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Why gold could hit $5,000

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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 07:52 AM
Original message
Why gold could hit $5,000
With turmoil overseas and energy prices on the rise, investors are worried. They're worried about geopolitical risk. They're worried about a falling dollar. And they're worried about inflation becoming entrenched as the Federal Reserve continues to administer its cheap-money medicine despite signs of inflation.

As a result, gold is on the move again. For much of last year, gold moved higher over worries about Europe's debt crisis and a "double dip" recession in the United States. Prices fell into a funk in the fall, though.

Believe it or not, some analysts are calling for prices to move close to $5,000 -- not immediately, but sooner than you may think.

The road to $5,000 gold
This is because, according to the folks at Standard Chartered Bank, gold is moving into a new "super-cycle" as a number of structural factors -- including consumer demand from Asia and tepid growth in supply -- combine to push prices higher. The team, led by Dan Smith, is looking for prices of $2,107 an ounce in 2014 as its base forecast.

The team's members see the potential for much more. In their words, "statistical modeling suggests a possible 'super-bull' scenario of gold prices rallying up to $4,869 in nominal terms by 2020."

It's all about supply and demand.

http://money.msn.com/investment-advice/why-gold-could-hit-5000-dollars-mirhaydari.aspx?GT1=33036


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RandomThoughts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 07:56 AM
Response to Original message
1. And if it is about supply and demand.
Then to make money, lower supply and put people in hardship.

Or increase labor supply to make money, and put people in hardship.

Why the system has to be regulated by advocates for the people.



And why some try to remove justice, so that regulation wont stop them by accurate enforcement.
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Scuba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
2. Should the right wing manipulators get their way, eventually...
...they'll have nothing to eat but gold, diamonds and paper certificates.
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MineralMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
3. Ah, More Goldbuggery, I See.
Good luck with your investment.
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. The only gold I have is the ring on my finger
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Mira Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-11 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. I've done really well with Gold, can I have yours since you don't seem to want it? n/t
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abelenkpe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-11 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. It is probably a good idea to sell right about now.
Or at least soon.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:27 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Sell? in exchange for what? n/t
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abelenkpe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Yeah there's the problem.
Read an article recently claiming google, apple, gold were all things that were at their top and should be sold. And that was my question too, where would one put the money after selling? In a bank savings account getting .1 percent interest? Would it be safe there? In real estate that keeps dropping? In the stock market that also looks pretty over inflated?
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-04-11 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. Really-- in exchange for what?
It's not like the early '90s when I could get 7% or 8% interest on a long-term CD. Stocks are non-tangible blips that can be issued in unlimited quantities and are manipulated by crooks. And real estate is a gamble on the double-zero at the roulette table.
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-04-11 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. Yet I have somehow made more % gains on these "blips" the last couple of years
than anyone has made in gold.
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 08:10 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Are you sure about that?
That's quite a claim.
If making so much money on blips was so easy, everyone would be doing it.
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. abso-fricking-lutely sure, and not even a stretch claim.
Edited on Thu May-05-11 04:56 PM by dmallind
In the last two years gold has gone up 61.7% from 910 two years ago.

The Dow is up 52.5% in 2 years from 8250 (but up 90% in 26mos - WAY more than gold)
NASDAQ up 63.7% from 1720
SP500 up 51.7% from 880

These by the way are being very literal 2 yrs - all markets had strong gains two years ago this week and fell today. You may be tempted to say "hah- I must be right because gold has outperformed 2 of 3 indexes" but that assumed no guided investments at all - the equivalent of just saving money in the equities markets instead of banks and taking what the general trends give you (and even then NASDAQ beat gold). This however is brain-dead investing that takes no knowledge whatsoever. Start picking some winners - even very easy ones - and 61.7% is a piece of cake.

Ford was my single biggest stock investment in the last two years when everyone was panicking about auto stocks. It took nothing beyond a bit of attention to the news to know Ford was in the best financial position of the big 3 and dragged down way too much by association with GM etc - hardly a genius insight beyond the ability of hoi polloi. I didn't even get near the bottom (in the 4s) and bought in low 6s. Today it closed on a down day at 15.08 - about a 150% gain that well over doubles that of gold. I can't honestly claim those gains for all my portfolio, and indeed I rely on broad market-tracking funds for most of it to be honest, but I play individual stocks for some of it, and have averaged 78% overall (no way to prove that of course beyond sharing statements which I'm not likely to, but hopefully the above easily verifiable data will demonstrate it's far from an unlikely claim that would take a special genius to achieve - a blithering idiot would have made gains comparable to gold in these "blips" over the sane period - a bit extra takes only a little bit of market savvy, which trust me is all I would claim for myself)
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bossy22 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 08:22 AM
Response to Original message
4. once the fed reserve raises rates
gold will plummet.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. And the rate hike will come when?
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Not until 2012 or 2013.
The gov't cannot afford higher rates. Our interest payments will become unbearable very quickly.
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abelenkpe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Wouldn't that be a good time to nationalize the banks then? nt
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westerebus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. The Bernank said:
nothing will happen to rates until after the next two FMOC meetings.

Stocks sell in May and go away.
Then in June QE2 says, adieu.
If July on the beach, do you get sand in your shorts?
The dog days of August by all reports.
Wait for the Bears to support my comports.
If for nothing else, PIMCO punked the reds, from the FED's own bed.
Is the cupboard bare of the silver so fair?
That the dip is but a blip on the way to the moon.
Some old wiseman in the woods called tune, BTFD and dance like a Loon.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Ayuh
While little Mother Masters
Went to the COMEX cupboard
To get poor Jamie a brick

But her shorts were all bare
And China'd been there
While the chairsatan has not a care

Pimpco may be wise
As S&P screams demise
Q2 GDP proves a witch in disguise

Coffee and crude are at par
A bribe with chocolate goes far
Rest well with Ruger and a long Ag bar








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orangeapple Donating Member (167 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #4
15. you're right
The run in gold is a play on The Bernank's malfeasance. It will continue as long as he does...

I expect by the time the Bernank (or more likely his successor) throws in the towel it will take Volcker-esque rates to break the back of inflation and restore confidence in the dollar.
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-04-11 05:36 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. The run up on gold has been occurring for 9 years
long before the appearance of "The Bernank". Raising rates at this stage will just increase the US debt burden, so that's not likely to help. It's a much different world today than in 1979 when Volcker came on the scene and the US debt was a more manageable few hundred billion.
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buddysmellgood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 10:21 AM
Response to Original message
6. Tulips too!
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tucsonlib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-11 11:00 PM
Response to Original message
8. Sounds Familiar
Like those experts predicting a 30,000 Dow not so very long ago....
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abelenkpe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-11 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. exactly! nt
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
13. Get used to dollar devaluation and stagflation.
That is the future of this country, as long as it exists.
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