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Remember that graph Geithner held up to demonstrate how his plan would work?

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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 07:45 PM
Original message
Remember that graph Geithner held up to demonstrate how his plan would work?
Here's his graph and the REAL results.
REAL world data in red, Geithner's "with stimulus" and "without stimulus" in blue.




Link to the original blog/chart:

http://michaelscomments.wordpress.com/2009/06/08/correction-to-the-may-unemployment-chart/
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
1. I always wondered why all of them had "L" as the initial for their middle names
Edited on Wed Jun-10-09 08:22 PM by truedelphi
Barack L Obama
Timothy L Geithner
Ben L Barnake

"L" stands for "Liar" every time.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Larry 'Liar' Summers

:P
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. With all due respect, Obama's middle initial is actually H...
By pointing out that "hypocritical" also starts with an H, I am. of course,
in no way casting asparagus upon on our President.
That would be rude.
Southern manners frown upon rudeness.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. I love the South for its laid back ways and good manners
And enjoy the asparagus from there too. Asparagus is all I have left.

Strawberries all gone - as I cast aspersions on the deer for breaking into the garden and making off with the berries, leaves and stems.

<sigh>
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FiveGoodMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #3
18. As in, "Jesus H Christ, why won't he keep his promises?"
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Common Sense Party Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-14-09 01:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
30. I'm pleasantly amazed at how many people here recognize this for what it is:
A sham. A lie of epic proportions.

A few months back, saying one bad thing about Obama/Geithner's economic "plan" could get you a pizza.
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tom_paine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
4. ROFL.
:rofl: :puke:
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Canuckistanian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 11:08 PM
Response to Original message
5. Whoopsie
They really don't have any better forecasting skills than a chimp with a dartboard, do they?
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-10-09 11:14 PM
Response to Original message
6. Collective face palm...
Everybody now...let's all do the face palm, as a symbol of our stupidity.

Look at this graph. On what was Geithner basing this nonsense????? It's based on NOTHING scientific or meaningful.

He just stood up in front of everyone and said we needed a recovery plan, and that it would help unemployment--now look
at this pretty graph.

God, are we all so dumb????? Are we all that gullible that we never questioned any of this???

I am ashamed...
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. The Powers that Be Dumbed down our education so that we would never ever
Question a graph. Not a graph! Aren't graphs something that occur naturally in science text books? If a graph isn't full of the truth, what is?

I mean, most data in graphs comes to us courtesy of Graphland - a place of huge amounts of numbers and facts and figures.

If it is a fact on a graph, it has to be true, right?

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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 06:58 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. In order to QUESTION a graph, you must first be able to READ it.
Having taught HS social studies, I can tell you that many products of our educational system are unable to demonstrate this basic skill.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. My hat is off to you. I very occasionally tutor math
Edited on Thu Jun-11-09 02:45 PM by truedelphi
And when I find that some 16 year old kids from affluent families do not know that there are four quarters in a dollar, or how to manipulate simple fractions, etc I can only wonder what is going on.

Parents do not seem to wake up and care until it dawns on them that the only college their child will be able to enter is the community college. And their kid will only be allowed remedial classes there until they can prove that they understand the written word and simple algebra equations.

The kids fall asleep the moment the cell phones are tucked away and the lesson begins. Narcolepsy?
Too much MSG from junk food? Too much aspartame? Or what?


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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. I'm certified in math and social studies...
... and I'm amazed at the complete lack of numeracy among HS students.

Of course, I'm sure that has nothing to do with the fact that they start using calculators in middle school. :eyes:

No kidding, most of my current students (juniors and seniors) have to use a calculator in order to add and subtract anything over one digit. Seriously.

And don't even get me started on manipulation of fractions. For some of them, I might as well ask them to translate Greek rather than multiply or divide fractions.

Finally, there are the Pre-Calculus students who cannot even factor a quadratic equation. I had one girl tell me, "I don't do factoring. When I come across a problem that I have to factor, I just skip it." In PRE-CALCULUS!
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westerebus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 07:47 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Common mis-spelling.
GRAFT. Graph. ;)
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. You provided my Big Laugh of the week. Thanks n/t
Edited on Thu Jun-11-09 02:28 PM by truedelphi
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westerebus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. You're more then welcome. n/t
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. and the people in Graphland are known as ...Graphites.
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. And they are very... graphic
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. I questioned it
And I wasn't alone, by a long shot.

This 'stimulus' was just as much BS when it came from Obama as it was when the previous 'stimulus' (another pathetic failure) came from Bush.

Geithner belongs in jail, along with Bernanke, Paulson, Greenspan, and many others.

