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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 10:52 AM
Original message
$ to thrash around for 30 days and then dive into the tank.
Just got off the phone with an friend from old infantry days who is now an EU banking advisor. This guy is in the London area and works for a Brit private bank (really a currency trading org). Anyway he is american astrologer who has great track record with the currencies and astro-stuff(don't ask me how it is done, all I know is that they pay him seriously high 6 figures). Anyway, he calls, we chat.

Word is from EUzone that the Bucko is expected to thrash around for next 30 days and then tank totally.

My friend is not passing on his astro stuff, though that is damn good...rather he is giving me a heads up to protect myself (and my meager 12 dollars in bank) from coming dollar crash. My friends projection is really damn good. He was off by only one percentage point on calling the dollar's degree of downfall in 2003 and he did that in Nov of 2002. But this warning on the dollar is coming from technical levels. And also comes as a result of the currency trading that they do for international clients (*big uns). He says that all their clients are coming in to get dollar selling strategies. Including how to work 'pump & dumps' on the buck in local markets.

Anyway, he says the shit to be fan hitting starting 30 days from now. He says the crash will come for technical over-valued, hugely-over debted reasons, but that undoubtedly some 'news' story will be pegged and called the 'cause'.

Anyway, he says the 30 day count down started yesterday. So we will see. But I am betting that my buddy is right. He saved 18 of us from disaster in 'nam when he did the chart for our platoon and said that we would be ambushed that particularly hot summer day in the highlands out of Pleiku. He was correct, and we were there first. All of us came back that day, unlike other days after he got sent back stateside.

Anyway, I plan to take the time to get to costco this next month and put every dime I can into storable food, necessary supplies.

Just a thought. Not all is as it seems these days and I trust the word I get from friends in high and low places.

My hell's angels acquaintences say that 'suits' are coming around trying to buy large quantities of silver bars from them. It is apparently become known to TPTB that the biker crowd's internal currencies are 10 and 100 oz silver bars. The 'authorities' desperately need silver, and have sent some kids out to S. Diego to try to purchase same from the biker 'treasury'. I hear the response was that they won't take paper for metal, but if they (suits/bankers) want to buy quantities of silver, then pony up gold......

not the answer they wanted to hear.

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cosmicdot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
1. America may have no choice but to abandon corporatism
due to costs ... the good ol'boys only thought of themselves as they abandoned a quality of life for all of us

the transition period (recovery period?) has the potential of making the Great Depression look like a mild recession ... very scary ...

another alternative to storable foods:

Designer Foods, formulas of Durk Pearson & Sandy Shaw

Maybe The Carlyle Group will turn its soda bottling works into water purveyors.

http://www.life-enhancement.com/product.asp?SID=1&id=96 which is a phenylalanine generating formula (similar to eating a hamburger and having a milk shake) 1 Tablespoon = 1 serving 37 servings for about $25 becomes 'economical' considering the possible alternatives ... long shelf life, too

Pearson and Shaw, also, have these

http://www.life-enhancement.com/product.asp?SID=1&id=42

http://www.life-enhancement.com/product.asp?SID=1&id=118

http://www.life-enhancement.com/product.asp?SID=1&id=104
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
2. Junker, I'm sorry, but your post comes off sounding bizarre!
Edited on Fri Jan-16-04 01:30 PM by KoKo01
Your astrologer Nam buddie who btw saved your platoon from death, is now an EU banking advisor with an excellent market predicting track record is warning that the dollar is going to crash in 30 days. In addition to that, your Hell's Angel's biking buddies are claiming that "suits" are hustling them for their stock of silver bars? :eyes:

Are you writing a script for a movie and trying it out here on DU to see how it plays with a "sceptical audience?"

:crazy:
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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Troll.
Edited on Fri Jan-16-04 04:06 PM by cosmicaug
Perhaps Junker is legit (though only in his own mind --by which I mean he is sincere in his delusion) or perhaps he's just a troll having fun.

