A newly release Bush File that was a briefing paper for O'Neill.
http://thepriceofloyalty.ronsuskind.com/thebushfiles/archives/000090.htmlIraq and the U.S. Economy
During the fall of 2002, the Bush administration was busy developing plans for an invasion of Iraq. As a part of this effort, the Treasury Department was directed to study the possible economic impact of a Middle East war. The briefing was not intended for the president, however, but for Vice President Cheney, who was coordinating Iraq policy. Treasury's research resulted in a September 11, 2002, memo to Secretary O'Neill preparing him for his meeting with Cheney. The document, written by assistant secretary Richard Clarida, found that a war was unlikely to "derail the expansion," but it did project a worst-case scenario that could reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percent, raise unemployment by three-tenths of a point, and increase inflation. Clarida's forecast, however, deals only with the impact from fluctuations in the price of oil. Not until the last two paragraphs of the four-page memo does he acknowledge that the economic impact of war might not be limited to rising oil prices. War could have unpredictable consequences for the American economy.... snip ...
Wonder if anyone else anticipated that gasoline prices would increase with this war?
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