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Hidden Amid Job Loss News, an Increase in Wages

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steven johnson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 10:24 PM
Original message
Hidden Amid Job Loss News, an Increase in Wages
So, possibly the recession really is easing.



Last winter, stories of companies cutting their workers' pay were everywhere...But that's not what has happened.
Wage growth has picked up in the last several months, according to two different government surveys. You don't hear or read nearly as many stories about pay cuts these days. Even though unemployment has reached its highest level in 26 years, most workers have received a raise over the last year.
That contrast highlights what I think is one of the more overlooked features of the Great Recession. In the job market, at least, the recession's pain has been unusually concentrated.
And it hasn't been concentrated in the typical way. Nearly every region and every demographic group has indeed been affected. But the pain has been concentrated within groups.
People who have lost their jobs are struggling terribly to find new ones. Since the downturn began in 2007, companies have been extremely reluctant to hire new workers, and few new companies have started. The economy and the job market are churning very slowly.


Hidden Amid Job Loss News, an Increase in Wages
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doc03 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-15-09 11:45 PM
Response to Original message
1. I think the wage increase may be from
employers forcing workers to work more overtime rather than recall workers. Usually that is what happens before employers recall or hire new workers.
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-16-09 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Close
it's OT specific to the auto sector, servicing the cash for clunkers program. The auto corps know that it is temporary and thus are not bothering to hire, just extending hours for the people who haven't yet been laid off.

This is typical of the "green shoots" - manipulate a market with money borrowed from China, then point to the minor blip in the statistics as a sign of recovery.

Pay no attention to the soaring debt levels and default rates behind the curtain.
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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-17-09 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yep. Could this also be swayed by firing more lowly paid workers than execs?
Is this an average statistic?
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-17-09 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. It's worse than average
it's 'hedonically imputed', meaning they take the raw numbers and adjust them by whatever fudge factor they need to get the result they want.
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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-18-09 01:17 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. HAH!!!!!! Is that a fact?!?!
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-18-09 02:05 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Yep
go check out for yourself what kinds of sausage factories these statistics are made in. There's not a single government-issued economic statistic that can be taken at face value.
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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-19-09 01:42 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Disgusting.... utterly categorically disgusting n/t
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-18-09 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. If so that is a very good sign.
That is usually the last sign before employment picks up.

Eventually the cost of overtime exceeds the cost of new employees and the amount of overtime exceeds what employees are willing to work.

Then employers expand employment.
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