On edit: Spelling.
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Well......I didn't want to come right out....still "even a blind squirrel
finds a nut" and even "paranoids have real enemies." I think Junker has "some things" right on...but when it gets into Hells Angels and "suits" and Nam and astrological buddies who are stock pickers...I don't know.

To qualify: I "koko01" post all the time on DU's Astrology Forum because I love Astrolgy and DO read Astrological Market Timing sites, but "Junker" really went way beyond even where I could go...with his post. I read alot of Financial Posts and am an investor and a "stock market watcher for many years...so I'm not "clueless" but this post really just was OTT! And, I'm also one of the big DU :tinfoilhat: folks here. So, I figure if "I" have a problem with this post....then I gotta believe it's way over it. :shrug:

I'm still waiting for Junker's reply.....since we've sort of trashed him/her, here. But, there have been a few....shall we say "border line posts" preaching hysteria...so Junker needs to get back to us on this.

;-)'s
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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Nuts.
Edited on Fri Jan-16-04 10:50 PM by cosmicaug
KoKo01 wrote:
Well......I didn't want to come right out....still "even a blind squirrel finds a nut" and even "paranoids have real enemies."

Great saying. I was unfamiliar with that one. I wanted to write that even a stopped clock is exactly right twice a day (and no doubt, even junker will be right one of these days --but it's hard to take him seriously if there's no way of telling which of these times is going to be the one time when he is right).


KoKo01 wrote:
And, I'm also one of the big DU :tinfoilhat: folks here. So, I figure if "I" have a problem with this post....then I gotta believe it's way over it. :shrug:

You've said it, not I. :-)

Three predictions to be fulfilled yet (not counting the ones which are past due):
  • That there will be no discernible trend (not up or down) until sometime around 15-February-2004.
  • That there will be a downward trend from sometime around 15-February-2004 with a much greater slope than what we're used to seeing the past few months.
  • That gold will hit a price of $900/oz. (this one was made in an earlier thread).

Of course he's probably made other predictions where he was more vague or that I've simply missed.

Like I've written before, maybe he'll get one right eventually* (though I doubt any special knowledge will have anything to do with it).


P.S. I don't really think he's a clever troll. It's just that I'm forced to admit that the possibility cannot be dismissed (particularly with posts like the one starting this thread).
* Besides, if I went around predicting he's never going to get it right, wouldn't I be guilty of the same "sin"? :dunce:


On Edit: Added postscript.
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jmcgowanjm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. In Arkansas it's-even a blind hog will find an acorn every now and then
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 11:26 AM by jmcgowanjm
I use it all the time.

BTW, on the dollar ndx charts, it was time
for $ to take a breather.
To build a shelf/consolidate whatever,then
resume trend.

The trend is your friend and I saw no capitulation
of $ positions at the 85.70 point.

http://stockcharts.com

Lookin' for support at 75
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HumanPatriot Donating Member (55 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. This is all starting to get really lame...
Edited on Fri Jan-16-04 01:44 PM by HumanPatriot
Judging by your past predictions, Id bank less than a penny on this. How do you explain your track record and reconcile such with this new for sure prediction?

For anyone just tuning in, Id advise that this emergency, "the sky is falling" mentality is extremly dubious. Do not invest on such advice. The sky may fall but not as fast as one would think and not within a distinctly finite number of days as he would like to name.
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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
5. Request for clarification.
Word is from EUzone that the Bucko is expected to thrash around for next 30 days and then tank totally.


Two predictions here:
  • That there will be no discernible trend (not up or down) until sometime around 15-February-2004 (at least that's what I understand from "thrash around for next 30 days" --please correct me if something else was intended).
  • That there will be a downward trend from sometime around 15-February-2004 with a much greater slope than what we're used to seeing the past few months. (how much worse, exactly?)


Request for clarification:

Are you measuring the Dollar movements against the Euro or are you measuring it using this mysterious dollar index (not the one listed on Kitco) which only you know about (because you won't deign to tell anybody about it)?
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Sir_Shrek Donating Member (340 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-16-04 05:16 PM
Response to Original message
6. This is all very interesting information....
With the right strategy in place, someone could make a killing with this kind of info....

