benefit but as my paralegal used to tell me such works stored gold in heaven.

Both are valuable. If you did pro bono-you were hired. Let's hope our pay was that stored gold in heaven, otherwise you paid in time. I give a certain amount of my work/time as pro bono because I think it is the right thing to do, but it is the poor who hire me. I just don't exchange my time for money in the usual sense.

Sometime when I talk about being paid-I frequently tell folks they can't afford my rates because I'll only take it pro bono.

The crisis is still upon us.

The worst of the exotic/toxic mortgages, ALT-A, will hit hard in the 2nd half of the year.

Oil is down because the summer driving season is almost over.

The DOW is up because large institutions are unwinding their positions before the fall/winter sell off. So, they run up the market to sucker people into their positions and get out in the fall.

This housing mess started in early 2007, and the DOW hit 14,000 in August 2007. Sucker rallies happen all of the time.

It may sound terribly tacky, but I've wondered while reading this thread who here gives 10% of their income regularly to their church OR, to the poor? That's an important thing to do. No, we probably can't make poverty go away, but we can all do our part.

maybe a hummer

and turn that fine new income into whopping debt like a good capitalist. If you don't, you hate America.

:popcorn:

And I'm telling myself "I told you so!" :D

not the stock market. ;-)

Like we didn't know...

:D

I assumed that he was a day trader trying to get some extra clients. I may revise the post you responded to, just so you know.

This furthers my belief that anyone who does not see what's happening to our economy must be either willfully ignorant or a troll... :D

:D

that probably did him in.

What an idiot!

Yeah, that really showed his true patronizing colors for sure.

He had a nice heating system in a self-designed house partly below ground level. He provided for all his heating needs by collecting downed branches from around his town population 40,000 or so. So far, so good. But then he went on to INSIST that everybody in town could and should do exactly the same thing. There is an obvious problem with that, of course, that we needn't discuss.

you say weather