Economists say recession is over, but jobless rate will stay high

Source: ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

Members of the National Association for Business Economics think that the recession is over, but that the unemployment rate will remain almost as high a year ago as it is now. Those are the highlights of a survey the association released today during its annual convention in St. Louis. Specifically, the survey found:

* 81 percent of NABE members believe that the recession has ended, and members’ median forecast for gross domestic product growth in 2010 is 3 percent. Lynn Reaser, incoming NABE president and an economist at Point Loma Nazarene University, remarked that the consensus forecast is definitely for a V-shaped recovery, not a “W” or any other letter of the alphabet.
* Unemployment will reach 10 percent by the end of this year, up from the current reading of 9.8 percent, and will remain at 9.5 percent at the end of 2010.
* Nearly three-quarters of economists think financial markets will be back to normal in 2010. Twenty-one percent expect a return to normalcy this year, 21 percent say it will happen in the first half of next year and 29 percent say we’ll get there in the second half of next year.


The economists also were optimistic about the housing market. Sixty-five percent said home prices either have already hit bottom or will do so by the end of this year. An additional 17 percent said prices will bottom out in the first quarter of 2010.

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/mound-city-money/us-economy/2009/10/economists-say-recession-is-over-but-jobless-rate-will-stay-high/

Economists are whores.

"...the unemployment rate will remain almost as high a year ago as it is now..."

I'm sorry, it's been a long day, but can someone explain to me what that is supposed to mean? How can something 'remain' what it is now 'a year ago'?

:crazy:

I bet it should, sadly, say...

"...the unemployment rate will remain almost as high a year from now as it is now..."

It will not be completely over until unemployment is back to normal which I think is about 7%.

And 9 out of 10 economists are full of shit.

do not live the world you and I inhabit. I agree with your statement - that they are full of shit.

but here in Northern California, more than 1 in 10 people are unemployed. :(

things are not at all good, going by the number of empty commercial buildings you see driving along the interstate. I've driven this route many times before, and it never look this bad.

If you don't have a job or any hope of finding one, or if the job you have now is a mere shadow of the good job you once had, then the recession is far from over.

It won't take much longer if it is not painfully clear already.

what if with growth we are screwed anyway, and if doing less harm (less harmfull jobs and consumerism) to environment and Earth's carrying capacity was actually not a bad idea?

What are you, some kind of Luddite? I bet you want to see us all go back to living in caves. Damn anarcho-primitivists are everywhere these days.... Grumble, grumble.
:sarcasm:

I agree. A bit less doing and making would be fine with me.

is that instead of freedom from (wage) slavery the vast majority is still demanding more jobs, however menial, degrading and harmfull to environment and over-all well-being those jobs are - how many silver coins does one get for one's soul in todays job market? We are doing this to ourselves while whining about "evil corporations".

I don't want no fucking job - or a boss serving the interests of blood sucking do-nothing stockholders (the class living of interests - which is just fancy form of slavery). I wan't a livelihood that is dignified, not against nature, not too hard but enough healthy toil to stay in good shape. I'm not better than the next one, I just don't pretend anymore that I'm not in need of healing and security, feeling part of nature - instead of feeling just part of a machine.

depression remains for the people.

a year ago as it is now." What? That makes no sense.

Surely the journalist meant "the unemployment rate will remain almost as high NEXT year (or A YEAR FROM NOW or IN 2010) as it is now."

As far as the "recession is over," all I have to say is, lies and the lying liars.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/">Nouriel Roubini: "The real economy still looks very weak"

Nouriel Roubini told the BBC that he is concerned about the growing gap between the "bubbly and frothy" stock markets and the real economy.

Over the last six months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 45%.

But Mr Roubini says he sees an economy where consumers are "shopped out" and "debt burdened".

'Crisis not over'

Based on the run up in share prices in recent months, investors appear to be betting that good times are around the corner. A view not shared by Mr Roubini.

"The crisis is not yet over," the New York University professor said.

"I see an economy where the consumers are shopped out, debt burdened, they have to cut back consumption and save more.

"The financial system is damaged... and for the corporate sector I don't see a lot of capital spending because there is a glut of capacity."

Mr Roubini believes US house prices have further to fall, straining America's fragile recovery.

... they couldn't accurately forecast their next bowel movement.

anymore, see?

That is so, last century... get over that working thing

:sarcasm:

then the fucking economists.

Let's not kill those people, just their jobs. Sometimes if not allways less jobs (etc.) is better.