Which begs the question....Why are you sharing this with us?
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 04:33 AM
Response to Original message
9. the $ is has already lost, what, 1/3 of its value in 6 months
relative to the euro, e.g.

'thrash around for 30 days then tank totally'?

i think it already *is* tanking totally....
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rapier Donating Member (997 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
10. Troll alert
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 07:17 AM by rapier
All here following Junkers Chicken Little pronouncements must consider the possibiilty that he is a troll.

As most know I have been debunking his predictions, based not upon denials of troubles at the very foundation of the financial world but rather on the impossibility to predict when, or even if, a major dislocation in the financial markets will occur.

This latest offering by him is the silliest. One guy in London knows the real score? Give me a break. Futhermore, while the dollar may rally for a month and then fall again, pretty much like he says, so what. The relentless fall of the dollar over the last 3 months has stocks and now bonds, in major bull trends.

Again I stress, many various scenarios for a panic are possible. That isn't my point. My point is that it is IMPOSSIBLE to determine when of if they will occur.

We are on the edge of a panic right now. Bonds have had a sharp rally and it is possible they could explode upwards as the GSE's are forced to buy bonds to hedge their portfolios, just like this spring. More likely than Junkers prediction of the sky falling is the possibility that long rates and thus mortgages could reach new lows. Imagine mortgage rates at 4%. This would set off another mania of refinancing, and reignite the real estate markets in areas gone soft and set off another round of equity extraction and resultant consumer spending binge. Not something I say will happen but that could and the result would be the exact opposite of Junkers 30 day and the world as we know it ends story.

And then there is his survivalist plan. Show me a survivalist and I will show you someone who is an enemy of progressives. He is a troll.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Perhaps a list is in order...
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 12:55 PM by 54anickel
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jmcgowanjm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. i like your analysis rapier
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 12:18 PM by jmcgowanjm
Imagine mortgage rates at 4%.

Except why would rates hit 4%, meaning 10 years are
at or below 3%, unless the demand for bonds was not there?

No one's borrowing, no construction, no full recovery
mode.

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rapier Donating Member (997 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. notes
Edited on Sun Jan-18-04 09:36 PM by rapier
RE "Except why would rates hit 4%, meaning 10 years are
at or below 3%, unless the demand for bonds was not there?"

You have this 180 degrees off. Interest rates move inversely to bond prices. Rates falling means bonds are rising. A rally in bonds supposes strong demand.

Interest rates are derived from the prices that bonds sell at. The relationship is linear and direct. Intererst rates are not a thing which can be bought and sold. Bonds are. When they are sold the price determines the rate.

you buy a $100,000 bond with a stated return of say 5% today, for of course $100,000. Les't say in a month there is a monster rally in bonds and everyone is now willing to buy 4% bonds. Now the price of you bond has gone up because it is returning 5%, not the current 4%. I'ts all direct and mathmatical. The price you can get on your $100,000 is calculated so that the buyer will be getting a 4% return. So perhaps, and I don't have the tables, you could sell your bond for $110,000.

It is little apprciated how important the 20 year long bull market in bonds has been. Remember rates have been falling for 20 years, because bonds have been rallying. Of course over that time there have been lots of ups and downs but the trend is obvious. You will recall the stories from early summer when everyone was remarking how rate were at 45 year lows. Point made. This relentless trend of increasing bond prices has been fabulously profitable for the financial industry and has acted as more grease for the system.

The system cannot tolerate rising rates. Over that time the total outstanding debt has trippled or more. Everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt, made possible by the low rates which make debt service tolerable. There is no turning back from permanent low rates without causing a huge problem. Of course there is no such thing as a permanent anything in free markets. Which is why 'markets' as understood thruout history are being set aside. The need, the demand that the Fed do ANYTHING to keep rates low is not only universally understood it is univerally applauded. In other words, so much for free markets. Some things are just too important to be left to the markets evidently.
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jmcgowanjm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #19
26. A rally in bonds supposes strong demand.
OK, the yield of a bond drops, the price of the bond has increased.

