Even now, retailers see a blue Christmas

flashl

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Fri Jul-25-08 06:24 AM
Original message

Even now, retailers see a blue Christmas

There's no cheerful way to say it: Get ready for a sober Christmas season.

Yes, it's only July, but retailers already are deep in planning mode for the holiday season, and what they are sensing adds up to potential trouble, with some experts saying this could be the toughest environment in almost 30 years.

"What word should I use? Terrible? Horrible? Miserable?" said Homi Patel, chairman and chief executive of Hartmarx Corp., a Chicago-based clothing manufacturer of suits and sportswear, when asked to describe the 2008 holiday. "There is a time when the consumer isn't going to shop. It doesn't matter if it's 70 percent off or 80 percent off, the mind-set is, 'I just don't want to shop.' And that's something we haven't seen in quite some time."

...

Consumer spending accounts for about 71 percent of GDP, up from 65 percent in 1980. Platt predicts that percentage will revert to about 66 percent as consumers seek to strengthen their household balance sheets over the next decade.

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Karl_Bonner_1982

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Fri Jul-25-08 06:27 AM
Response to Original message

1. Maybe it will push back this silly Christmas creep

Edited on Fri Jul-25-08 06:28 AM by Karl_Bonner_1982

We're concerning ourselves with a late December holiday in the middle of July. Pretty soon we'll be celebrating Christmas 364 days a year. My only hope is that a shopping recession pushes things in another direction.

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flashl

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Fri Jul-25-08 06:43 AM
Response to Reply #1

2. Its my understanding, the Xmas season's revenues is how the retailers survive.

If that's true, and that revenue stream disappears, so will many retailers. And, that is not considering what 'new' type of GDP alchemy is required.

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Warpy

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Fri Jul-25-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. We've already seen a lot of retailers go under

Comp USA and Sharper Image among the chains with a lot of strip mall stores in the trophy house parts of town disappearing.

Expect the process to accelerate next spring. People have reached a critical debt limit combined with inflation and are now spending only on subsistence. Food, transportation to work and housing are the critical needs. Everything else gets put off, shoved aside, ignored.

Expect business to increase at dollar stores as people scramble for something to wrap that they won't have to go into hock for. I've already seen that in my own neighborhood last year.

The year after that, it'll be thrift shops as anything new is out of reach for people with debt to service.

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Karl_Bonner_1982

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Fri Jul-25-08 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. And that starts the downward spiral

Fewer jobs in the retail sector...fewer paychecks, less consumer spending, and so on...

What really matters is whether the government steps in and provides the things necessary to keep the economy from collapsing: work relief, food relief, anti-eviction interventions, demand-side stimulus.

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Karl_Bonner_1982

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Fri Jul-25-08 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. How did the retail sector get so holiday-dependent in the first place?

Forty years ago they did just fine and there weren't any holiday-themed decorations or events until the last week of November. Nowadays it's getting hard to tell whether the month of November is the last month of autumn or the first month of winter...

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snappyturtle

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Sun Jul-27-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #5

8. Having had a small gift shop in my last life I know what did it to me.

I had to start the "celebration" earlier and earlier as Wal-Mart took the lead to do so. To wait meant losing sales to the big box AND it seems that people like to shop early to have more time to do entertainig, etc. before Christmas. And, let's face it....it helps women who have jobs to spread shopping out a little. Just my humble opinion. Ho! Ho! Ho!

This will be a crazy year for those who can afford to shop because I don't foresee retailers abundantly stocked.

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Karl_Bonner_1982

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Mon Jul-28-08 03:59 AM
Response to Reply #8

9. Just don't put up any snowflakes before Thanksgiving...

Edited on Mon Jul-28-08 04:00 AM by Karl_Bonner_1982

All I ask is that you acknowledge the fact that November is still an autumn month in your decor. General holiday themes that don't emphasize winteriness, that sounds OK to get shoppers.

Unless you live in a very cold climate where winter really is five or six months long, of course...

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snappyturtle

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Mon Jul-28-08 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #9

10. I don't have a shop anymore so I'm not decorating. I have lived where

there could be snow from October 'til May....it is different in various regions of the country. However, the Christmas stuff in October is sickening in my book. Black Friday is soon enough.

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AnneD

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Sat Jul-26-08 05:17 PM
Response to Original message

6. I have my yarn and knitting needles at the ready.....

It is going to be a homemade Christmas around here.

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Warpy

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Mon Jul-28-08 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #6

11. I just finished spinning black alpaca for fingerless mitts

for friends in New England. I'm now spinning some gorgeous silvery bunny fur carded with wool, 2 ply lace weight for a shawl.

All I'm waiting for is cooler weather so I can manage knitting needles without sweating like a pig and dropping them when they get slippery.

I'll round it out with what I usually do, salsas and luxury homemade soaps from the craft fairs here in the late fall. I don't do retail, but I do like to support local craftspeople.

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ozymandius

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Sun Jul-27-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message

7. We at Chez Ozymandius are making all our gifts this year.

We feel as though a personalized, good and thoughtful item has more meaning. It's not always cheaper, depending on what you make - just better in some regards.

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