What we see now is the result of the titans of finance turning the entire economy into one big pump-and-dump scheme.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Sigh.
Edited on Thu Jun-11-09 03:08 PM by truedelphi
IF only others on DU would wake up.

They all have their reasons to support Geithner/Bernanke and others in the criminal cabal.

"Obama is so charming"; "Thank god Bush is gone", "I get a direct depostit Social Security check from our benevolent government so I don't concern myself with the pesky ins and outs of the economy, as I will ever need to work again", goes the songs.

They also expect that if what is happening is bad, it would be Very Bad Today. They don't realize that Romania was not ruined in 200 days - it took close to three years.






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wuvuj Donating Member (874 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
19. Prediction...the little red dots will hit and pass 12% by the end of 2010.
...
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Wednesdays Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-11-09 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
20. K&R
:kick:
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leftofthedial Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-12-09 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
22. Obama's economic team are our enemies.
I don't understand his role in this, the largest crime in world history. He's either willfully stupid or corrupt. I see no other possible explanation.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-12-09 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
23. 98% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
And 100% of Geithner's graphs are made up to appease congress.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-12-09 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
24. First of all, you are doing a wonderful job of repeating right-wing talking points.
Secondly, the economic forecast deteriorated noticeably from January on. Economists underestimated how rapidly unemployment would rise for a given fall in output, which actually was estimated fairly accurately. Given how little stimulus has been allocated this argument is pretty silly.
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marketcrazy1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-12-09 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. think about that graph
it seems to show that the employment picture going forward will be WORSE than what they anticipated without the stimulus plan even WITH the stimulus plan!!!! Yippee!!! for green shoots!!! things are NOT getting better, what we are seeing is a manufactured illusion that cannot be sustained for much longer. I hope everyone is ready.............
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Pale Blue Dot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-12-09 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. You seem to be almost DESPERATE to ignore the facts.
Why is that, I wonder?
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 03:54 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Because he has been shilling his apologist nonsense on DU forever.
Even if he ACTUALLY means well he's more lost than a drunk rat in a maze.

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marketcrazy1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #26
32. here are the facts
Edited on Sun Jun-21-09 01:49 PM by marketcrazy1
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf you will not see these facts on CNBS...........
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. good link. And GULP ....look at 3rd quarter 2008.
Gee, no taxes for the rich, no jobs for the non-rich, how could we possibly run out of money???
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marketcrazy1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. look at the first quarter of 2009
green shoots my ass!!! the U.S. economy suffered the worst credit contraction in history in Q1 09!!! why dont the talking bubble heads on the financial news programs talk about that!!! ( because J6p would shit a brick! thats why!! ) THOSE are the facts! hidden in plain sight! ignorance IS bliss!!!
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 03:57 AM
Response to Reply #24
28. Oh Jesus are you sinking to THIS level now?
Edited on Sat Jun-13-09 03:58 AM by TheWatcher
You've gotten BEYOND pathetic.

Please just go watch CNBC and let the THINKING people converse.

Time to put you to rest FOREVER.

You, Hamden, Heretic, and depakid.

The Four Economic Clowns Of The Apocalypse.

Your PERCEPTION needs a Bailout.

At this rate my Ignore list is going to surpass the population of China by fall.
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-13-09 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. The nice thing about the ignore button is that I have no idea who you were commenting to.
:)
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wuvuj Donating Member (874 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-14-09 07:01 AM
Response to Reply #29
31. Ignorance must be bliss...
... :think:
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sendero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #24
33. "Economists"..
Edited on Sun Jun-21-09 09:34 PM by sendero
... what a load of bollocks. Some idiots around here even think they are "economists" and they have GOTTEN THIS THING WRONG FROM THE START AND CONTINUE TO NOT GET IT. 90% of "economists" never saw this crisis coming AT ALL, while legions of regular joes such as myself saw it coming in 2006.

Any effing moron that thinks this is a garden-variety "recession" that will be over in 18 months is a FUCKING FOOL.

And speaking of FUCKING FOOLS let's talk about Obama's economic team, Timmy and Larry.

THEY ARE IDIOTS. As you will find out in the coming years.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-25-09 02:30 AM
Response to Reply #24
42. But where is the source that Geithner used to come up with these figures?
Edited on Thu Jun-25-09 02:31 AM by truedelphi
I wouldn't be laughing so hard except for the following reasons -
One) one third of the monies allocated for the stimulus recovery package was involved with the rich people getting their tax cuts (Either new or perpetuated from the last cycle of Bush tax cuts)
Two) With ten to eleven trillion given to Wall Street, this means that every American has forked over some $ 25,000 bucks plus. If my household had access to that 50K for the two of us, we could have put together a fabulous ad campaign for our products in Germany. And would have a return on our investment. But no, instead of that, the money has been given away to the Wall Street people, who will probably use it to buy up local utilities and thus increase the costs of maintaining our meagre lives.
Three) At some point in time, it will dawn on Geithner that this money will be devastating in
the manner that it hyper inflates the economy.