People want that bond, therefore the bond becomes more valuable, therefore the yield payed will be less. Because they,
the people who issued this bond, want to pay as little yield
as possible.

The bond becomes valuable because it is rare.
Noone's issuing debt because noone wants it w/
deflation, which makes debt onerous, harder to pay because
the same dollars are more valuable to repay
cheaper borrowed dollars.
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jmcgowanjm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #19
27. there is a monster rally in bonds and everyone is now
willing to buy 4% bonds.

There has been a monster rally in bonds and everyone is willing to buy them at 4%.
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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. I know hells angels cause I used to work in 'corrections' and ain't no tr
troll.

As to your assertion that some one who is a survivalist is anti-progressive, you are wrong. Perhaps in your limited awareness, a position has built up in your mind which holds that these are mutually exclusive positions. Wrong.


Just cause I want to watch out for my families financial condition within the broader context of a Kondratief Winter and the Death of a Fiat Currency currently held as the world's reserve currency in a globally based fractional reserve, daily settlement system does not mean that I am anti progressive.

I love your labeling of me. I shall respond and label you a non-thinker non-aware non-looking sheeple who will be shortly sheared by the republicans (73% of the one percentile of richest americans are republicans) as the dollar crashes and the American middle class gets its guts ripped out. I pity anyone depending on your financial accumen and/or awareness as they are basically fucked. Go and open your eyes to information and diversity of ideals.

I find your narrowminded label-prone personality to be both shrill, self delusional and so limited as to make me sure you are into rigid dogma to define Universe. Get a real view of life. Your rigid view of what is 'allowed ' in a personality does not bode well if it expresses the general attitude of the demo's. But, I will excuse your lack of grasp by assuming that your mind is less than 30 years old and as such is still in puberty hangover and thus cannot think properly. Either that or you are a meat eater indulging in flesh foods WAAAY too much.. which leads to rigidity of thinking and limited Universe view (this from ayurveda -something else you are likely to not grasp).

As to experience. I am old and have lived on 4 continents and many countries and speak 8 languages and program in 9 computer languages, and have done a lot of shit and been there with people that stick with you year after year.

And by the way, the real view is
millionaires scoff at astrology,
billionaires use it daily.

AND MY FRIEND IN LONDON is a kick as astrologer.

Here is another astrologer who also is saying heavy shit about to roll down hill, and this guy picked the ABSOLUTE bottom of the gold market to the hour of the day, and he did it 5 months in advance! so there.

Go away kid, you are bothering me.

*************************************************


Mahendra’s latest follows. For new Café members, Mahendra called the NASDAQ rally early this year and a couple of years ago called the bottom of the gold market to the day and did so months in advance. You will enjoy his book should you pick one up.

Dear Friends,

Many of you may have been enjoying my latest book "2004 World & Financial Prophecies". I thank those of you who have purchased the book and for the subsequent comments that you have sent me. I also appreciate your messages of congratulations and goodwill.

I would like to share something very special with you and show in detail how you should plan for the year 2004. I shall endeavour to give you maximum information about what I see and feel concerning the future through astrology. Do not expect that I shall be 100% right, but at the end of the year, I am confident that you shall smile and say in your heart, ‘thank you astrology…thank you Mahendra’. Most of my clients have gained from my work for a long time now. After careful study, research and to talking to my clients, I can say that out of 100 people, 99 of them have gained.

It has taken a long time of struggle and hard work to build faith in my work. Initially, not many people showed any attention when I said that I was predicting the future. However, hard work and patience has seen banks, institutions, funds, corporations and asset management firms become my clients while other players in the world economy closely follow my work. After research, we have found that $5-7 Billion move or shift on long term investments or strategies on the basis of my predictions.

I will recommend a few areas where one can put money as well as highlight important points which will play a key role in world financial markets in 2004.

