I have to disagree but it's not the time and place to argue philosophy I guess. At least I don't have the time and while DU might have the space it would probably bore the hell out of everyone. I will note that the easiest prediction about post invasion/fall of Saddam Iraq was civil war. I was strongly confident in that probability.
As to predictions of Japans Ministry of Finance ending their Yen selling/dollar buying mania, that has been wrong. They have sold 3.3 trillion yen in Feb.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=abgnCesLtAiU&refer=japanLet me restate that the EU is in all likelyhood going to embark on their own dollar buying regiem soon, if they haven't already. The great currency creation/liquidity machine continues to gain speed. EVERYONE is intent upon debasing their currency. Again I ask what is the sense of trying to figure out which piece of crap currency is 'worth' more?
Is the Yen really deserving of strength against the dollar? Look at these charts. (From a gold bug website I do not endorse per say, nor do I endorse even this conclusion. Just pointing out something) The dollar is near a 50 year low against the yen. This is a trend that to say the least has been long and powerful. Simple common sense says that every trend reverses eventually. Japan I should note is the worlds second largest economy. If one thinks of a currencies strengh in terms of prudent fiscal and monetary policy the Yen deserves a place alongside Argentina perhaps or some other widely scorned nations. We are not so great in that regard either but Japans thing now is totally insane.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/eidetic022404.htmlI just think that relative currency values won't be the source of a systematic crisis. A systematic crisis would come perhaps from a rejection of all currencies, the gold bug case, or by some other means. I'm in the some other means camp but what those means will be I don't know. Ultimately I think it will pertain to credit defaults, probably in the derivatives sphere. That opaque description is a cop out I guess. This moment I would guess that inflation in basic goods and commodities will throw a wrench into US consumption, which is the lynchpin of worldwide 'growth'.