I am only laughing because crying is a poorer choice.


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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 07:37 PM
Response to Original message
36. from a Jan 9 article in NYT, private economist predicted 8.5% Unemployment for July
Edited on Mon Jun-22-09 07:43 PM by JohnWxy
It will add massively to the budget deficit,” said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at the PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, who counts himself as an advocate of balanced budgets. “But I am not against running deficits in these circumstances, not with so many people losing their jobs.”


Mr. Hoffman expects the unemployment rate, which jumped to 7.2 percent last month from 6.8 percent in November, to rise to 8.5 percent by July and plateau there for the rest of the year.



http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/business/economy/10jobs.html?_r=1





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marketcrazy1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. will likely see
close to 12 percent by year end if not higher!!
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. are crossing your fingers?
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marketcrazy1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. not crossing my fingers
but praying for a turn around, just dont see it!!
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-23-09 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. Obama and every economist interviewed in the last 6 months has said it will get worse before it gets
better. Geitner said it, Summers said it.

But most people didn't need them to tell them that. In the real world you can't repair an econmy devastated by the biggest Economic Disaster since the Great Depression in 6 months. The REpublicn Deregualtion Disaster would have destroyed the banking industry without the massive intervention on the part of the Government (ALL economists of every political stripe were saying it had to be done). When the banks stopped lending to each other (because they had gotten themselve into a negative net worth(!!) situation - they also stopped lending to everybody else. The Bailout was intended to prevent us from screeching to a full stop and sinking into a Second Great Depression. NOw nobody with any sense is thinking the economy is going to recover from that kind of a Credit Catastrophe in a few months. And the Administration didn't say it would rebuild the economy that quickly either.


In the report issued in January by the Obama team, they pointed out that any unemployment rate forecast had a large degree of uncertainty to it. (they stated in the report that one private economist predicted an unempoyment peak of 11% without a stimulus package). This gives you an idea of the range of estimates (and the degree of uncertainty in estimating the unemployment rate) back in the January time frame. And remember, the Obama team's estimate was made before the figures on the decline in GDP in December of 2008 - which turned out to be larger than expected - were known.

NObody with any intelligence thinks anybody would be able to turn our wrecked economy around in 6 months. It will take about 9 months to a year to begin to climb out of this Republican Dystopia. If you are talking about declining unemployment numbers, don't expect that for about 4 months (in my opinion).

HOwever, re seeing a turn-around here's some results from a Gallup Poll:

Poll: Outlook improving about economy


WASHINGTON — Some Americans are beginning to see light at the end of a long tunnel.

For the past two weeks, the percentage of respondents in The Gallup Poll who say the economy is getting better has been steadily ticking up. Monday through Wednesday, 29% took the optimistic view — the highest number since July 2007.

That doesn't mean everyone's outlook is rosy — 66% continue to say the economy is getting worse — but it does signal a significant improvement in public attitudes after nearly two years of downbeat forecasts. The percentage seeing better times ahead has nearly doubled since March 9, when 15% said the economy was improving and 78% said it was getting worse.


and results of a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Americans are seeing better times ahead
MEXICO, Mo. — Americans say they're still in a tunnel, but more are beginning to see a light at its end.

Fewer people say they've prospered over the past year than in decades, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. Over the past two months, however, expectations for the future have brightened significantly amid rising optimism about a stock market rebound and economic turnaround.

"I think the administration is going in the right direction," says Randall Sawyer, 70, retired from the pulpit at First Christian Church in this Missouri town of 11,000 souls. Sawyer, who voted for Barack Obama last year, isn't sure every part of the president's program will work but says "standing still wasn't working; something had to be done."

Even so, he adds: "I think boom time is a long time away."

Now 36% of those surveyed in the Gallup-Healthways well-being poll say the economy is getting better. That's not exactly head-over-heels exuberance, but it is double the number who felt that way at the beginning of the year and a notable spike in the nation's frame of mind. Thirty-three percent say they're satisfied with the way things are going in the United States; in January, just 13% did.



Note that the gentleman being interviewed, even though he thought things were improving, still realized that it would be some time before things would be really back to "normal" again.




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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #36
39. Already a percentage point beyond that, and a month earlier. nt
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