Currencies

Those who have read my book are aware that I am predicting the Japanese Yen to gain against major world currencies. Since 2002, the British Pound and the Euro have been my favourite currencies. This year, the Yen will gain up to 60 -80 against the US Dollar as well as the Euro and the British Pound. Last week when I predicted the gain of the Dollar against the Pound, Euro, Ausi, Rand etc, I recommended to my clients not to sell the Japanese Yen and they listened. In fact, they bought more Japanese Yen and heeded my recommendation to sell the Euro and the Pound.

Watch list should be – Yen and Russian Rubble

Silver

Many people in the world investor community have closely been following my gold predictions. Those who have read my book will notice that I am more exciting in my silver predictions, even though gold is my favourite metal according to astrology. For 2004, silver will yield unforgettable returns in the short term. I do not intend to give my price projections here because some may think that I am crazy or drunk.

The current level of around $6.20 is a great opportunity to buy silver and the first price target that I am predicting is $7.95, after which unbelievable prices will be attained if silver remains above this level for two days. Previous historic price levels may be reached in the next two years.

After 21st January, the relationship between silver and gold will be broken and for the first time in history, silver will move on its own strength and power. Henceforth, it does not mean that silver will automatically go up whenever gold does.

This is a similar situation to the past when I predicted that the Dollar would go down but the USA stock markets would go up. Therefore, do not make the mistake of basing your silver investments on the gold movements.

The interlinked relationship of the Dollar and metals will also break in the last week of January. If the Dollar gains, it does not mean that metals will go down.

Stock Markets

I have been predicting the downfall of the American stock market for the last two months but the opposite has occurred. However there is an astrological reason behind my prediction. The market has come out of the Bull Run cycle which I predicted for 2003. When one is outside the cycle then it is very dangerous to play. Therefore when I see a risk, I warn well in advance as this is my work’s specialty. I do not emerge on the day when the market has tumbled 500 points and declare that the market has gone down AND FROM HERE NOW LOOKS BAD. This is what the technical analysts and chartists do. I am neither of these and my predictions are wholly based on energy and astrological waves.

From this point, a manipulator could even take the market up a little bit. I will however not advise my close followers to remain in the market because one of these fine days the market will decline slightly and then collapse 500-700 points by the close of the session. I do not want any of my followers to be trapped in such a situation. I also do not believe in making some little money in one or two month’s temporary upward trend only to be later trapped and losing all the gains made as well as your hard earned money.

And yes, I once again predict that the worst decline will be witnessed in the market and that a horrible scenario will unfold after 21st June 2004. This will precipitate widespread panic in the world stock markets but surprisingly, the South African and Russian stock markets will be on an upward trend in 2004. Investors should therefore watch these markets and make appropriate decisions.

Oil

As I have already mentioned in my book, I see a great rise in the prices of crude oil, natural gas and gasoline. Indeed, all energy products will remain very high in 2004. This is the one area that one should not ignore as I see a great rise in energy products. During this year, crude oil prices could go up to $50 to $60.

Property Market

I see a great crash in the land and property markets in Great Britain (London) and in North America. Therefore, do not engage in land and property speculation after March 2004. There will be many reasons that will account for the drop in prices, one of which shall be the hiking of interest rates in Britain and the USA.

Important Note

I know that short term and long-term traders gain and lose large sums of money even in a single day. The gain or loss is based on the individual’s investments. Some take risks for $100, $500 or even $5 million but when it comes to participating with the disadvantaged in society, most people will only commit a minimum amount while many ignore. Whereas they would be willing to risk huge amounts on the prospects of gain, they are reluctant to make a sacrifice for helping those who really need their assistance and find themselves in deplorable situations through no fault of their own. Wherever you are situated in the world, please contribute to charity in your area or anywhere else in aid of those who are in want and needy of your help.

For the short term, a good opportunity to buy gold is between $404 and $408 while for silver it is between $6 and $6.20. One should sell in the stock markets and buy the Japanese Yen. Though the Dollar will attempt to make gains but it will fluctuate a lot now in the next 30 days.

