TWO DISASTERS

1920'S AND FIRST DECADE OF 20TH CENTURY

Both result of Conservative policies.

Let Wall Street roll. Free market is always best

Current Disaster is worse than 1920's except for unemployment rate.

Recovery will be worse for no WWII to get jobs.

WALL STREET=RICH MAN'S GAMBLING CASINO

cswinney2@triad.rr.com

which was pretty much easing by 1936. Conservatives in Congress forced an end to many of the programs that had brought the country out of the worst and that is what caused the Great Recession of 1937.

WWII ended the conservative caused recession. FDR's policies had already ended the Depression.

If war cured depressions, we wouldn't be on the brink of one right now. After all, we've got two dandy little wars and no way of winning either.

The stock market crash happened in October 1929. In 1930, the unemployment rate went from 3.2 to 8.7 percent .

So, unemployment, as it relates to the Great Depression--wasn't disastrous as the Great Depression began to really take
hold. The high unemployment rates didn't come until later.

8.7 percent unemployment, in 1930. That's mind blowing, because many assume that the unemployment rate was astronomical
during these times. In fact, the media constantly mentions that we aren't in a Great Depression because unemployment isn't
at 25 percent, like it was during the Great Depression.

Well......

...unemployment didn't reach 25 percent until 1933, a few years after the economy began tanking.

Unemployment steadily increased to that 25 percent peak---just like is happening today.

Just because we aren't at 25 percent unemployment--doesn't mean we aren't headed toward Depression-like circumstances. In fact,
as we see with these statistics about the Great Depression, unemployment wasn't near 25 percent until the country started coming
out of the it and GNP started to tick upward again---in 1933.

We're following....not contradicting...the Great Depression timeline, in my opinion.

- but there is one reason for optimism our recovery could happen sooner rather than later. The Obama administration is embracing science and technology. There are a number of disruptive technologies in development which could spur the next revolution and fuel recovery.

the unemployment rate was figured by including those who were still unemployed after a year, those who could only find part-time or temporary work, etc.

Under President Johnson, I believe, it was changed to just reflect those who are unemployed for the first year. After that, they are dropped from the unemployment roles. Also, those who can only find part-time or temporary work are not included in the unemployment rate. I have read that according to the old way of figuring, we would have about 15% unemployment nationally right now.

I read this on Yahoo news a few months ago. Sorry, I don't have the article.

The unemployment rate currently reflects those who recently lost job and looking for another. If you also count all those people who are under-employed (such as working a part-time job instead of full-time), the true unemployment rate is doubled, appx 15%-16%.

Welcome to DU
:hi:

I've been lurking here for a long time.

Right now the US issues the following unemployment rates: U3 is the official rate, it most fully follow International Labor Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment:

U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.

As to the changes in the Unemployment rate see:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf

HISTORICAL COMPARABILITY
Changes in concepts and methods
While current survey concepts and methods are very similar to those introduced at the inception of the survey in 1940, a number of changes have been made over the years to improve the accuracy and usefulness of the data. Some of the most important changes include:
• In 1945, the questionnaire was radically changed with the introduction of four basic employment questions.....
• In 1967, more substantive changes were made as a result of the recommendations of the President’s Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemployment Statistics (the Gordon Committee). The principal improvements were as follows:
a) A 4-week job search period and specific questions on jobseeking activity were introduced. Previously, the questionnaire was ambiguous as to the period for jobseeking, and there were no specific questions concerning job search methods.
b) An availability test was introduced whereby a person must be currently available for work in order to be classified as unemployed. Previously, there was no such requirement. This revision to the concept mainly affected students, who, for example, may begin to look for summer jobs in the spring although they will not be available until June or July. Such persons, until 1967, had been classified as unemployed but since have been assigned to the “not in the labor force” category.
c) Persons “with a job but not at work” because of strikes, bad weather, etc., who volunteered that they were looking for work were shifted from unemployed status to employed.
d) The lower age limit for official statistics on employment, unemployment, and other labor force concepts was raised from 14 to 16 years. Historical data for most major series have been revised to provide consistent information based on the new minimum age limit.
e) New questions were added to obtain additional information on persons not in the labor force, including those referred to as “discouraged workers,” defined as persons who indicate that they want a job but are not currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or none for which they would qualify.
f) New “probing” questions were added to the questionnaire in order to increase the reliability of information on hours of work, duration of unemployment, and self-employment.

Now the paper also goes into other changes in HOW the unemployment rate calculation has changed over the years, but I just wanted to address the changes under Johnson that was mentioned in the above thread.

An article on the 1995 changes to the Unemployment rates calculation, what is now U-3 was then U-5: What had been U-3, the percentage of unemployed over age 25, was dropped. What had been U-5 became the U-3 rate of today:
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1995/10/art3full.pdf