I have decided to be placing updates and write-ups on my website twice a week. They shall cover various issues in the world financial markets as well as other topics of global concern. Therefore, I shall soon be posting my next update in the following ten days.

Weekly information will be available in newsletter but unfortunately you have to subscribe for it. If I give every thing for free then soon I may have to close down my office, internet and website because of non-payment.
Thanks and God Bless,
Mahendra Sharma
www.mahendraprophecy.com


Appendix
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HumanPatriot Donating Member (55 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. If you could emprically prove the stars have anything to do with economics
and at least one of your "chicken little" predictions have come true in the last 3 months, then your words would carry some weight. In the meantime, Ill rely on statistics and real numbers to base life decisions on, most of which, cannot predict a time and hour, as you so aptly name. Junker, if you cannot possible fathom why your credibility is in question, you should probably read some of your posts on this board. IF you mean well for everyone and do have a strong feeling about ecnomic events, there are better ways to state such then make yourself look foolish repeatedly.

Im liberal because Im a scientist, looking for evidence behind every assertaion. If you want the kooks that beleive in the intangible, there are many religous finatics on the right that would heed such a message to a greater extent. You must admit, you parrelel to a man on a street corner holding a sign, "Repent in 30 days, for the end is near". If you truly mean to have your words ring true, by all means, you should back such statements with unemotional hard evidence that will appeal to the academically minded liberal community.
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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Support for silver moves and buying 100 oz bars where-ever they
are to be found....including the hells angels treasury...

the quote below is from the *special* commentary at lemetropolecafe.com on Sun th 18th...(so he is a couple of days late in reporting it).....I cite it as support for what I hear about banksters/suits out trying to scarf up whatever silver they can in 100oz units and even paying a premium....

***********quoted material
More useful silver input:

Hi Bill,
You may have heard this already, but...
I was buying on the dip Thursday, and my local bullion dealer said to me that the refiner/wholesaler that they deal with (one of the 'big' ones, they said) is now paying a .05 cent premium on 100 oz. silver bars. The wholesaler doesn't pay the premium on 90% coins or any other weight of bar... only 100 ouncers. Seems to fit in with what others
are telling you.
Regards,
-Ray

Hi Bill,
Thanks so much for your daily commentary; without it I would feel lost. Just to back up what you were saying about a potential short squeeze in Silver, I wanted to share this with you. I contacted my broker at REFCO about purchasing silver call options at a strike price of $7.00. He gave me the following prices for MAR and MAY:

March $650
May $2,400

Obviously, something big is going to happen before the May options expire. Feel free to spread the word in MIDAS if you feel it is worth
mentioning.

*************************

now in regards to my predictions and credibility (who questions must dispute, not merely call names)....let me paraphase Shaw who said....

"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it."
- George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)


and I say that in this case...
"The power of accurate observation is frequently denied by those who don't have it."


**************************

and I understand that most humans will be pissed to learn that their world is dissolving around their ears and that events will overtake their lives and change everything (like no oil for most to retire and burn up in their RV's and the no money thing coming)...and I can accept that there are many who will castigate, get angry, get into serious denial, et al, but nonetheless, there are some who are thinking, examining, and acting to protect themselves and family against what circumstances can be anticipated.

Bear in mind that we have all lived with, and are living with, the failure of currency globally. It did not start in the US and will not end here. Think Russia/97. The Asian Contagion/98*99. Argentina/01. Turkey/O2*03.....and now who in 04?

Eh?

May well be an ass. May well be not the best voice for the message of 'have a look about, things are not what you are being told'. May well be crazy. But none of those nor any of my other faults make me wrong.

So. Message ain't well received amongst the 'progressives'....ok. Fine. I can move on.

One thing I can be sure of though, in the near future, as events unfold with breathtaking speed, you will think of this moment and consider if you acted wisely with the few days/weeks/month of awareness presented.

Don't take my word for it, the internet is at your command, let it guide you to knowledge (just watch out for the numbers coming out of govt. I think they lie.).

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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. The power of accurate prognostication.
junker wrote:
"The power of accurate observation is frequently denied by those who don't have it."

It's not your powers of accurate observation that some people here (including myself) have issues with (though, perhaps, even that is changing); rather, it's your powers of accurate prognostication that we have issues with. Note that the power of accurate prognostication is frequently proclaimed by those who don't have it.

And I do not think it is the case that people here are taking your predictions of economic catastrophe (I hope I'm not overstating it --please correct me if I am) with a very large grain of salt because they are a bunch of naïve, wild eyed optimists about economic matters. People here take your predictions with a fairly cyclopean grain of salt because, when they are clear, your predictions are specific enough (particularly time wise) as to be rather extraordinary.

Of course it is also not particularly helpful to your credibility when the predictions fail to come true (and the whole astrology thing also greatly undercuts your credibility with me* --though others seem to be more naïve regarding that subject matter).

* Not that you should care a great deal about that.
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rapier Donating Member (997 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. OK
OK, your not a troll, meaning someone here to disrupt. You feel deeply about this stuff.

I would say too deeply.
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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #18
25. Ok, fair appraisal.
But I am not young and have lived this as it happen to the french middle class in the 50/60s as the franc went bleu-ie. And have a long memory for mass pain at the hands of a few corpo-rapists.

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toddzilla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
20. is your basement full of spam and bottled water?
if you run out and buy all this stuff every time you feel the bottom is going to drop out, wouldn't you run out of space eventually?

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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. no. I live in the NW = no basement & am a vegetarian like all wise humans.
and please note, I am as prepared as a poor person can be. I can produce many things from my storehouse of knowledge and experience. Further I have a flexible mind and an accommodatingly open view of Universal events which allows me to see some shit coming.

Do you have gold? Or Silver? Or food? Or any preparations for the future other than debt?

If not, I pity the people to whom you become a burden in this next year or two (it might take you a bit longer than most to crash out but with that attitude, I am sure it is coming).

No offense, but I find the attitude of anti-preparation to be foolish.


The motto of the wise man is semper paratus (usually I amend this to include with a flexible mind).


And as a vegetarian I can
1) eat cheaply and well at the same time
2) promote my health over time rather than reduce it through the consumption of the flesh and its kalapas and sankharas
3) follow right action by not participating in the taking of any being's life
4) prevent the diseases associated with the corporate pollution of the global food body in this the turning year of the tzolkin (and also the mid point of the kaliyuga)
5) bring peace to mind through harmony of intent and action and support (kalapas/sankhara)
6) not rely on evil focused corporate 'food industry' to provide me with food

Do u eat spam?
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toddzilla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 08:22 PM
Response to Reply #21
30. if you want to get technical..
I'm an omnivore, which allows me to subsist on anything with caloric value. Is a bear evil because it eats fish?


I don't really have any assets to speak of, and frankly i don't care. If everything goes to hell as you say it does, it will be survival of the fittest, in which case i'll be fine.


It's not anti-preparation so much as it is, take it as it comes because unless you are more than moderately wealthy, with paid for land and the ability to be self-sufficient, not much you do is going to help in the long term anyway.


i've eaten spam.. it's quite good fried to a crisp on toast.

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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
22. more world events pointing to dollar death
if one were to note the actions/events in the markets now one might think? Hmmmmm? wonder what is happening here?

dollar down, sharply suddenly and decisively (according to technicals) and won't really be coming back.

The key level of support was 93 (on local basket) and they failed to defend that. Now trying to dig out from 85 they ran it up only to have the wave crest and the dollar fall back to its down-trend line.

Plus looks like the futures markets (not these locally but the ones in London/Brussels at the faaaarrrrr end of things in the re-insurance industry) are showing silver to explode by April with a 4 to 5 hundred percent price gain. Plus they are showing the stock market to be basically toast by end of June so no real worries about Bushie getting back in as this is the Summer of Financial Hell as far as the repubs are concerned.

But so few here have a clue nor the eyes to look far enough out to educate themselves so this is basically bye from me.

Now that you have been shown the signs of the avalance coming our way this year, what you do with it is up to you. Me, I got to get busy. Us poor people have to work harder to get ready than the rich republicans we see building super well stocked 'vacation cabins' up here in the Cascades and north into BC.
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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. sorry, forgot to post the data point
The Japanese are competing with the US to see who can print the most money:

Bank of Japan Decides to Pump More Cash Into Economy

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's central bank unexpectedly decided to add cash to the economy, which may help slow the yen's 10 percent rise against the dollar the past year and protect an export-led recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
The bank's policy board decided by a majority vote to raise the upper limit of its target for reserves available to lenders to 35 trillion yen ($326 billion) from 32 trillion yen, the first increase since October. The bank kept monthly purchases of government bonds from lenders unchanged at 1.2 trillion yen.
``We made the decision to clearly show our commitment to overcoming deflation and ensure an economic recovery,'' Governor Toshihiko Fukui told a press conference in Tokyo. The bank must watch currency moves because ``they could become a downside risk for the economy,'' he said.

-END-


Now note that at a critical point, just when the Japanese want to go and spend more in pumping up the dollar, they will discover that their currency is now on its own course independent of the buck and this is due to their own attempt to print themselves enough money to protect their money from its relationship to the dollar. This is a physical impossibility of an amazing level. It was basically stupid of them to begin but Snow forced them into it and has them by the short and snarlies so they keep on keeping on. To succeed (from the Japanese perspective) the BOJ would need to print nearly 6.9 times as much Yen than the Fed does in dollars. This on a daily basis. Can't happen.

So there you go. BOJ on its on path to self destruction, and will inadvertently act as element number 3 in the trigger component of the dollar's death. Won't be long now, already we hear the dogs growling at the doors.....

watch bushies face if he even so much as speaks of the dollar.
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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-20-04 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. oops. You do know that your dollar lost 1% of its value this morning alone
Edited on Tue Jan-20-04 06:39 PM by junker
Of course it COULD'nt happen, but if it did continue to slide at this rate it would be worth-less than a mexican peso in 32 days. Worth-less than a rupee in nearly same time.

At an annualized basis, 1 per cent loss per trading day, with average of 22 trading days in a month.....well you get the idea..

and the 'smart money' expects the rate of decline to rapidly accellerate from here.

Got some alternative to dollar denominated assets?

Oh, and the global housing market will begin a 60-95% decline (in UK/USofA) in asset prices (your homes' 'value' in dollars) with a couple of huge drops starting in late April/early June this year.

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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-21-04 03:56 AM
Response to Reply #24
28. It should be noted...
It should noted that if the dollar slide clearly resumes before mid-February your prediction should be considered failed (as you predicted thrashing around for 30 days and then the fall --which I reckon was supposed to be a rather drastic fall at that).
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junker Donating Member (403 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-21-04 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. yep. You may be correct. Sideways motion *was* expected.
something fundamental has changed in trading patterns globally on all markets both commodities and 'equitiess'/paper.

It may be that the precipice is much closer than anticipated.

The real problem with the predictions are that it is like trying to ski down a hill, chased by an avalance and predict when it will overtake you.

At this point we are looking to the silver market for collapse clues. Once the squeeze starts there then it rolls to gold and then the dollar gets slammed as the CRB takes out 400 (m/l -actual number don't matter at that point as the dollar is worthless).


Anyway, silver market behaving like everything is acellerating rapidly. May well be correct about the 30 days not pertaining, but the indicators are still for
housing market to go early summer with the stock market to go seriously south (around a 20 to 30 per cent drop in very short periods/say a week) around solstice.

Basically, who cares if I am correct in the timing, if you are not prepared for it now, very little chance to correct that in any serious way before hand. AND the die is cast, the river crossed, the avalance started.

As they say in vipassana, 'well, ain't no going back now'.

Via con aurum et argentum, omnes. Et bona fortuna in nova annum ad omni populai terrae.
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